Allan Lichtman, the historian dubbed the “Nostradamus” of US presidential elections, has predicted that Kamala Harris will win the White House in November’s poll. Having previously warned the Democrats of the dangers of removing Joe Biden from the ticket, Lichtman nevertheless forecast that the vice-president, who became the party’s nominee after the president withdrew in July, would be elected in a video for the New York Times. He said Harris was on course to beat Donald Trump even though the Democrats had effectively surrendered the valuable key of presidential incumbency, one of 13 he used to determine the likely outcome.
“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States – at least that’s my prediction for the outcome of this race,” Lichtman, 77, says at the conclusion of the quirky seven-minute video, which features him running in a track athlete’s garb, against other elderly competitors in a qualifying race for the 2025 national senior Olympics. “But the outcome is up to you. So get out and vote.”
Lichtman’s predictions are based on a set of true/false propositions, and take no account of polling trends. He previously vociferously argued against replacing Biden as Democratic nominee after his disastrous debate performance against the former president in June and dismissed the validity of opinion polls indicating it had damaged Biden’s ability to win the race.
Nevertheless, of 13 keys, he found eight favoured Harris – who he said gained from the absence of a strong third party candidate following the demise of Robert F Kennedy Jr’s independent campaign, positive short- and long-term economic indicators, major legislative achievements enacted by the Biden administration, and absence of social unrest or scandal attached to the White House. She was also favoured in not having had to undergo a party nomination battle to succeed Biden, as other mooted candidates quickly lined up to endorse her before last month’s Democratic national convention.
Even if two still unanswered keys on foreign policy successes or failures fell in Trump’s favour, they would not be enough for him to win the election, according to the formula.
A history professor at American University, he has been forecasting the results of US presidential elections since 1984 and claims to have accurately predicted all but one – George W Bush’s contested triumph over Al Gore in 2000, which was decided after the US supreme court ruled in Bush’s favour following weeks of legal wrangling over disputed ballots.
Lichtman claims even that blemish is unjustified, arguing that thousands of disallowed ballots had been cast by voters who had tried in good faith to back Gore, the then vice-president and Democratic candidate, but had inadvertently spoilt their ballot papers.
Lichtman’s Keys: How They Work
Lichtman’s “keys” are meant to distill a sprawling range of political, economic, and social factors into a set of easily digestible true/false statements. If six or more of the 13 keys are false, the incumbent party will lose the election. Should five or fewer be false, it is expected to win. The keys are meant to provide a broader context for election outcomes, going beyond simple polling data.
The Keys in Harris’s Favor
Lichtman’s model suggests that Harris is on track to win the election. He said the keys were in Democratic Party’s favor, in part due to the lack of a strong third-party candidate, the U.S. economy not being in recession, key acts of the Biden administration such as the Inflation Reduction Act, and absence of sustained social unrest. In addition, the absence of a party nomination battle, which would have brought out the potential for internal divisions, has also been a key factor.
The Keys That Could Still Shift
While Harris is currently on track to win, Lichtman identified two keys that could still shift in Trump’s favor, and potentially alter the election outcome: foreign policy successes or failures and social unrest.
Foreign Policy:
These two keys are heavily influenced by the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, both of which are fraught with uncertainty. Lichtman acknowledged that these wars are “always unpredictable” and could have a significant impact on the election.
Social Unrest:
The potential for social unrest remains a concern, with the nation facing a backdrop of economic woes and political polarization. Lichtman believes that the recent events at Arlington Cemetery, where Trump was accused of using military graves for political purposes, could have a negative impact on his campaign.
The Uncertainties Remain
Despite his prediction, Lichtman cautions that the election outcome is ultimately up to the voters. He acknowledges that the final few weeks leading up to the election are always filled with twists and turns, and the outcome could still hinge on unexpected events.
Lichtman's Legacy and the Future of US Presidential Predictions
While Lichtman’s prediction has generated significant attention, it’s important to remember that the “keys” are just one factor in the complex equation of US presidential elections. Critics argue that the model is overly simplistic and does not adequately account for the nuances of political campaigns.
Lichtman’s prediction, however, is a testament to the enduring fascination with predicting election outcomes. As the US heads into another election cycle, the quest to forecast the future continues.
The Last Word: Will We Get a 2016 Rerun or a Surprising Shift?
In the end, only time will tell if Lichtman’s prediction will be accurate. The 2024 election is shaping up to be a highly contested affair, and the race could go down to the wire. One thing is certain: the US electorate will be closely watching to see if Lichtman’s model holds up against the unpredictable tides of American politics.
