British Columbia voters will decide today which party will form the next provincial government. It’s general voting day and the polls are open across the province from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. PT. For residents who live in communities that observe Mountain time, polls are open from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. MT. Voters in British Columbia braved torrential rain and high winds across much of the province to take part in an election where they face a choice that would have been unthinkable just a few months ago. The B.C. Conservatives, who won less than two per cent of the vote last election, stand on the brink of forming government or becoming the Official Opposition, with leader John Rustad challenging New Democrat incumbent David Eby to be premier.
Rustad's unlikely rise came after he was thrown out of the Opposition, then known as the BC Liberals, joined the Conservatives as leader, and steered them to a level of popularity that led to the collapse of his old party, now called BC United — all in just two years. Rustad shared a photo on social media Saturday morning showing himself smiling and walking with his wife at a voting station, with a message saying, "This is the first time Kim and I have voted for the Conservative Party of BC!"
More than a million British Columbians – roughly 28 per cent of registered voters – have cast their votes in the election already. Barring an extremely tight result, B.C. residents should know by the end of the day whether the B.C. NDP has secured another four-year mandate or the B.C. Conservatives have completed their astonishing rise from political obscurity to form the province's first Conservative government in nearly a century. Those who haven't voted yet were met by heavy rain and localized flooding on election day in many parts of the province.
Environment and Climate Change Canada issued wind and rain warnings for most of Vancouver Island, the Lower Mainland and the south and central coasts on Friday, as an atmospheric river made its way to shore. By Saturday, the weather agency had upped its estimated rainfall totals to more than 100 millimetres across most of Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland, and traffic impacts were reported around Metro Vancouver due to flooded roads. The B.C. River Forecast Centre also issued flood watches for the island and most of the coast in response to the storm. A flood watch means that "river levels are rising and will approach or may exceed bankfull. Flooding of areas adjacent to affected rivers may occur," according to the centre.
Election Day: A Close Race in B.C.
The polls are open in the 43rd British Columbia provincial general election, marking the conclusion of a four-week campaign period that saw a record number of ballots cast in advance. Elections BC says a record number of British Columbians have already cast their ballots in advance voting before Saturday’s provincial election. The elections body says just over a million people have voted, representing more than 28 per cent of all registered electors and putting the province on track for a big overall turnout. In the last poll conducted before election day, the BC NDP is favoured to win a third term. However, it’s a close race between the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives. An Ipsos poll conducted in partnership with Global BC showed the NDP with a very slim two-point advantage over the Conservatives as the 2024 campaign reached the finish line. Voters are encouraged to bring their "Where to Vote" card with them to vote. Voters must also prove their identity and address by showing acceptable ID, or by having someone vouch for them.
Weather Disruptions on Election Day
But an atmospheric river weather system drenched the south and central coasts on Saturday, and Elections BC said the rain had hampered voting at several locations hit by power outages. Sites in Kamloops, Langley and Port Moody, as well as on Hornby, Denman and Mayne islands, were temporarily closed due to power outages, with election officials redirecting the public to other locations. All had reopened by mid-afternoon, Elections BC said. The BC Hydro outage map showed several thousand customers were without power in the Lower Mainland and on the Sunshine Coast Saturday afternoon, along with about 500 on Vancouver Island, down from higher numbers earlier in the day.
The Impact of Weather on Voter Turnout
Mike McDonald, co-host of the Hotel Pacifico podcast on B.C. politics and a former chief of staff for former premier Christy Clark, said he was expecting a "very close, nail-biter" election. To win a majority, a party must secure 47 seats in the 93-seat legislature. "We saw that in 2017, where the fate of British Columbia's government was decided on one seat in the Comox Valley that was won by (the NDP by) 189 votes," he said. "The real message here for British Columbians is, if you want to see a particular outcome in this election, you've got to get out … and vote." More than a million already had, even before polls opened. The advance voting record was smashed, with more than 28 per cent of all registered electors voting early, potentially putting the province on track for a big final turnout.
McDonald said the inclement weather in some of the province's largest population centres may play a role if the race between the NDP and Conservatives is as close as polls indicate. "So that would favour the voter base that's more resolved, that's more committed, more motivated to turn out to the polls," McDonald said. He said there had never been a B.C. election where more than two million people voted, a milestone that could be breached this year. "That can be a good sign for the opposition (Conservatives), but we also have to look at the fact that people are turning out because they don't want the Conservatives," he said. "It's a much more polarizing election this time, and that may be inducing NDP voters to get out as well."
A Polarizing Campaign
It has been a strikingly negative campaign. Eby, who has depicted Rustad and some of his candidates as extremists and conspiracy theorists, said Friday that he had "left nothing on the table," and had "no regrets about the campaign." Rustad, who did not make himself available to reporters in the final days of the campaign, has called Eby a serial liar. "The 2024 B.C. election mirrors the same nasty polarization seen in the U.S. presidential campaign, with the B.C. NDP spending most of its time attacking Conservative candidates over indefensible racist and sexist remarks," said Jeanette Ashe, a political science faculty member at Douglas College. "This left little room for the B.C. NDP to address the real issues BCers care about, like affordable housing and health care."
Overlapping Platforms
But on several fronts, the NDP and the Conservative platforms have overlapped. Both are pledging tax breaks, with Eby promising a cut worth $1,000 for most households and the Conservatives promising the "Rustad Rebate," which would eventually make up to $3,000 a month in rent or mortgage payments tax deductible. Eby says he'll scrap the provincial carbon tax if the federal government drops its requirement for the tax, and will instead shift the burden to "big polluters," while Rustad says he'll scrap the carbon tax completely. And both parties say they support a greater emphasis on involuntary care to deal with the province's overlapping crises of homelessness, mental health and addictions. Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau has said there is little to separate the two main election contenders, citing involuntary care and their stances on the fossil fuel industry. Her party, which is hoping to retain a presence in the legislature where it currently has two members, is promising a "windfall profits tax" on oil and gas companies, as well as investment in infrastructure and climate action.
A Historic Shift
On one matter, all three parties converge: their platforms would result in big first-year increases to the deficit, pushing it to about $9.6 billion under the NDP and Green plans, and near $11 billion under the Conservatives. Regardless of the election outcome, it has been a stunning rise for B.C. Conservatives and Rustad, brought about in large part by the Shakespearean fall of Official Opposition Leader Kevin Falcon of BC United, who pushed the self-destruct button on his own party less than two months ago. Falcon had thrown Rustad out of the party in 2022 over his online backing for a climate-change skeptic. But it was Falcon who paid the price. BC United support cratered following a disastrous name change from the BC Liberals that Falcon had championed, and in late August, Falcon stood beside Rustad and ended United's campaign in order to avoid vote splitting. That triggered fury from some United legislators who went on to run as Independents, either snubbed or unwilling to join the B.C. Conservatives. If they win, those Independents could hold the balance of power if the election is close.
Ultimately, McDonald said the 2024 B.C. election would be remembered for the "shakeup" of the province's right-leaning political landscape. This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 19, 2024. © 2024 Times Colonist
Election Results: A Night of Uncertainty
Polls close across the province at 8 p.m., and Elections BC anticipates that the use of electronic tabulators this year will lead to faster reporting of results. CTV News Vancouver will be airing a live, commercial-free election special beginning at 6 p.m. on TV and here on CTVNewsVancouver.ca. On election night, Global News will have robust coverage online and on the air, through both television and radio broadcasts. Starting at 7 p.m., right after the News Hour, our anchors, reporters and two panels of experts will break down the results as they come in and look at what it all means for British Columbians. Chris Gailus, Sophie Lui and Keith Baldrey will be anchoring the coverage from the Global BC studios. Reporter Richard Zussman will be providing results as they come in. Sarah MacDonald will be at the BC NDP headquarters, Jordan Armstrong will be at the BC Conservative headquarters and Kylie Stanton will be at the BC Green Party headquarters.
