The Toronto Blue Jays (69-78) are on the home stretch of a disappointing season, but that doesn't mean we can't find value in backing the Blue Birds. On Friday night, they host the St. Louis Cardinals (74-72) for the opener of a three-game interleague set. The Cards are also on the outside looking in when it comes to the postseason picture.
So, motivation becomes the question, and my Cardinals vs. Blue Jays predictions like the bats to do some home cooking tonight.
Cardinals vs. Blue Jays Predictions
Check out my MLB picks to learn why I'm backing offense from the Jays.
My best bet: Blue Jays team total Over 3.5 (-145 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Despite this being a lost season for the Toronto Blue Jays, there's no doubt that the team has been much more fun to watch since the trade deadline, when they restocked the farm system and allowed more young guys to get at-bats. Watching Vladimir Guerrero Jr. crush baseballs at a ridiculous rate hasn’t been too bad either.
So, with Vladdy leading the way and guys like Spencer Horwitz, Joey Loperfido, and Will Wagner finally giving him support, the Blue Jays lineup has been productive. Even, dare I say, good?
Well, that’s what the numbers say. Toronto ranks ninth in batting average, sixth in OPS and wRC+ since the start of August and I like them to continue that trend when they dig into the batter’s box tonight against St. Louis Cardinals starter Erick Fedde.
The Cardinals acquired Fedde from the Chicago White Sox at the trade deadline, and somewhat surprisingly, he hasn’t pitched as well with his new team. The 31-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 4.30 ERA and a 5.09 FIP while surrendering a .756 OPS over seven starts as a member of the Red Birds.
Fedde also made a start against the Blue Jays earlier in the season as a member of the White Sox, and they tagged him for five earned runs on seven hits over six innings of work (more on that outing down below).
When you also consider the fact that the St. Louis bullpen has been an average-at-best group in the second half of the season (18th in xFIP, 24th in strikeouts per nine innings) and the Blue Jays have some value when it comes to cashing the Over on their team total on Friday night.
My best bet: Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 RBI (+195 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Anyone who reads my Blue Jays picks regularly knows we’ve spent a lot of time betting on Guerrero RBIs this season. Can you blame us though? Anyways, we’re going to give Vladdy the night off tonight and instead turn to his teammate, Daulton Varsho.
Varsho is a gold-glove caliber center fielder, and like many of his teammates, he’s been more productive at the plate following the trade deadline. The left-handed slugger is hitting .252 with a .759 OPS, including five doubles, a triple, and a dinger, and has driven in 12 runs.
He also really enjoyed his last matchup with Fedde. Varsho went 2-4 in that game with a home run and an RBI. He's 3-7 in his career vs. Fedde, with two of those hits leaving the ballpark. That works out to a .499 expected batting average and a 1.129 expected slugging.
The Blue Jays have hit the Over in 33 of their last 49 games at home for +17.90 Units and a 33% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Blue Jays.
Key Matchups: Fedde vs. Blue Jays Offense
The Blue Jays lineup has been on fire since the trade deadline, and Fedde's recent struggles make him a vulnerable target. They are a team that has a lot of potential and have been showing glimpses of it. The Blue Jays have been generating some exciting hits, and they are a group that has the ability to get things going. The offensive side of the ball has been the biggest factor in that, and a lot of the key players have been doing really well recently. With the Blue Jays offense being strong, it's not a surprise to see them performing this way.
Toronto's recent offensive surge against Fedde makes it a tempting play to back the Blue Jays team total over 3.5, especially considering how Fedde has been struggling lately. The Blue Jays offense has the ability to take advantage of Fedde's weaknesses and make him pay for his errors on the mound. With this in mind, it's an attractive bet to take the over on the Blue Jays team total, as they have the potential to put up a lot of runs against Fedde.
The Cardinals' Offense vs. Gausman
Kevin Gausman has had a solid season with the Blue Jays and has been effective at containing opposing offenses. The St. Louis Cardinals have been struggling to get their offense going, and this will be a tough matchup against Gausman, who knows how to keep hitters off balance. Despite being on the road, the Cardinals have a solid offense, but Gausman's experience and success against them make it a tough proposition for them to score a lot of runs. The Cardinals offense has struggled in recent games, and Gausman will be a tough opponent for them. It will be a challenge for them to score runs against a pitcher like Gausman, who is known for his pitching prowess and ability to keep hitters at bay.
Bottom Line
The Cardinals and Blue Jays both look to be on the wrong side of the playoff race, but that doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun watching these two teams duke it out in this interleague series. The Cardinals will be looking to turn things around, and the Blue Jays will be hoping to continue their hot streak. The Blue Jays have been trending in a better direction as of late, and the Cardinals are struggling. This is a tough matchup for the Cardinals, and they will be looking to turn things around against a pitcher like Gausman who has been performing well. The Cardinals offense is still a force to be reckoned with, but it will be a tough task for them to overcome Gausman's pitching and the Blue Jays' home-field advantage.
