Vying for a place in the new-look Champions League group stage, Bodo/Glimt and Red Star Belgrade meet for the first leg of their playoff tie on Tuesday. Serbian champions Red Star travel north of the Arctic Circle, as they square off with a side that has already fought through two rounds of qualifying.
Prior to their promotion into Norway's Eliteserien in 2017, Bodo/Glimt were seen as outsiders and they initially struggled, but under the management of head coach Kjetil Knutsen they have since dominated domestically and become European regulars. Having toppled both Celtic and Roma in recent years, Glimt were favourites to progress from this year's second qualifying round tie against Latvia's RFS, to whom they duly dealt out a 7-1 aggregate defeat. To reach the playoffs, they then overcame Jagiellonia Bialystok by winning 1-0 in Poland and later finishing the job with a 4-1 victory back on home turf. The three-time Norwegian champions have never qualified for the Champions League's group stage, but they were present in the playoff round two years ago, before going on to take part in the Europa League.
Knutsen's side then competed in last season's Europa Conference League, unluckily losing to Ajax in the knockout round playoffs after making it through a group that featured Lugano, Besiktas and Club Brugge. Already deep into their domestic campaign, Glimt are eight points clear at the top of the Eliteserien standings, but they were spared a league fixture between beating Jagiellonia and Tuesday's big game. As a seeded side in these playoffs - and boasting a much greater history in UEFA competition than their opponents - Red Star may expect to progress after next week's return leg in Belgrade. The 1991 European champions have been less successful of late, but they reached the Champions League group phase in both 2018 and 2019, before returning last year following a handful of Europa League campaigns. Taking only one point from a group featuring Young Boys, RB Leipzig and reigning champions Manchester City saw Crvena Zvezda finish bottom of the pile, but having since won another Serbian Superliga title they are now back in the hunt for qualification.
After returning to the club for a second spell in charge, head coach Vladan Milojevic led them to a seventh straight league crown last season, as well as victory over Vojvodina in the cup final. Red Star are leading the table again this term, averaging over three goals per game while posting four wins and one draw - most recently, they thumped Cukaricki 4-1 last Thursday, with Peter Olayinka bagging a first-half brace. Bodo/Glimt are still without several players this week, as Nino Zugelj, Gaute Vetti and Syver Skeide are joined on the sidelines by left-back Brice Wembangomo and Norway defender Omar Elabdellaoui. Sondre Fet, Kasper Hogh, August Mikkelsen and Ulrik Saltnes have all scored twice across Glimt's four qualifying matches so far, with Hogh and former AC Milan winger Jens Petter Hauge set to start up front at Aspmyra Stadion. Meanwhile, captain Patrick Berg has found the net regularly in this year's Eliteserien and will feature in the hosts' midfield.
Red Star's front line will most likely be led by Peter Olayinka and Bruno Duarte, while Gabon international Guelor Kanga - who racked up 17 goal involvements in last term's Serbian Superliga - also poses a threat. New signing Felicio Milson may also be involved at some stage. South Korean duo Seol Young-woo - who recently scored his first goal for the club in just his second league appearance - and Hwang In-beom are set to play a part in Tuesday's game, potentially joining Slovenia's Timi Max Elsnik in the starting XI.
Bodo/Glimt's Home Advantage
The hosts have become well known for their goalscoring ability since their emergence as Norway's best side a few seasons ago. That's been reflected in their home record in Europe too, with 23 of 29 such matches won since their return to UEFA competitions in 2020. 21 of those games have seen them score multiple goals with 3+ goals scored by them in 15. The current Eliteserien leaders have won home legs 4-0 and 4-1 so far in this qualifying competition but now face a step up in class against the Serbian champions, widely known as Red Star Belgrade. However, having beaten the likes of Roma, Celtic and Besiktas on their own patch up in the Arctic Circle in recent years, they won't be fazed.
Red Star's Flying Start to the Season
Red Star have made a flying start to their domestic season, picking up 13 points from the first 15 on offer. Notably, they've scored 18 goals across those matches, although they've conceded in three of them. Both teams to score has also landed in Bodo/Glimt's last seven domestic fixtures - plus three of their four qualifiers so far - so that element looks a strong place to start our Bet Builder. The hosts are just 4/6 for victory and while that looks a little short to me, it does help highlight how they are expected to score goals. With this in mind, I'm going to seek out some value by backing midfielder Patrick Berg to score. He's bagged five in his last seven Eliteserien appearances, having a total of 21 shots across those matches, which shows how he likes to get forward. Admittedly, he's yet to find the target in this competition but the Norway international did net four times in the Conference League last season. Given that record, it's a little surprising to see Berg at 4/1 to score in this game. Added to BTTS, the double pays close to 6/1.
Final Thoughts
With so much at stake, it could be a cagey first leg between two teams accustomed to blowing opponents away in domestic football. Red Star score so frequently, though, they are likely to find the net at some stage, with an away draw making them slight favourites to progress next week. Back both teams to score and Patrick Berg to score @ around 6/1
