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Buccaneers vs. Falcons: Can Baker Mayfield Keep Up His Hot Start on 'Thursday Night Football'?

4 October, 2024 - 1:38AM
Buccaneers vs. Falcons: Can Baker Mayfield Keep Up His Hot Start on 'Thursday Night Football'?
Credit: vox-cdn.com

Week 5 of the NFL season officially kicks off Thursday night when The Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons. Baker Mayfield and Co. have gotten off to a hot start, winning three of their first four games to sit atop the NFC South. Kirk Cousins has Atlanta 2-2 and coming off a big 26-24 win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 4.

Who will come out on top in a battle of division rivals? Stay with NBC News all night for the latest.

The Bucs are back on top only four minutes and 21 seconds after the Falcons tied the game.

Tampa Bay went 82 yards in seven plays, fueled largely by a 56-yard run by Rachaad White on the second play of the drive.

Sterling Shepard scored the go-ahead touchdown from three yards out on 3rd-and-goal.

Redemption for Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo, who ties the game at 17 with a 54-yard field goal.

Koo missed a 41-yarder earlier in the game, but he nailed the longer kick to even things back up.

Mike Evans, already Tampa Bay's all-time leading receiver, caught his 99th touchdown pass (and 100th total touchdown) of his career. The Bucs are now up on the Falcons late in the second quarter.

The Falcons overcame a holding penalty to cap a nine-play, 70-yard drive with a Darnell Mooney 25-yard touchdown catch.

Mooney made an acrobatic grab on 3rd-and-14 for the score, making the setback from the penalty only temporary.

Both teams continue to move the ball well.

Tampa Bay drove 34 yards in six plays, but settled for a field goal after failing to pick up a 3rd-and-3.

The Bucs now have their first lead of the night. It could have been bigger, though, as Baker Mayfield missed a deep shot to Sterling Shepard that could have been a touchdown.

It’s still 7-7 after a missed 41-yard field goal by Younghoe Koo.

Koo actually missed a 46-yarder the play before, but an offsides penalty by the Buccaneers briefly bailed him and Atlanta out. Given another attempt, Koo missed left for the second straight time.

The Falcons were once again moving the ball well, but the Bucs defense sacked Kirk Cousins on 3rd-and-5 to force the (missed) field goal(s).

And the Bucs have answered quickly.

Baker Mayfield led a nine-play, 63-yard drive that resulted in a Tampa Bay touchdown. Mayfield found Mike Evans for a two-yard TD pass to end the possession.

Less than five minutes after the Falcons scored, we have a tie game.

What an opening drive by the Falcons!

Seven plays, 70 yards, and in only three minutes and six seconds Atlanta has a touchdown. Drake London had an 18-yard catch-and-score to cap what was an incredibly efficient possession by the Falcons.

...And their first play is a Bijan Robinson run for about three yards.

While Tampa Bay has held three of its first four opponents to 20 points or fewer, the defense was giving up big yards and struggling to get to the quarterback in Weeks 1-3. However, the defense turned things around in Week 4, giving up a season-low 227 yards and sacking Eagles QB Jalen Hurts six times.

The Bucs defense only allowed 14 points on Sunday (Philadelphia scored on a defensive two-point conversion after Tampa Bay had an extra point blocked in the 3rd quarter).

After three straight seasons finishing 7-10 and missing the playoffs, the Falcons fired head coach Arthur Smith in January and replaced him with former Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris. Morris spent the past three seasons as the Rams defensive coordinator, winning Super Bowl LVI in the 2021 season.

Prior to joining the Rams in 2021, Morris spent six seasons on Atlanta’s staff (2015-2020) and served as the Falcons’ interim head coach in the 2020 season after Dan Quinn was fired (Atlanta went 4-7 in 11 games under Morris in 2020).

After that season, Morris interviewed with Atlanta to become the permanent head coach. However, the Falcons hired Smith and Morris left for Los Angeles.

This is Morris’ second full-time head coaching job in the NFL. More than a decade ago, he was Tampa Bay’s head coach for three seasons (2009-2011). He took charge at the age of 32, going 17-31 in three years in Tampa Bay (.354 win%) and never making the playoffs. The Bucs went 3-13 in his first season in charge, 10-6 in his second season, and 4-12 in his third season.

“It’s such an outcome-driven league. So, to have a win is a big deal, but you never really stop going back and analyzing the performance and looking at how to be better… I didn’t feel like we did our part on offense to give [kicker Younghoe Koo] a better opportunity but he bailed us out… We’ve got to pick it up on offense a little more, red zone, but we had some improvement. We were better on third down. Great to get a win and we’ve got to build on it.”

Asked about facing Tampa Bay, Cousins called it a “great opportunity.”

“We dug ourselves a hole going 1-2. We now give ourselves a chance to go into a long weekend above .500. We know what’s out there for us.”

Evans' 596 career points surpassed kicker Martin Gramatica (592 points) to become Tampa Bay's all-time leading scorer this past weekend.

“I should have kept the ball. Dang! I did not keep the ball. I gave it away… I knew I was approaching [the record]… I’ve been blessed. It’s amazing that I’m here now. I feel like I was just a rookie trying to figure things out, and now I’m the all-time leading scorer in a great franchise’s history. It means the world.”

The Atlanta offense did not score a single touchdown in its 26-24 win against New Orleans.

Tampa Bay running back Bucky Irving, a rookie out of Oregon, had a career-high 10 carries for 49 rushing yards and scored his first career touchdown against the Eagles in Week 4. He's a nice complement to Rachaad White, who had 49 yards rushing and 35 yards receiving in the victory.

Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield completed 30 passes (tied for a career high) for 347 passing yards with three total touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing) and no turnovers against the Eagles.

Entering “Monday Night Football,” Mayfield’s eight passing touchdowns this season are second-most in the NFL, behind Minnesota's Sam Darnold.

Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield signed a three-year, $100 million contract this offseason to remain with the Buccaneers. Kirk Cousins, the longtime QB of the Minnesota Vikings, agreed to a four-year, $180 million to go to Atlanta.

Cousins and Mayfield signed the two largest contracts of any quarterbacks in free agency this offseason. Cousins’ AAV of $45 million ranks tied for 12th among QBs, while Mayfield’s $33.3M AAV ranks 19th among QBs.

A battle atop the NFC South kicks off Week 5’s Thursday night action, with the division-leading Buccaneers heading to Atlanta to take on the Falcons.

The Kirk Cousins Era in Atlanta hasn’t been without its bumps to start the year, but a big last-second divisional win over the Saints this past week has brought life to this team. Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo — the second-highest-graded kicker in the NFL — has become the equalizer for this team, with his outstanding accuracy keeping these games closer than they otherwise might be.

Even still, that hasn’t amounted to a huge asset for bettors. The Falcons possess just a 1-3 record against the spread this season, with all three losses coming in Atlanta — two of which they were modest favorites in.

Despite having talented weapons, particularly running back Bijan Robinson, Atlanta hasn’t been efficient offensively, ranking in the bottom five of the league in a variety of metrics, including late-down conversion rate (31.9%), touchdown drive percentage (13.2%) and offensive points scored (30).

In part, those issues fall to the quarterback position, where Kirk Cousins has generated just a 64.7 PFF passing grade (19th among 33 qualifying passers). He has produced just a pair of big-time throws compared to seven turnover-worthy plays — tied for second most in the NFL. This offense will need him to make strides this week against Tampa, as the Bucs hold the NFL’s second-highest team coverage grade (81.4) through the first month of the season.

Conversely, Tampa Bay has shown the ability to put together solid outings on both sides of the ball, evidenced by the team's bounce-back win this past week, taking down the Eagles by multiple scores as a home underdog.

Just like their quarterback, Baker Mayfield, the Buccaneers relish the underdog status, currently holding a 2-0 record against the spread when gifted points, including an outright win on the road in Detroit in Week 2.

The former No. 1 overall pick was dealing this past week at home against the Eagles on his way to producing his best outing of the season so far. Mayfield generated an 85.1 PFF passing grade, the third-highest mark of Week 4 and second-best in his time with the Buccaneers.

Consistency has been a bit of an issue for Mayfield to start the year, marred by situations where he holds onto the ball for too long. That was far from the case this past week, as he played from the pocket with time and rhythm to get the ball out quickly. Mayfield posted the league’s quickest time-to-throw average (2.17 seconds) last week after ranking among the top 14 longest times through Week 3.

Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Liam Coen is putting Mayfield into measured, high-percentage looks early to soften up coverages, then uncorking shot plays to attack mistakes. That has allowed Mayfield to eclipse this betting line in three of four games this season.

Atlanta likes to lean on its savvy veteran safeties to keep offenses guessing, often starting with open looks pre-snap and rotating to close the middle of the field. Their 40.8% disguised coverage rate ranks third in the NFL. If Coen and Mayfield can anticipate this and keep the ball coming out quickly, it could go a long way in this game.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons: Can Baker Mayfield Keep Up His Hot Start on 'Thursday Night Football'?
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Atlanta Falcons Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL
Samantha Wilson
Samantha Wilson

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