Poll workers are counting ballots in federal byelections in Manitoba and Quebec and it appears the final result will be tight in both seats. The results of these two local contests are being watched closely because there could be national implications depending on who voters send to Parliament Hill. One seat, the Winnipeg-area riding of Elmwood-Transcona, has been held by the NDP for most of the last four decades, while the other, Montreal's LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, has been solidly Liberal. A victory by any other party in either of these elections would be a major upset and could lead to some soul-searching for the Liberal Party and the NDP, which have been closely aligned in Parliament for more than two years.
It's a tight race between the Conservatives and the NDP in Elmwood-Transcona. The Liberal candidate is a distant third and is on pace to perform much worse than the party did last time. Meanwhile, in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, it's a tight three-way race. The Liberal candidate, Laura Palestini, delivered a speech to supporters about an hour after the polls closed and left without speaking to the assembled media.
The ballot in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun includes an eye-popping 91 candidates — the result of a protest campaign calling for electoral reform. That means results may not be known for sometime. The electoral reform group responsible for the large number of candidates in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun also put dozens of names on the ballot in another byelection earlier this summer. The final outcome of that byelection wasn't known until after 4:30 a.m. "It is never possible to predict exactly when all results will be reported, but estimates based on the simulations we've conducted suggest it will take longer to count and report each poll," a spokesperson for Elections Canada said in a media statement. "With this in mind, we cannot provide specific estimates for when results will be completed, but can confirm that results will be available on election night."
Elections Canada will be counting some advance ballots earlier in the day — up to four hours before polls close — and it has hired additional workers to help get the results out as soon as possible, the spokesperson said. Elections Canada has also been running simulations to find ways to count the unwieldy ballots faster.
The NDP is looking to hang onto Elmwood-Transcona to show leader Jagmeet Singh has some momentum after he recently ripped up a governance agreement with the Liberals and vowed to go it alone. If Singh can't hold a seat that's has been in the NDP's column for decades, it may call into question his future as leader, especially given the party's relatively poor performance in the last two general elections. The Liberals already lost Toronto-St. Paul's in June — a stinging defeat for the party in a riding it had held for more than 30 years. A loss in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun — which includes communities that have been represented by Liberals for most of the last century — would also be humiliating for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. While Trudeau has insisted he's staying on as leader despite some bad polling and that byelection loss, a defeat in Montreal after the one in Toronto could lead more Liberal MPs to demand his resignation.
Elmwood-Transcona was last held by MP Daniel Blaikie, who stepped down to work for Manitoba's NDP Premier Wab Kinew earlier this year. His father, Bill Blaikie, previously represented parts of this working-class riding in Parliament. The NDP is trying to prove this riding is not just a "Blaikie seat" but one the New Democrats can hold with another name on the ballot. It's also hoping Kinew's popularity will give the party a boost. The NDP has been running social media ads that largely lean on past provincial issues to attack the Conservative candidate in this race.
The NDP's Leila Dance, a local non-profit and business leader, is up against Conservative Colin Reynolds, a construction electrician. Reynolds, a member of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) labour union, is making a play for blue collar workers in a riding that's home to a lot of them. A major CN rail yard is in the riding and another one owned by CP is just over the Red River in Winnipeg's north end. "Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau's costly coalition does not represent union members like me," Reynolds said in a campaign video announcing his candidacy. "Voters will have a chance to send a message to Jagmeet and Justin. Vote for common sense."
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has been reaching out to private-sector union members as part of a populist rebranding of the party. Poilievre said little last month when a rail work stoppage threatened to cripple the national economy and he agreed to support the Liberal government's anti-scab legislation — a bill opposed by the business community because of fears that a ban on replacement workers will make strikes more likely. Dance, who has the endorsement of the NDP-friendly United Steelworkers union, also has been making a play for labour support — a core constituency for New Democrats nationwide. "Pierre Poilievre likes to cosplay, put on a costume and pretend that he cares about workers," Singh said Thursday at the party's caucus retreat. "This is someone with a track record of hurting workers."
The Liberals are not expected to be a factor in Elmwood-Transcona. The party finished a distant third there in the 2021 general election and polls suggest Liberals are a lot less popular now than they were then.
LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, a riding in southwest Montreal with a sizeable English-speaking minority, was last represented by former justice minister David Lametti. Liberal candidate Laura Palestini, a Montreal city councillor, is trying to hold off NDP and Bloc Québécois challengers who are looking to take another longtime Liberal seat and deliver another body blow to Team Trudeau. A Liberal win, meanwhile, would give Trudeau a much-needed victory and silence critics who say the party has lost touch with voters. Montreal city councillor Craig Sauvé is running for the NDP. Singh has been a frequent presence in the riding recently. Louis-Philippe Sauvé, a former Parliament Hill staffer, is the Bloc's candidate. The Conservative candidate finished in a distant fourth place in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun last time, with just 7.5 per cent of the vote.
Voters in the ridings of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun in Montreal and in Elmwood—Transcona in Winnipeg go to the polls on Monday to send a message that will be examined closely by Canada’s political parties. Polling stations are open from 9:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. Elections Canada predicts the counting of ballots will be completed by midnight in Montreal even though the ballots have 91 names — making them the physically longest in the history of federal elections. Many candidates are running to protest against Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
Polls suggest the Montreal byelection is a three-way race between the federal Liberals, who are fighting to hang onto the riding, the Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party. The LaSalle—Émard—Verdun byelection was called after Liberal MP and cabinet minister David Lametti, who held the riding since 2015, announced earlier this year he was leaving politics. During the last general election in 2021, Lametti was re-elected with 42.9 per cent of the ballots cast, well ahead of his opponents.
In Winnipeg’s Elmwood—Transcona, the Conservative Party of Canada is seeking to wrest the riding from the NDP. During the last federal election, Daniel Blaikie of the NDP was swept into office with 49.7 per cent of vote compared with the second place Conservative candidate, who garnered 28.1 per cent of the ballots. Since then, however, the NDP’s popularity nationally has plummeted. According to polls, it would lose seats if a general election were called this autumn, as well as its position of holding the balance of power if the Conservatives win a majority government.
The NDP has a slight early lead in Winnipeg while remaining in a three-way race with the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois in Montreal as ballots continue to be counted in two crucial federal byelections. Laura Palestini, the Liberal candidate in the party’s Montreal stronghold of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, gave a speech thanking her volunteers just a little over an hour after the polls closed and early results showed her trailing in third spot. The NDP are so far also holding on to their own seat in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood — Transcona. The first 14,000 ballots reported by Elections Canada show 48.2 per cent of votes have gone to the NDP and 43.8 per cent to the Conservatives, with the vast majority of votes yet to be counted.
While byelections aren’t usually credited with much significance on Parliament Hill, the votes in Winnipeg and Montreal are being treated as bellwethers of the political shifts happening in Canada. The Elmwood — Transcona seat has been vacant since the NDP’s Daniel Blaikie left federal politics. The New Democrats are hoping to hold onto the riding and polls suggest the Conservatives are in the running. The Montreal seat of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun opened up when former justice minister David Lametti left politics. Polls suggest the race is tight between the Liberal candidate and the Bloc Québécois, but the NDP is also hopeful it can win.
Montrealer Graham Juneau said that despite all the campaigning, he and many of his friends are “relatively disengaged.” He opted to vote for no one, to make a point about “a lack of confidence in the political establishment in Canada.” “At least amongst my peers, there hasn’t been a groundswell of enthusiasm for any of the particular parties,” he said. Liberal ministers have visited the area several times as the party worked hard to keep the riding it has held for decades. Liberal volunteers trickled into Dilallo Burger, a Ville-Émard institution dating back to 1929, ahead of the polls closing. On the sidewalk outside, Liam Olsen, a volunteer with the Young Liberals of Canada, said he was feeling optimistic.
He’d travelled to Montreal from Ottawa to knock on doors on byelection day. “It’s going to be a close one,” he said. “Unpredictable things can happen. But definitely good vibes at the doors today.” Outside the headquarters of the Bloc Québécois in Verdun, volunteer Sarah Plante, 21, said she was feeling similarly confident. A Liberal victory in Montreal would prove that the Bloc has a place in Montreal and would send a “strong message” to the federal government that the party represents the interests of all Quebecers, she said.
The stakes are particularly high for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who faced calls for his resignation last June when the Conservatives took over a Liberal stronghold seat in a Toronto byelection. The loss sent shock waves through the governing party, as the Liberals were faced with the stark reality of their plummeting poll numbers. C.B. Singh, an 85-year-old Montrealer who has been volunteering for the Liberals since Pierre Elliott Trudeau was prime minister, said he still supports Justin Trudeau. “I know his father, so I’m for him,” he said. “He is still popular among the immigrants.”
Some strategists have suggested that Jagmeet Singh’s leadership could come under similar scrutiny if the NDP fails to hold onto the Winnipeg seat. Singh took a political gamble on signing a pact with Trudeau in 2022 to prevent an early election in exchange for progress on NDP priorities. While that deal has yielded a national dental care program, legislation to ban replacement workers and a bill that would underpin a future pharmacare program, the results haven’t translated to gains in the polls. Singh pulled out of that deal just weeks ago in a bid to distance his party from the Liberals and try to make the next election a two-way race between himself and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. The Conservatives have made an aggressive play for the riding by appealing to traditional NDP voters on issues related to labour and affordability.
“Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau are the same person,” Poilievre said in a social media video posted Sunday ahead of Monday’s vote. A vote for the Conservative candidate in Elmwood — Transcona is a vote to “fire Justin Trudeau and axe the tax,” he said. Elections Canada warned on social media Monday evening that the results in the Montreal riding could take longer than usual to be counted because of the record number of candidates. There are 91 names on the ballot, making it the longest list in the history of federal elections. Most are affiliated with a group protesting Canada’s first-past-the-post voting system. “Results will be available tonight or early tomorrow. Thank you for your patience,” Elections Canada said on X Monday.
