Can No. 13 BYU keep it rolling? Will Isaac Wilson become a catalyst for Utah’s home-stretch turnaround? Does Utah State have a chance to slow down Bronco Mendenhall’s New Mexico offense in Logan? Those burning questions will be answered before Sunday.
BYU's Defense is the Key to a Big 12 Win
Mike Gundy is known for getting his Cowboys going late in the season after poor starts. Is Provo the place to get his first league win? Unlikely, since BYU (6-0, 3-0) has proven tough in night games at home. Gundy will likely be starting a different quarterback this week and his defense, which will be without two starters, has struggled to stop the run. On the other hand, OSU’s Ollie Gordon II is the defending Doak Walker Award winner and, while he’s struggled to match last year’s form, he’s a dangerous back who must draw BYU’s attention. Meanwhile, BYU’s defense is one of 15 teams in the country that has held opponents to under their season averages in yards per play. This game will feature two teams that are almost tied in national rankings in total offense, with OSU ranked 71st and BYU 72nd.
The difference, then, is defense. BYU ranks 24th in total defense with the No 1 pass efficiency defense and OSU is 129th in total defense. OSU is rumored to bench starting QB Alan Bowman for Garret Rangel. Don’t know if changing QBs in Provo against Jay Hill works. We’ll find out, although OSU has had two weeks to zero in on the Cougars. Gundy is good at this.
In a strange football complexity, Kalani Sitake’s Cougars are winning games with the third-worst offense in the Big 12. They do so by making big defensive and special teams plays, gaining turnovers and delivering short fields to the offense. It’s become a trademark of sorts. BYU’s defense has had great moments, but Sitake says they need to shore things up. Defense, however, is the reason the Cougars should win this key league matchup.
BYU's Defense Has Been a Force to Be Reckoned With
BYU's defense has been the backbone of the Cougars' success this season. They've been particularly strong against the pass, ranking first in the nation in pass efficiency defense. This will be a key factor against an Oklahoma State team that may be forced to rely on its passing game more than usual due to injuries on the offensive line.
Can Isaac Wilson Turn Things Around for Utah?
At Utah (4-2, 1-2), Wilson doesn’t need to put the Utes on his shoulders, but it would help if he avoids turnovers and manages the offense acutely and productively in the absence of Cam Rising. QBs, fair or not, are monumental instruments in how teams fare. Is he capable? Yes. He’s talented and good enough. He needs confidence and TCU (3-3, 1-2) just might be the game to help him and his mates get past a two-game skid. Wilson will face the nation’s No. 8 pass defense, and that poses a big challenge. He’ll need to get running back Micah Bernard (6.6 yards per carry) to help create balance.
In watching Cam Rising struggle against ASU, one wonders if a healthy Wilson could have rallied the Utes with some big completions to keep drives alive. Would he have avoided throwing three picks? That’s a guess, but he would have had a more stable foundation to launch passes and get some mustard on the ball.
Utah must be more efficient in the red zone, where everyone believed preseason the Utes would take care of business with talented tight ends and Bernard. But as it stands, Utah is averaging 26.9 points in Big 12 games while TCU averages 35.3. The Horned Frog’s will face the toughest defense so far in Utah, ranked just behind Iowa State and BYU in total defense. One of the biggest reasons Utah is favored is because TCU lost to Houston, one of the lower-tiered teams in the Big 12, 30-19.
Utah's Offense Needs to Find Its Rhythm
Utah's offense has struggled to find consistency this season. They've been particularly ineffective in the red zone, failing to convert touchdowns on several occasions. This will be a major concern against a TCU defense that has been surprisingly strong this season.
Can Utah State Stop New Mexico's Explosive Offense?
In Logan, the Aggies have a formidable task in stopping New Mexico’s offense, which ranks 24th nationally and averages 35 points a game. Defensively, the Lobos can be taken advantage of, but in a shootout, UNM holds an advantage with an explosive and balanced attack and dangerous quarterback. USU is ranked 131st in the country in scoring defense, allowing 42.8 points a game. UNM could drop 50 on the Aggies.
New Mexico's Offense Is a Real Threat
New Mexico's offense has been one of the most explosive in the country this season. They're led by a talented quarterback who can make plays both with his arm and his legs. This will be a major challenge for a Utah State defense that has struggled to stop opponents this season.
The Final Word
This week’s slate of games in the Big 12 promises to be exciting, with BYU looking to extend their undefeated streak, Utah hoping to find their offensive rhythm, and Utah State facing a daunting task against a high-powered New Mexico offense. It’s going to be a wild ride.
