The WNBA playoffs are here, and with that comes Caitlin Clark's first postseason action. The presumed Rookie of the Year faces off against the Connecticut Sun on Sunday in the best-of-three first round, with Game 2 scheduled for Wednesday. Game 3 is Friday, if necessary.
Clark has surpassed all expectations this season, and her sixth-seeded Fever have a legit chance at upsetting the No. 3 Sun. Yahoo Sports' Cassandra Negley examined the matchup and why Indiana is in a solid spot:
Caitlin Clark is playing more like a seasoned vet as her rookie season comes to a close, and Kelsey Mitchell is healthy after playing limited minutes due to an ankle injury in the preseason. They’ve formed the league’s most dangerous backcourt, averaging a combined 49.1 points since the All-Star/Olympic break, which is up from 35 prior.
Aliyah Boston and NaLyssa Smith are more comfortable with Clark, and Lexie Hull’s perimeter shooting gives the team three dangerous threats. After losing three to the Sun within the league’s first month, Indiana blew open the Sun’s league-best defense to win the fourth meeting last month while shooting 43% from 3.
However you break it down, Clark has put on a show all season and that's not likely to slow down in the playoffs.
The Sun's largest lead up to nine, 52-43, and Fever take a timeout at 7:07. Clark still 3-less while Boston and Hull have three fouls each.
Clark misses another 3 from where she drained a couple in a row at halftime. Fever look hesitant on offense.
Clark out here draining a few 3s in the halftime warm-ups. She's 1-9 and missed all six 3 attempts. Four assists, two steals, one block and zero (yes, zero) turnovers. That stat, despite her poor shooting day so far, has the Fever right in this. Kelsey Mitchell leads Fever with 11 points and Damiris Dantas, one of the few Fever players with playoff experience, has 10 off the bench.
Bonner is up to 16 points with three assists and Thomas has 12 points, seven rebounds and four assists.
The last couple of minutes in the second got away from the Fever. They looked disheveled on both ends as the Sun went on a 8-0 run. Connecticut has its largest lead of the game at eight points.
Man, not enough can be said about Lexie Hull's defensive impact. Pure hustle coming in from nowhere to snag lose rebounds and give the Fever second and third chances.
The Fever keep losing Alyssa Thomas, which is not even close to a good idea.
Clark subbing back in after two minutes of game action on the bench. Still a one-possession game.
Sun are doing a good job of limiting the Fever in transition and it helps the Fever are 2-8 from 3. DeWanna Bonner (4-6 overall, 2-2 from 3, 10 points) and Alyssa Thomas (3-6, 6 points) leading the Sun offense.
Sides doing a defensive stance drill down the Fever bench and an assistant comes over to step in front of her. De-escalation committee, coach edition.
Where's the de-escalation committee?!?! Christie Sides is called for a technical. The Fever bench was irate at an out-of-bounds call on Lexie Hull right in front of them.
Clark scores her first points of the game driving past Mabrey under the basket. She stepped in for a steal on the prior possession and is up to three assists with zero turnovers.
Ty Harris is down near the Fever bench after drawing a foul closing out on Lexie Hull. She's being. helped off the court and through the tunnel without putting much weight on her right leg. Marina Mabrey, the Sun's midseason acquisition, will come in. It's a 10-6 Sun lead less than four minutes into the game. Really clunky start to this game.
Clark is fine in a really disjointed game so far.
Clark talked a lot yesterday and today about the Fever's growth in confidence over the course of the season from opening their season here to now the playoffs. That's going to rise massively in-game if Clark drains an early 3. It's always gotten her going. Both attempts have been in-and-out, turning into Sun points.
At 8:30 of the first, Caitlin Clark is still looking for her first bucket. She took a hard shot after passing to her teammate. Looks like an eye-poke. No foul call.
The last time the Fever were in the playoffs, Sun head coach Stephanie White (an Indiana native) was head coach and Sun assistant Briann January was her point guard.
The Sun are year-in, year-out one of the league's best defenses from DiJonai Carrington on the perimeter (she'll likely pick up Clark full-court) into Alyssa Thomas in the paint. One thing Connecticut head coach Stephanie White said yesterday after practice stood out as the key to this series.
"Look, we're a great defensive team, but good offense always beats good defense. We position ourselves with our defense every single game to win ball games. We've got to be good on the offensive end of the floor. We've got to score. This is a team that scores at a high clip. We've got to make sure that we're scoring with them. So we got to make our easy ones."
She wants to see the Sun make their open shots, layups and free throws, specifically, after not doing a good job of it in the loss to Indiana
Hello from Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut. The Fever entered to loud applause from a crowd expected to be heavy Fever fans, as has been the standard for them this season. But the Sun's entrance is still louder. Fans have orange rally towels reading "Any team, any time."
You will be unsurprised to hear there is a lot of Fever red and Hawkeye black at Mohegan Sun today.
— Cassandra Negley (@CasNegley) September 22, 2024 NEW! Find where to watch all of your favorite sports!
Rebecca Lobo looks back at Caitlin Clark's first regular season and previews the Fever's first-round matchup against the Sun. (1:22)
The No. 1 seed New York Liberty host the No. 8 seed Atlanta Dream (1 p.m. ET, ESPN), and the No. 3 seed Connecticut Sun host the No. 6 seed Indiana Fever (3 p.m. ET, ABC). Sunday evening's games feature the No. 2 Minnesota Lynx hosting the No. 7 Phoenix Mercury (5 p.m. ET, ESPN), capped by the No. 4 Las Vegas Aces hosting the No. 5 Seattle Storm (10 p.m. ET, ESPN).
First-round games are a best-of-three format, with the higher seeds hosting the first two games and lower seeds hosting a potential Game 3. The semifinals open a week from Sunday.
Which team will ultimately take home the 2024 WNBA championship? ESPN's panel of women's basketball experts -- Michael Voepel, Kevin Pelton, Alexa Philippou and Katie Barnes -- dissects that question and other storylines heading into this weekend's games, and predicts how the postseason will play out.
Ryan Ruocco joins "NBA Today" and previews the first-round matchup between No. 4 Las Vegas Aces and No. 5 Seattle Storm in the WNBA playoffs.
Barnes: I'm inclined to say yes. Although the Aces got off to a rocky start, going 6-6 in their first 12 games, they had a league-best 9-1 record over the last 10 games of the regular season. Their five-game winning streak is the longest active streak in the WNBA. Las Vegas is also healthy, with Chelsea Gray rejoining the team after missing the first 12 games. She has steadily looked more like herself over the course of the season. There's something to be said for peaking at the right time, and Las Vegas is playing its best basketball of the season right now.
Pelton: To do it, the Aces will have to travel the toughest gauntlet in modern WNBA history. Five teams, including the Aces, went 25-15 or better this season. Las Vegas could face three of them in succession: Seattle, New York and either Connecticut or Minnesota. No team has beaten three opponents with a .625 win percentage or better en route to the title since the 2000 Houston Comets (Sacramento, Los Angeles and New York).
Voepel: As Katie said, what we are seeing from the Aces now makes you think they really are going to three-peat. It's also tough to pick against the team with the best player in the world right now in A'ja Wilson. But because they are the No. 4 seed, the Aces have a very tough road ahead. Can they do it? Yes.
Philippou: The Aces might have been up and down most of the season, but it really did not feel like a three-peat was on the horizon when they suffered a stretch of five losses in seven games, starting with their final game before the Olympic break and continuing through August.
But is anyone going to want to play a Las Vegas team that has won nine of its past 10 contests? One that has Wilson, Gray looking more like herself, plus has stabilized on the defensive end? That managed to erase a 20-point deficit and nearly knock off the Liberty without Wilson? It wouldn't be shocking if those indicators are the beginning of a storybook ending awaiting Wilson and Las Vegas.
Ryan Ruocco joins "NBA Today" to break down the first-round matchup between the New York Liberty and the Atlanta Dream, emphasizing the Liberty's chances at a title run with Sabrina Ionescu.
Philippou: On the whole, the Liberty are better than they were in 2023, when they reached the Finals. And yet, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones haven't been quite as dominant in the second half of 2024. Ionescu, in particular, has seen a drop-off in her efficiency: She averaged 19.8 points per game on 42.5% shooting (35.7% from 3) pre-Olympics versus 15.0 PPG, 33.3% shooting (28.9% from 3) post-Olympics.
If chalk holds, it's tough to see a scenario in which the Liberty get past the two-time defending champion Aces and red-hot Lynx without Ionescu playing like she did in the first half of the season. And as Pelton will elaborate on below, Jones would be a huge X factor in the frontcourt going up against both those squads.
Pelton: The addition of Leonie Fiebich is the biggest reason to believe in this year's Liberty when last year's team fell short. When asked by cohost Megan Rapinoe on last week's "A Touch More" podcast who could be a surprise player in the playoffs, Sue Bird highlighted Fiebich, whose defensive versatility and dangerous shooting (43% on 3s) make her a perfect fit for series against the other contenders.
Voepel: The Liberty have the best record. They also have two former MVPs (Breanna Stewart and Jones) and the experience of making it to the Finals last year. They had the Aces' number this season, going 3-0 against Las Vegas. And though the franchise is 0-5 when playing for the championship, most of that is ancient history (1997-2002) and not applicable to anyone currently with the team. However ...
In all sports, there are franchises that over long periods of time, regardless of personnel changes, never quite get over the hump. Have the Liberty players internalized any of that? They might say they haven't, but "seeking their first championship" is part of the playoff dialogue with New York, as it is with Connecticut. Also, if seeds hold, beating the defending champion Aces isn't going to win New York the title. It would just get the Liberty to the Finals, and if they meet Minnesota there, the Lynx had the regular-season advantage at 3-1, counting the Commissioner's Cup final.
THE WNBA PLAYOFFS ARE SET 🔥 pic.twitter.com/YUpdRujZ9a
Voepel: It's not going to be a surprise at this point if Minnesota wins. It might have seemed that way before this season started. But as soon as we saw the Lynx in action, it was clear their offseason moves had worked and they were playing well together. They went through a brief tough stretch between winning the Commissioner's Cup final and the Olympic break, due mostly to Napheesa Collier dealing with plantar fasciitis. Since play resumed after the Paris Games, Minnesota has been the best overall team.
Barnes: Absolutely! The Lynx have been one of the most consistent teams all season. Despite not being one of the favorites at the beginning of the year, Minnesota has proved that the second seed is no fluke. The Lynx boast the second-best defensive rating in the WNBA and lead the league in assist percentage on made field goals at 76.4%. In an era of superteams that focuses on collections of individual talent and high-profile superstars, the Lynx embody just how far chemistry and buy-in can take a team.
Pelton: Without question. Minnesota will be heavily favored in the first round and would have home-court advantage against Connecticut in Round 2, having just beat the Sun on the road after losing the first two head-to-head matchups. Looking ahead to the Finals, the Lynx took three of four matchups against both New York (including the Commissioner's Cup final) and Las Vegas.
Ryan Ruocco joins "NBA Today" to discuss the matchup between Napheesa Collier's Lynx and the Phoenix Mercury
Philippou: Aside from the Liberty, Lynx and Aces, Connecticut is the only other team I could see potentially making the Finals. The Sun have regularly shown that they're dangerous to count out in the playoffs (see: previous runs to the Finals in 2019 and 2022). This is also a team that has acknowledged its championship window is closing with Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones all free agents after this season, so that's extra motivation.
Pelton: I think we're sleeping on Connecticut a bit. The Sun ended up with the league's second-best point differential after blowing out Chicago in the regular-season finale, and the addition of Marina Mabrey has given them six of the WNBA's top 40 or so players.
Voepel: The Sun in 2024 could be like the Fever in 2012. That year, Indiana had the fourth-best record in the league (the playoffs were still divided between the Western and Eastern Conferences) and had to defeat the two teams with the best records (Minnesota and Connecticut) to win the championship. The 2012 Fever had 33-year-old star Tamika Catchings, who won her first WNBA title. The 2024 Sun have 32-year-old Thomas seeking her first WNBA championship. Everything just came together at the right time for the Fever that postseason, even though they were not the favorites. Another link: Sun head coach Stephanie White was an assistant with the 2012 Fever.
Pelton: Jonquel Jones. Last year, Jones was the Liberty's best player in the playoffs, averaging 17.0 PPG, 11.6 RPG and 2.4 BPG. If New York gets that version of Jones with a more typical playoff performance from Stewart, the Liberty will be nearly impossible to beat. Jones dominated three matchups as New York swept the season series with Las Vegas, averaging 19.7 points, 11.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists.
Voepel: If Las Vegas gets "Playoff Chelsea" out of Gray, it could be a big key in the Aces winning. She was otherworldly for Las Vegas in winning WNBA Finals MVP in 2022. And although she was injured in Game 3 of the Finals last year, her overall performance in the regular season and playoffs was huge again.
This also be a signature postseason for the Liberty's Stewart, much like 2018 and 2020 were for her when she won titles with Seattle.
Philippou: Napheesa Collier. She would likely be the MVP if Wilson wasn't having such an utterly dominant, historic season. It's notable that the Lynx's only back-to-back losses on the year came when she exacerbated her plantar fasciitis and didn't close out the game, and then the two contests where she was sidelined.
Collier can't do it single-handedly; Alanna Smith, Kayla McBride and others have to do their parts. And she has never quite been in this position before: The Lynx haven't won a playoff series since 2017. Collier overall has appeared in nine postseason games, playing in series in 2020 (0-3 versus Seattle) and 2023 (1-2 versus Connecticut).
But if Minnesota wins its fifth championship and first since 2017, Collier will be its superstar, its driving force and the face of a storied run.
Pelton: The league won't maximize the momentum without a guaranteed home game for Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever -- or the Seattle Storm, two of the top four teams in average attendance. Because those teams didn't finish in the top four of the standings, they'll play at home only if they can win one of their first two games on the road. At a minimum, now that charter travel has been fully phased in, the WNBA should go back to the 1-1-1 format for the first round and guarantee all eight playoff teams a home game. Better yet, let's make the first round a best-of-five series.
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Voepel: The previous best-of-three format started with the first game at the lower seed, then two games (if necessary) at the higher seed. The issue with that was it potentially put the higher seed in a more difficult position -- on the road -- for the first game.
The problems with the current format: There's no guarantee of at least one home game for the lower seeds, and it puts the higher seed in the position of potentially having to win the series on the road. Kevin provides solutions, but both cost more money. Still, it's time to implement one or the other.
As for what could happen to maximize the popularity boost the league got this season, everyone loves a final series that goes the distance. In the past decade, the WNBA Finals had that in 2015 (Lynx over Fever 3-2), 2016 (Sparks over Lynx 3-2) and 2017 (Lynx over Sparks 3-2). The only one since was in 2019 (Mystics over Sun 3-2). Another epic Finals would be a fitting end to the 2024 season.
Click here for ESPN's series-by-series first-round preview.
Who wins each best-of-three first-round series?
(1) New York Aces vs. (8) Atlanta Dream
Katie Barnes: Liberty in 2 Sean Hurd: Liberty in 2 Myron Medcalf: Liberty in 2 Eric Moody: Liberty in 2 Neil Paine: Liberty in 2 Kevin Pelton: Liberty in 2 Alexa Philippou: Liberty in 2 Michael Voepel: Liberty in 2 Josh Weinfuss: Liberty in 2
(2) Minnesota Lynx vs. (7) Phoenix Mercury
Barnes: Lynx in 2 Hurd: Lynx in 3 Medcalf: Lynx in 2 Moody: Lynx in 2 Paine: Lynx in 2 Pelton: Lynx in 2 Philippou: Lynx in 2 Voepel: Lynx in 2 Weinfuss: Lynx in 3
(3) Connecticut Sun vs. (6) Indiana Fever
Barnes: Fever in 3 Hurd: Sun in 3 Medcalf: Fever in 3 Moody: Sun in 3 Paine: Sun in 3 Pelton: Sun in 3 Philippou: Sun in 2 Voepel: Sun in 3 Weinfuss: Fever in 3
(4) Las Vegas Aces vs. (5) Seattle Storm
Barnes: Aces in 2 Hurd: Aces in 2 Medcalf: Aces in 3 Moody: Aces in 3 Paine: Aces in 3 Pelton: Aces in 2 Philippou: Aces in 2 Voepel: Aces in 2 Weinfuss: Aces in 2
Which teams will meet in the WNBA Finals?
Barnes: Lynx vs. Aces Hurd: Lynx vs. Aces Medcalf: Lynx vs. Aces Moody: Lynx vs. Liberty Paine: Lynx vs. Liberty Pelton: Lynx vs. Liberty Philippou: Lynx vs. Liberty Voepel: Lynx vs. Aces Weinfuss: Fever vs. Liberty
Which team will win the championship?
Barnes: Aces Hurd: Aces Medcalf: Aces Moody: Liberty Paine: Liberty Pelton: Liberty Philippou: Liberty Voepel: Aces Weinfuss: Fever
Which player will be the Finals MVP?
Barnes: A'ja Wilson, Aces Hurd: A'ja Wilson, Aces Medcalf: A'ja Wilson, Aces Moody: Breanna Stewart, Liberty Paine: Breanna Stewart, Liberty Pelton: Breanna Stewart, Liberty Philippou: Breanna Stewart, Liberty Voepel: A'ja Wilson, Aces Weinfuss: Caitlin Clark, Fever
