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Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga: The Numbers Behind the Biggest Fight of Berlanga's Career

15 September, 2024 - 1:20AM
Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga: The Numbers Behind the Biggest Fight of Berlanga's Career
Credit: brobible.com

Canelo Alvarez will headline a boxing card in Las Vegas for the 18th time when he puts his WBC, WBO and WBA super middleweight world titles on the line against Edgar Berlanga on Saturday night. The fight card at T-Mobile Arena also includes Erislandy Lara defending his WBA middleweight title against Danny Garcia and a super middleweight bout between Caleb Plant and Trevor McCumby for the vacant WBA interim title.

Alvarez (61-2-2, 39 KOs) has held titles in four divisions, including the lineal championship at middleweight and super middleweight. Alvarez became the undisputed super middleweight champion by defeating Plant by 11th-round TKO in November 2021. He made four successful defenses before the IBF stripped him of the belt in July when Alvarez decided to face Berlanga instead of the IBF's mandatory challenger, William Scull.

"I just want to show everyone that I'm still the best," Alvarez said during Wednesday's news conference in Las Vegas. "I still love this sport. When I stop loving it, you'll know. I love my routine and I love going to the gym every day."

Berlanga (22-0, 17 KOs) has never fought for a world title. After starting his career 16-0, with all of his victories coming in the first round, Berlanga has scored just one stoppage in his past six victories.

Berlanga, a heavy underdog (+900 per ESPN BET), knows he has to do something special to beat Alvarez, one of the best fighters in the world.

"This is the opportunity of a lifetime," Berlanga said. "It's gonna be a firefight this weekend. ... I'm gonna make everyone a believer. We have Puerto Rico vs. Mexico and we're going at it on Saturday night."

The Numbers Behind the Fight

Let's take a look at the title fight by the numbers, with data from ESPN Stats & Information and CompuBox.

-2000: Odds for Alvarez to win the fight, per ESPN BET.

1,582: Total seconds fought by Berlanga in his first 16 fights as a pro, which all ended in the first round, for an average of 98.9 seconds per fight. The combined record of all 16 opponents at the time of their fights was 175 wins, 67 loses and 15 draws.

4: Successful title defenses by Alvarez as undisputed super middleweight champion. He's the only male boxer with four defenses of an undisputed title in the four-belt era (since 2007).

21: Victories by Alvarez in world title fights; at 21-2-1, he's the fourth Mexican-born fighter with 20 or more wins in world title fights. With a win on Saturday, he would break a tie with Marco Antonio Barrera for the third most wins in world title fights by a Mexican fighter (Julio Cesar Chavez, 31; Ricardo "Finito" Lopez, 25).

11: Undisputed men's champions in the modern four-belt era. In addition to Alvarez, they are: Bernard Hopkins, Jermain Taylor, Terence Crawford, Oleksandr Usyk, Teofimo Lopez, Josh Taylor, George Kambosos Jr., Devin Haney, Jermell Charlo and Naoya Inoue.

14.7: Punches landed by Alvarez per round out of 41 thrown (35.9%, No. 5 in accuracy among champions and title contenders).

4.2: Jabs landed per round by Alvarez out of 18.3 (23%).

10.5: Power punches landed per round by Alvarez out of 22.7 (46.3%), No. 6 among champions and title contenders.

6.6: Power punches per round landed on Alvarez by his opponents (30.1%).

12.4: Punches landed by Berlanga per round out of 37.6 thrown (33%).

7.6: Power punches landed by Berlanga per round out of 17.8 (42.7%).

5.8: Power punches landed on Berlanga per round by opponents (29.9%).

This will be Alvarez's 11th fight around Mexican Independence Day weekend, with his only loss coming in 2013 against Floyd Mayweather.

Even though Berlanga was born in Brooklyn, New York, his Puerto Rican descent means this fight joins other notable Mexico-Puerto Rico title bouts.

In comparison to Alvarez's championship experience, Berlanga will be fighting for a world title for the first time in his career. It will be a big step up in competition for Berlanga, who comes into the fight as the No. 5-ranked super middleweight, according to ESPN.

This will be the third time that Alvarez faces off against a first-time world title challenger. Berlanga seeks to become the first fighter to defeat Alvarez in such a fight.

Canelo will be making his eighth defense of at least one super middleweight title. He's currently a -2000 favorite to win (per ESPN BET), which would tie for his second shortest odds to win a super middleweight title fight.

Berlanga on what the fight against Alvarez means to him: "It means everything to be in this position. I'm not supposed to be here. I've been doubted since before I turned pro. But I knew that I was bound to end up in this position.

"I could be the face of Puerto Rican boxing after Saturday night. I've wanted that for many years and now it's my turn to do it."

Berlanga on his approach ahead of the fight: "I'm a knockout artist. Every fighter wants the knockout. We know that he's a legend and we can't just go swing for the fences. We have to do it the right way. Sixth-round knockout, that's what we're going for. But we're ready for all 12 rounds if we have to."

Alvarez on his intention to look for the KO: "It's easy to say you'll knock me out, but it's much more difficult to do it. Saturday night is gonna be very difficult for him, for sure. I've prepared for the knockout. I love the feeling of a knockout and I'm gonna do my best to get it done.

"I always put 100 percent into my fights and into training, no matter who I'm fighting. It's the same mentality every fight. This is no exception. I've had a great training camp and I'm ready."

Alvarez on fighting on Mexican Independence Day weekend: "It's an honor to fight on this date. Mexican Independence Day is very important for us. It's very special and I'm very proud to fight for the Mexican people.

"The fans mean everything to me and I appreciate them. They support me no matter what and I'm thankful for everyone who's supported me throughout my career."

Canelo Álvarez is spending his Saturday doing what he usually does around the time of Mexican Independence Day: headlining a big-time pay-per-view card. His opponent this time: undefeated challenger Edgar Berlanga.

It's been three years since Álvarez (61-2-2, 39 KOs) united the super middleweight titles and he has since defended the group four times with unanimous-decision wins against Gennadiy Golovkin, John Ryder, Jermell Charlo and Jaime Munguía. He is heavily favored to take care of business against Berlanga, to the point that the biggest question is what he'll do next.

Berlanga (22-0, 17 KOs) isn't a nothing opponent, though, and all it could take is one big punch from the 27-year-old to shock the boxing world.

Undercard Highlights

In addition to the big main event, PBC has loaded this card with former champions looking to knock off some ring rust after decent layoffs. WBA middleweight champion Erislandy Lara looks to defend his crown against former junior welterweight and welterweight king Danny Garcia in the co-main event. Garcia, 36, has just one fight in the last four years and gets this opportunity without ever fighting at 160 pounds. Elsewhere, former super middleweight champion Caleb Plant looks to get back in the win column when he takes on Trevor McCumby. Plant has also been somewhat inactive with just two fights in three years, including a decision loss at the hands of Benavidez. The card also features the return of former champions Rolando "Rolly" Romero and Stephen Fulton.

"Trevor himself knows that I'm not a bum, and that's why he wants to fight me. He wants to be on the big stage, and that means facing a real fighter. Right now, he's looking at a real fighter. He's fought only bums, but he's not fighting a bum now," Plant said at the final press conference. "We'll see what he brings on Saturday. He's undefeated and he's looking to stay that way. So he'll come motivated."

"We're ready to fight. It's very motivating to be on a card with all of these great fighters and I'm grateful to be up here with them for this great event," McCumby said. "There's no bad blood on my side, I'm just ready to fight. Things are gonna be said at these press conferences and I think Caleb needs to make his opponent the villain when he gets in there. I don't really let things get in my head like that. I go in there to handle business."

Let's take a closer look at the complete fight card with the latest odds before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event.

The Verdict

Make no mistake, Berlanga possesses both the size and power to be a problem for Alvarez, particularly should the decorated champion take him lightly or get lured into a bit of a scrap early on. But, really, those scenarios would represent the extreme, best-case scenario for Berlanga and would require of him a certain level of smarts and craft that he has yet to put together in a single fight.

Until Alvarez shows up old in a big fight, it's hard to imagine that happening. Alvarez is not only so incredibly responsible defensively, and in terms of his head movement, he also owns one of the best chins in the history of the sport and has never been knocked down, even against power punchers like Golovkin, Danny Jacobs and the much larger Bivol.

If the same Alvarez from the Munguia fight just four months ago enters the ring on Saturday, the reality of what he can do as an efficient sharpshooter and counter puncher has all the makings to be way too much for Berlanga to handle.

For everything good you can say about Berlanga as an athlete or as a puncher, he's visibly lacking the kind of poise and adaptability necessary to succeed at this level. And should he fall behind and feel the need to aggressively rally against Alvarez, all it would probably do is speed up his exit from the fight.

Alvarez admitted this week that he carried Munguia for most of their May fight and purposely chose not to finish his Mexican countryman. But given the trash talk between he and Berlanga, that's a scenario that isn't as likely to take place.

Pick: Alvarez via TKO8

Who wins Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who was up more than $4,000 for $100 bettors over the past 65 picks, and find out.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga: The Numbers Behind the Biggest Fight of Berlanga's Career
Credit: enelring.com.mx
Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga: The Numbers Behind the Biggest Fight of Berlanga's Career
Credit: vox-cdn.com
Tags:
Canelo Álvarez boxing Canelo Álvarez Edgar Berlanga boxing super middleweight title fight
Nneka Okoro
Nneka Okoro

Sports Reporter

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