The St. Louis Cardinals aren’t winning baseball’s arms race, but at least they are catching up on the pitching development side. This hasn’t been a franchise strength, so the Cardinals made a concerted effort to build up their supply of pitching prospects through the draft, international signings and last year’s bailout trades. As this season winds down, we can finally see progress.
Analysts Jim Callis, Sam Dykstra and Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com rank the Cardinals pitching prospects as third-best in the sport, behind only the perpetually rebuilding Pittsburgh Pirates and the tanking Chicago White Sox. This is good news as this franchise heads toward an organizational reset. Chaim Bloom built his reputation on the player evaluation and development side. His rise in influence in the Cardinals front office coincides with the need to gain more payroll efficiency.
The organization sees left-handers Quinn Mathews and Cooper Hjerpe and right-handers Michael McGreevy, Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby and Sem Robberse having an impact during the next few years. We’re guessing the Cardinals won’t invest a fortune in new pitchers for next season, so they need to get more from what they already have on hand and in the pipeline.
Sonny Gray has $60 million coming to him during the next two seasons. The Cardinals can pencil Erick Fedde and Andre Pallante into the 2025 rotation behind him. They could pick up the $12 million option on Kyle Gibson and/or the $12 million option on Lance Lynn. Then there is the roughly $30 million committed to Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz for one more year. Add it all up and there’s not much flexibility for a front office that is sending strong fiscal responsibility vibes.
The Cardinals made progress with younger pitchers at the major league level this season. Pallante seized the No. 6 starter role with an impressive transformation. Matthew Liberatore failed to secure that job, but he performed well in the bullpen. Kyle Leahy, independent ball graduate Chris Roycroft and Rule 5 draft steal Ryan Fernandez added bullpen depth. McGreevy excelled in his one Cardinals start, and Gordon Graceffo made his first two big league appearances. The Cardinals will need a whole lot more homegrown pitching moving forward given the advanced age of the current starting rotation. Can they convert potential into production?
Cardinals Pitching Prospects - The Top Names
Mathews is a well-polished collegiate product who regained velocity after suffering overuse at Stanford. He tops the prospect list after dominating at the Class A, advanced Class A and Double-A levels this season. The adults at the Triple-A level don’t chase as many pitches as the kids at lower levels do, so he still has work to do.
McGreevy established durability in his first three full pro seasons after his time at UC Santa Barbara. This year was an ability to miss bats, especially against left-handed hitters, after turning his slider into more of a sweeper. At Triple-A Memphis, McGreevy has posted earned run averages of 2.12, 3.38, 2.83 and 3.00 during the past four months. He looks ready to add depth as a No. 7 starter or long man next season.
Cardinals Pitching Prospects - The Next Wave
Beyond these two, the near-term depth is less certain. Hence hoped to build physical endurance at Double-A Springfield (Missouri) while moving closer to the majors. That goal remains unmet. At last count, he pitched just 79⅔ innings this season after injury issues caused him to miss time in the middle of the season. He returned with some impressive late-season outings ... only to cut his last start short. Hence, 22, has big league stuff with an excellent change-up, a lively fastball and improved command on his slider. But can he stay on the mound long enough to progress?
The Cardinals wonder the same about Roby, who returned to the mound after spending most of the season on Springfield’s injured list. He has worked just 38⅓ innings in what became a lost developmental year. After missing two months with an injury, Robberse made three well-spaced rehab appearances at Palm Beach and two four-inning outings at Memphis. He is finishing his season on a positive note.
Hjerpe created some scouting buzz before shutting down July 2. His funky delivery produced 76 strikeouts in 52⅓ innings at Peoria and Springfield. He can miss bats, but he will need better command and better health to advance. Lefty Zack Thompson struck out 104 batters in 84 innings at Memphis, but he also walked 54 and allowed 10 homers. After getting his first looks from the Cardinals, Graceffo has struggled at Memphis due to lost fastball velocity.
Cardinals Pitching Prospects - The Future
On the other hand, the franchise has interesting prospects at Class A Palm Beach. Working in pitcher-friendly conditions, international additions Chen-Wei Lin (Taiwan) and Luis Gastelum (Mexico) have been among those making big impressions. Gastelum struck out 70 batters in 48 relief innings with a deadly change-up, while the 6-foot-7 Lin has a fastball/change-up combination with some projection left on his frame.
So the Cardinals have some guys. They must develop them and keep adding more to turn an organizational weakness into a strength. This could be a huge step for the Cardinals' future, and a sign of things to come.
