Chargers vs. Ravens: A Monday Night Football Showdown

The primetime lights of Monday Night Football will shine on the third installment of the Harbaugh Bowl, as Jim's Chargers host John's Ravens. Historically, this matchup has favored big brother John, who holds a 2-0 record both straight up and against the spread. However, those games took place over a decade ago, and this time, the stakes are just as high but take on a different shape. Both teams are battling for AFC playoff positioning, with each currently clinging to a wild-card berth.

Betting Odds and Team Performances

Jim Harbaugh has positioned his Chargers for success both on the field and in betting markets. Los Angeles boasts a top-five cover rate (70%) in the NFL, with a 5-1 record against the spread (ATS) since the start of October and an undefeated 4-0-1 ATS record at home this season. On the other hand, the Ravens have faltered recently, delivering less favorable betting results. Baltimore has gone 1-3 ATS since Week 8, including losses in their last two road games, which they entered as favorites. Despite this, Baltimore still fields the league’s highest-graded offense (88.1) and leads in EPA per play this season, though their recent performance was underwhelming.

Offensive Firepower and Defensive Struggles

To avoid another lackluster showing against a Chargers defense that ranks third in the league in EPA allowed per play, Baltimore will need strong performances from Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, who are coming off their lowest-graded games of the season. That could prove challenging, given the Chargers' offensive firepower in recent weeks. Since the start of November, Los Angeles has earned the NFL’s third-highest offensive grade (80.3), driven by Justin Herbert's exceptional play. The Chargers' signal-caller has been on fire over his past five games, earning the NFL’s highest passing grade (93.4) since Week 7. During that span, Herbert has recorded a league-leading 17 big-time throws while committing just two turnover-worthy plays. Although he had a potential interception dropped in Week 11, he has otherwise avoided turnover-worthy plays since Week 6 and hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 2.

Baltimore’s coverage unit has struggled this season, ranking in the bottom third of the league in EPA allowed per pass play and posting a team coverage grade of just 59.0. Interceptions have been hard to come by, with the team recording only seven picks across 491 coverage snaps — below the league average. To compound matters, Baltimore leads the NFL with eight dropped interceptions.

A Look at the First Half

It wasn't the prettiest 30 minutes of football, but the Harbaugh brothers reunited, and two stud quarterbacks entertained fans during an exciting first half of action at SoFi Stadium. Los Angeles had 202 total yards of offense in the first half and held Baltimore to less than 180 yards, as the Chargers went into the locker room with a 14-13 lead. Greg Roman, J.K. Dobbins, and Gus Edwards were among the former Ravens who impacted the first half in a game filled with familiarity and close-knit ties. With Baltimore returning to the field, we're reviewing takeaways and observations from the first half of football. The Ravens punted but took over three minutes off the clock on their last drive. The Chargers have the ball, but need two touchdowns to tie the game with only 3:08 remaining in regulation. The Chargers punted after only one first down. After Justin Herbert was sacked on second down, he threw incomplete on 3rd-and-18. Los Angeles opted not to go for it on 4th-and-18, but trailing by two scores with less than seven minutes to go, that’s putting quite a bit of pressure on the defense. Wow! Only six plays from scrimmage after the Chargers’ three-and-out, the Ravens are leading by two touchdowns thanks to a 51-yard run by Justice Hill. Baltimore has run for 194 yards on 29 carries so far tonight. The Ravens lead 30-16. That’s a brutal three-and-out for the Chargers. They punted after Quentin Johnston dropped a perfect pass from Justin Herbert on third down. Johnston was running into wide-open field on a drag route but couldn’t make the play. The Ravens will take back possession leading 23-16. The Chargers will have to come back without running back J.K. Dobbins, who has been downgraded to out. Dobbins left in the first half with a left knee injury and hasn’t been seen on the field since. He was initially ruled questionable but is now unable to give it a go. The Ravens go 70 yards in 14 plays to add to their lead. The long drive featured two fourth-down conversions, and ended with an impressive catch by Mark Andrews in the back of the end zone. Baltimore couldn’t convert a two-point attempt to go up two scores. The Ravens now lead 23-16. Good game so far! Each team added a field goal in the third quarter to keep the score within one headed to the fourth. The Ravens will have a 4th-and-1 from the Chargers’ 25-yard line when play resumes. It’s a one-point game again after another 52-yard field goal by Cameron Dicker. The Chargers moved the ball well on that drive, but stalled out after 10 plays and 36 yards. The Ravens lead 17-16. A 10-play, 43-yard drive by the Ravens ends with a 45-yard field goal from Justin Tucker. Baltimore now leads 17-13. Very nice work by Justin Herbert and the Chargers, who picked up 36 yards in only 22 seconds to set up a field goal right before halftime. Cameron Dicker drilled the 52-yard attempt to make it a one-point game. Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins is questionable to return with a knee injury. He went to the locker room in the second quarter after running six times for 40 yards. What a drive! The Ravens take a 14-10 lead late in the first half after a 40-yard bomb from Lamar Jackson to Reshod Bateman. Baltimore went 93 yards in eight plays — including converting a 4th-and-1 from their own 16-yard line. The gamble paid off. The Chargers decided not to attempt a 4th-and-3 from near midfield, and instead punted the ball back to the Ravens. Baltimore will take over inside its own 10 trailing 10-7. The Ravens finally got a drive going, rushing for 59 yards on a seven-play, 70-yard drive that culminated in a 10-yard touchdown run by Lamar Jackson. Baltimore hasn’t had much success through the air yet, but its ground attack has made it a 10-7 game. After a 10-play, 40-yard drive, the Chargers settled for a 42-yard field goal to take a 10-0 lead. Los Angeles converted a 4th-and-1 on the possession, but opted not to go for it on 4th-and-7 from the 24. No scores after the Chargers raced out to a one-touchdown lead on their first possession. Los Angeles will have a first down on the Baltimore 39 when the second quarter begins, though. The Ravens look lost on offense so far. After a Derrick Henry run for five yards, Lamar Jackson threw two straight incomplete passes that weren’t particularly close. The Chargers will go back on offense leading 7-0. The Chargers converted a 3rd-and-13 from their own 10, but couldn’t convert a 3rd-and-4 a few plays later. Nate Wiggins delivered a nice hit on Jalen Reagor to break up a potential first down. The Ravens take over in their own territory after the punt. The Ravens picked up one first down on their opening drive, but it stalled after a 15-yard leg whip penalty by Patrick Ricard set them back. The Chargers will take over on their own 13 after the punt. That felt quick! The Chargers marched down the field on their opening possession, going 70 yards in only nine plays for a touchdown. The methodical drive ended with a five-yard run by Justin Herbert for a score. Los Angeles — and the younger Harbaugh — now leads 7-0. The Harbaugh Bowl is underway! The Chargers start with the ball and the first play from scrimmage is a J.K. Dobbins run that gets stuffed in the backfield.

Team Histories and Key Players

These teams know one another well beyond the Harbaugh brothers. Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz, who learned the front-office game while with the Ravens, is one of 16 former Ravens who are now Chargers. That includes Jim Harbaugh himself (a former Ravens QB for 14 games in 1998), the Chargers’ offensive and defensive coordinators and running back J.K. Dobbins, who sealed the Chargers’ Week 11 victory on 'Sunday Night Football' with his game-winning touchdown run. For as quickly as Baltimore’s offense can score, its defense can give up damaging plays, too. The Ravens are allowing 15.2 points per second half this season, and only the Raiders allow more. Baltimore ranks among the league’s 10 worst defenses in most passing-related categories, from yards allowed per attempt (7.2), per completion (11.0) and dead last in first downs allowed by passes (14.8). In broad strokes, this has been the year of the running back in the NFL. The Ravens and the Chargers are two teams that have used the run to change their offenses. Baltimore’s 177.3 rushing yards per game rank second-most in the NFL behind Philadelphia, a Ravens average that increases when on the road to 187.7. Last season, prior to Derrick Henry’s arrival, Baltimore averaged about 21 fewer yards per game despite averaging slightly more rushing attempts. There was no surprise that Jim Harbaugh would instill a running priority in his first season in Los Angeles. After averaging 96.6 yards on the ground last season, Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have seen their offense average 121.6 this season. How the Ravens sit in the standings; Baltimore (7-4) enters tonight second in the AFC North, one game behind 8-3 Pittsburgh, which won their head-to-head matchup. Until those teams meet again in Week 16, the Ravens have to keep pace in the standings. How the Chargers sit in the standings; Staying in the AFC, but in the west, the Chargers are a distant second in their division at 7-3. The NFL rates the Chargers probability of making the playoffs at 90%, and 97% with a win tonight. The Ravens lost 18-16 at the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11… despite not allowing a touchdown (allowed 6 field goals). Baltimore scored a touchdown with 1:06 left in regulation but failed on the two-point conversion attempt to tie game. It was their fourth loss this season, the same total they had all of last year. The Chargers are coming off a thriller in Week 12 when they beat the Bengals 34-27. L.A. led 27-6 in the third quarter before nearly blowing the game (it was tied 27-27 in fourth quarter). RB J.K. Dobbins scored the game-winning 29-yd touchdown with 0:18 left in regulation. The Chargers have won four straight games and five of the last six since starting 2-2 and returning from a Week 5 bye. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Ravens’ All-Pro linebacker, questionable for tonight’s game due to a hamstring injury, is unlikely to play. He did not practice this week and did not take part in the team's Saturday walk-through. This is the third time that brothers John and Jim Harbaugh will coach against each other, and the first since meeting in Super Bowl XLVII in the 2012 season. John and the Ravens are 2-0 against his little brother Jim (both losses were while Jim was head coach of the 49ers).

Game Day Breakdown and Predictions

In the final game of Week 12, the Los Angeles Chargers play host to the Baltimore Ravens on "Monday Night Football." Each of these two teams is coming off a wild game against an AFC North opponent, with the Chargers blowing a big lead and then managing to win anyway against the Bengals, and the Ravens seeing their comeback attempt against the Steelers fall short after missing on a two-point conversion. They each currently occupy an AFC wild card spot, with the Chargers a half-game ahead at 7-3 while the Ravens are 7-4. The AFC race is incredibly close among the seven teams currently in playoff position, so this game carries some massive seeding implications. Which of these AFC playoff contenders will secure a much-needed victory? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game. It was a struggle for Baltimore against the Steelers last week, starting with Derrick Henry's fumble on the opening drive of the game. They ended the game with three turnovers, and having scored on just two of their 12 drives before getting a late touchdown in the hurry-up offense. This from a team that had produced a touchdown or field goal on more than half of its drives through the first 10 weeks of the year. For much of this season, the Chargers have been the same type of defensive unit. They have allowed the league's lowest touchdown-or-field-goal rate on opponent drives, yielding a score only 25% of the time. But when you take a look at L.A.'s schedule, you can see some holes in that number. The Chargers played the Raiders, Panthers, Steelers (with Justin Fields), Chiefs, Broncos (before Bo Nix started playing well), Cardinals, Saints, Browns and Titans before lost week's game against the Bengals. Prior to Cincinnati putting up 27 last weekend, nobody had scored more than 20 -- and only the Steelers had even reached that number. Through the first half against the Bengals last week, it was more of the same. But after halftime ... the Bengals gained 274 yards on 32 plays, hanging 20 points on the board and creating several explosive plays. They did it mostly by spreading the field and letting Joe Burrow go to work. Burrow went 17 of 27 for 261 yards and three scores after the break, ripping off eight completions of 10-plus yards and three of 20 or more. And this was despite being pressured on 50% of his dropbacks, per Tru Media. We've seen the Ravens do similar things in the passing game for most of this season. Lamar Jackson still leads the NFL in both yards per attempt, touchdown rate and passer rating, with a career-high passing success rate and a completion percentage just 0.2% off his career-best mark set last year. Of course, Jackson has again been arguably the NFL's most effective scrambler, running away from pressure 24.4% of the time and gaining 7.6 yards per scramble. The Chargers have been one of the league's worst defenses against scrambling quarterbacks, allowing 9.9 yards per scramble, which ranks 30th in the league. The Chargers also play an absolute ton of zone coverage, which Jackson has torn apart throughout this season. The distance between his 0.38 EPA per dropback against zone and Jayden Daniels and Baker Mayfield in second place (0.22) is equal to the distance between those two and Jalen Hurts in 16th (0.06). In the run game, L.A. has allowed the league's fewest rushing touchdowns (three), but the Chargers are just 24th in yards allowed per carry. They have one of the league's worst missed-tackle rates on running plays, which is less than ideal against a team with Jackson and Derrick Henry. The Chargers have stopped only 16.2% of opponent runs at or behind the line of scrimmage, via Tru Media, and have allowed a gain of five-plus yards 37.9% of the time. That's a recipe for a very good rushing performance from the Ravens, and we should expect them to press that advantage. We know what we're getting on this side of the ball. Absolutely nobody can run on the Ravens, and absolutely anybody can throw on them. The Ravens rank second in EPA per play against the run and 31st against the pass, according to Tru Media. They have allowed just 3.4 yards per carry, the best mark in the NFL. And they've allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 27th. Opponents have gained 12 or more yards on just 4% of their rushing attempts, which is not only the best mark in the league but is also less than half of the 8.5% NFL average. Meanwhile, 10.2% of opponent passing attempts have turned into 20-plus-yard gains, which ranks as the fourth-worst mark in football. So, we should not expect this to be a big game for J.K. Dobbins or Gus Edwards, or whomever else the Chargers decide to put in the backfield. Instead, things will rest almost entirely on the right shoulder of Justin Herbert, and on his pass-catching corps of Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer and Will Dissly. Herbert looked fantastic early in the game against the Bengals last week, then went through a protracted lull for much of the middle of the game, only to make up for it with consecutive lasers on the team's late, game-winning drive. He ended the evening 17 of 36, but for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also had another one of his best rushing games of the season, totaling 65 yards on his five carries. He has been a low-volume passer throughout this season, averaging just 27.7 pass attempts per game after averaging 39.1 through his first four NFL seasons. He has just 13 touchdown passes in 10 games, but he's averaging a career-best 7.9 yards per attempt, with a career-best 102.1 passer rating and a league-best 0.4% interception rate. Baltimore's defensive backfield seemingly has the talent to handle this passing attack, with Marlon Humphrey, Brandon Stephens, Ar'Darius Washington, Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams. But that's been true all season and it has simply not happened for the Ravens to date. Add in Roquan Smith's uncharacteristic (relative) struggles in coverage and Trenton Simpson's weaknesses in that area, and there should be plenty of openings for Herbert to find downfield. Prediction: Ravens 27, Chargers 24 Both of these teams should be able to find success offensively. Before struggling against Pittsburgh last week, the last time the Ravens faced a pass defense that had been smothering everybody in the NFL, they came out and tore up the Denver Broncos and hung 41 points on the board. We saw last week against Cincinnati that the Chargers defense does have some leaks, and we expect Lamar Jackson to find them.