The Chicago Bulls are an unpredictable franchise these days. No one saw the Josh Giddey-Alex Caruso trade coming, but it happened. Everyone’s expected the Bulls to have traded Zach LaVine by now, but it hasn’t happened. Are the Bulls rebuilding, or are they content with being a fringe play-in team going nowhere fast? Bulls fans have more questions than answers when it comes to the direction of the franchise.

Another question surrounding Chicago is what the franchise is going to do with Giddey moving forward. The 22-year-old point guard was billed as the Bulls’ point guard of the future when the front office gave up Caruso to acquire him, but Chicago and Giddey didn’t agree on an extension to his current deal.

As such, Giddey will become a free agent this summer, and he’s reportedly expecting a deal in the realm of $30 million per year. The Bulls will likely sign Giddey to a new deal, but if Chicago changes its tune on Giddey, he could easily end up somewhere else.

On Tuesday, Bleacher Report’s Eric Pincus listed the Brooklyn Nets as one of two potential suitors for Giddey on next summer’s market. “The Nets need a starting point guard, so they could make a run at Josh Giddey, driving up the price for the Bulls to keep him,” Pincus said. “If not, Chicago has the leverage and historically, the Bulls are more likely to use leverage to get a discount than other franchises that may focus more on finding a deal that makes both sides happy.”

“Giddey may seek a deal in the Quickley range ($32.5 million per season), which is probably too rich for the Bulls' preference.”

“That's why the guard needs to have a big year—enough to attract an offer from the Nets. Alternatively, the Wizards could be an option. While they don't project to have significant cap space, a trade or two may change that equation.”

“Contract Prediction: $112 million, four years. Potential Landing Spots: Brooklyn Nets, Washington Wizards, Chicago Bulls.”

In another absurd plot twist, maybe Lonzo Ball turns in an excellent season for Chicago and convinces the Bulls to re-invest in his future, despite Ball’s horrifying history of injuries. If Ball’s reps agree to sign a team-friendly deal, he might be a better option as the Bulls’ point guard of the future than Giddey. It all sounds whacky, but this is the NBA, where amazing happens.

A new report surfaced this morning from NBA Insider Jake Fischer that new Bulls guard Josh Giddey is seeking upwards of $30 million annually in his next contract. Is he worth that much? The answer right now is no, probably not. But the good news is, Chicago doesn’t have to make that decision today. They’ll do their due diligence with Giddey this season and see what kind of player they have in him.

So what’s it going to take for him to get that $30 million AAV he reportedly wants? I think the answer is pretty simple and straightforward – he’s going to have to add the three-point shot to his game. I’m not saying he has to turn into a 40% shooter from deep overnight. Giddey does a lot of things really well. He rebounds, he passes, he can run an offense, but last year he was exposed for his inability to hit open jump shots. Heck, down the stretch and in the playoffs teams were leaving him open and daring him to take threes.

If Giddey wants to get paid, we’re going to have to see that percentage rest at about 35% or so. He doesn’t need to be the best shooter on the team, but he has to prove that he at least has to be respected from out there.

He’ll also have to improve a bit defensively. No one will every mistake him for Alex Caruso, but defense is largely about desire and hustle. Sure, there are instincts and natural talent factors, but defense is one thing that can be largely improved by hard work.

Can Giddey get there? I hope so. I hope we’re talking about him getting Immanuel Quickley money because that means he’s cleaned up the areas of his game the Bulls need him to and his season in Chicago was a success. However, if he doesn’t, then we’re looking at a failed gamble from the front office on moving an asset as Alex Caruso without getting any draft compensation back.

If one thing is for sure, the Chicago Bulls have added someone who can impact multiple areas of the box score. Josh Giddey provides a rare feel for the game at the young age of 22 years old. While he may not be the most explosive athletically, he possesses strong ball-handling skills and superb passing instincts. He’s averaged at least 6.9 assists per 36 minutes in each of his first three seasons. Equally as encouraging, Giddey has remained an active participant on the glass. He isn’t afraid to use his six-foot-eight frame to fight for defensive boards or keep offensive possessions alive.

Nevertheless, Giddey’s 2023-24 stat line saw a dip in almost every facet. The guard experienced a drastic change in role, which included playing far more off the ball. We watched his minutes drop by nearly 6 minutes per contest, while his assist numbers went from slightly over 6.0 per game during his first two years to 4.8. Giddey also averaged 16.6 points a night in 2022-23 compared to his 12.3 per game last season.

The expectation is we see most of these numbers trend up this season, as the Bulls plan to see if Giddey can play the role of their future point guard. In my opinion, the two most important numbers to keep an eye on for the guard will be his 3-point shooting percentage and turnover numbers.

While Giddey’s clip has improved behind the arc each year, these improvements have been minor at best. For his game to really open up in the way the Bulls want, he’ll have to become at least respectable from deep. As for the turnovers, as talented as a distributor as Giddey is, he can be far too loose with the basketball. There will be some growing pains as he tries to feel out his new teammates, but the Bulls will want their future primary ball-handler to limit risky mistakes.

Josh Giddey struggled to make a winning impact during his time in Oklahoma City. Now, some of this is also due to the fact that OKC was in a rebuilding period. We all know development was largely the priority through Giddey’s first two seasons.

Nevertheless, the on/off stats have left a lot to be desired on both ends of the floor. Giddey finished with just a -1.7 efficiency differential last season, per Cleaning the Glass. To be sure, this was at last an improvement on his staggering -8.2 efficiency differential in 2022-23, which ranked in the league’s 13th percentile. However, the role Giddey played in 2022-23 is going to be far more reflective of the one he’ll play this year in Chicago, so take that as you will.

Giddey was a net negative on the floor offensively during his first two seasons before finishing as a +0.8 in a limited role last season. For someone whose value primarily resides on the offensive end with his facilitating and interior scoring potential, you certainly hope to see some big improvement this year.

If I haven’t made it clear already, Josh Giddey’s playmaking potential is what makes him such a tantalizing prospect. Few players his age have the court vision or instincts that he does. He will feel out of the game and control the pace of play accordingly. Need to get ahead of the defense in transition? Giddey can do that. Need to slow things down in crunch time and set up the drive-and-kick? Giddeys got it. For a Bulls team that has operated with such a one-dimensional offense in recent years, the jumbo guard will be a breath of fresh air.

Despite Josh Giddey’s elite six-foot-eight frame, the guard has been stiff on the defensive end pretty much ever since he entered the league.

One reason for this is a lack of raw athleticism. Giddey isn’t particularly light on his feet or twitchy, which can lead to smaller guards on the perimeter blowing right past him. He’s also very slow to react at times when rotating or closing out on shooters. The Bulls’ backcourt defense projects to be extremely ugly with Giddey playing alongside Zach LaVine and Coby White. And, unless the guard can show real progress on that end this year, this will be a long-standing issue.

The good news is that Giddey has already mentioned defense as an area he plans to improve. During his first discussion with Bulls reporters, he was the one to mention this end of the floor as a real priority.

“It was probably a blessing in disguise for me,” Josh Giddey said of his third year in OKC. “It taught me what I need to work on. How I need to get better. Obviously, shooting is a big one. But also the defensive end. I think coming into this offseason a switch just flipped in my mind, and I just realized to be at the highest level, you’ve got to really compete at that end. You got to be able to sit down guard guys. That’s a side of the ball I want to take pride in.” 

An honorable mention for things to be most worried about … Giddey’s interior finishing. For someone with his strong upper body and crafty ball-handling, you want to see him shoot better than 60 percent at the rim. Yuck.

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