Football is back, and the 2024 NFL kickoff game will see two familiar opponents face off Thursday night as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens. In a rematch of the 2023 AFC Championship Game, Kansas City is chasing history and aiming to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls, while Baltimore looks to spoil the party. This opener features a quarterback duel for the record books: Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson -- the first time two multi-MVP winners under 30 have faced off in Week 1.
The defending Super Bowl champion has lost just five times since 2004 when appearing in the kickoff game. The Chiefs are the second team to appear in the game two years in a row -- the Patriots are the other. A loss to Baltimore would mark the second straight loss for Kansas City in the season opener, and the third in a row for a reigning Super Bowl winner -- the Los Angeles Rams lost in 2022. That would mark the first time the defending Super Bowl champion has lost its season opener in three straight seasons since 1981-83.
There is no better way to kick off an NFL season than with a highly anticipated rematch of one of 2023’s game-of-the-year candidates: the AFC title game between the back-to-back champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens. In their hotly contested playoff matchup, both defenses performed outstandingly, particularly in the second half as the offenses scored a combined three points. Each team did somewhat struggle to find consistent footing on offense, and that was the difference. Ultimately, the Chiefs’ modest first-half lead proved too much for the Ravens to overcome.
Baltimore was left stagnant on offense, unable to execute in the passing game and largely abandoning the run early. The soon-to-be-named 2023 MVP Lamar Jackson was limited to just a 50.6 PFF passing grade, due largely to the offense's inability to adjust the game plan to get the ball out quicker. Kansas City subsequently racked up 17 pressures in the second half, including a trio of brutal sacks. The Ravens largely ignored the run game — handing just six carries to running backs in the game — despite the Chiefs' second-worst-ranked EPA per rush leading up to the contest, leaving many questioning their game plan. That undoubtedly led to the signing of Derrick Henry this offseason.
Kansas City head coach Andy Reid also shuffled his roster this offseason, with talented cornerback L’Jarius Sneed departing but rookie wideout Xavier Worthy joining via the draft. At the end of the day, the road to the Super Bowl still runs through Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The question is: Can anyone overtake them?
The reigning MVP clocked 46 dropbacks in the last Chiefs-Ravens matchup, but he managed just 20 completions, with his offense scoring 10 points by the time it was all said and done. That game plan won’t cut it this time around. Throughout 2023, Jackson averaged just over 19 completions per game, surpassing this line in nine games. The two-time MVP is more than capable of airing out the football, but the Ravens' offense is undoubtedly more effective when the ground game sets up the pass, having clocked the fourth-highest EPA per play figure after a run last season.
Maximizing that output was exactly their aim when adding Derrick Henry to this backfield to complement Jackson. That investment in the run game will be on full display as Baltimore looks for redemption from its playoff exit. While Henry isn’t explicitly known for his receiving ability, he’s not without talent in that area, coming off a career-high 70.7 PFF receiving grade in 2023. The bruising back averaged roughly 1.8 targets per game last season, which allowed him to surpass this yardage threshold in 10 games. After a long offseason, teams may forget that Henry is a bulldozer in the open field, regardless of how he gets the ball. In five of his eight career Week 1 appearances, Henry easily eclipsed this receiving yardage mark. Three of those games also ended up being Henry’s biggest receiving outputs of the season, including in 2023.
Baltimore struggled to put up points in the AFC title game, and for much of the game struggled to move the ball as well. Of its first eight drives of the game, only two gained more than 30 yards, and only one went more than one yard into Kansas City territory. The Ravens then put together a five-play, 63-yard drive that ended with Zay Flowers' fumble near the goal line; a 12-play, 74-yard drive that ended with Deon Bush picking off Lamar Jackson in the end zone; and a nine-play, 29-yard drive that culminated in a Justin Tucker field goal to cut Kansas City's lead to 10 before the Chiefs just ran out the clock. That's 145 yards on 32 plays (4.5 per play) across the first eight possessions (one of which was a kneel-down), followed by 166 yards on 29 plays (5.7 per play) across the final three.
Baltimore's running game was just about non-existent, even before the Ravens essentially decided to give up on it. Gus Edwards had a 15-yard run on the second drive of the game, but he, Justice Hill and Zay Flowers otherwise combined for just 12 yards on seven carries. Jackson saw his passing windows shrunk by Steve Spagnuolo's suffocating secondary, while at the same time Kansas City's blitzing pass rush bore down on him and forced him into errant throws and bad decisions. He finished just 20 of 37 for 272 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Not many of the changes that have been made since late January work in Baltimore's favor. The Ravens have swapped out three of their five starting offensive linemen (Morgan Moses, Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson), for example, and they have not added much in the way of difference-making pass-catchers (they lost Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted Devontez Walker). What they did add, though, is Derrick Henry. And he changes the run-game math considerably.
Jackson has long juiced the efficiency of his backfield mates, and Henry has of course been remarkably efficient for most of his career. He saw his yards per carry plummet over the last two years, but the hope is that playing next to Jackson and behind a line that is not the worst in the NFL can reinvigorate him. He still needs only a sliver of space to devastate a defense, and nobody in the NFL is better at creating those slivers than is Jackson. Throw in the fact the Kansas City's defense is much better against the pass than the run, and you potentially have a recipe for a much different game than the one we saw eight months ago. If the Ravens fall behind, though, or if Kansas City's run defense is able to corral Henry after short gains rather than allowing explosives, then the Chiefs do still have similar pass-game advantages to those they had last year. Similar is the key distinction there, though, because there are perhaps a few more areas the Ravens can potentially exploit -- namely at cornerback, where L'Jarius Sneed is being replaced by a conglomeration of young players, none of whom has apparently stood out enough to be named the definitive starter.
Whether that spot is exploitable for Baltimore depends at least in part on whether star Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie shadows Zay Flowers everywhere he goes, or if Flowers is able to draw one of Jaylen Watson, Joshua Williams, Chamarri Conner or Nazeeh Johnson into space and work against them instead. Flowers is Jackson's most explosive pass-catcher, and the one able to separate from defenders most quickly. He is essentially a human joystick, and if Todd Monken can scheme him into space and Jackson can quickly and decisively find him, there are yards to be had. The same is potentially true for Mark Andrews against the Chiefs' two-high coverages, which are at times vulnerable to passes in the middle of the field. That's where Jackson and Andrews do their most damage, and it'll fall on Nick Bolton, Leo Chenal, Justin Reid and Bryan Cook to surround the big tight end and take away his shots up the seam and his YAC opportunities on crossers.
The Ravens will also have to find a way to neutralize Spagnuolo's pressures in a way they mostly haven't in previous matchups. The Chiefs have blitzed Jackson on 39.2% of dropbacks during his career, the second-highest rate among teams against whom he has played more than one game. He's completed just 53% of his passes at an average of 7.0 yards per attempt on those plays, and he's converted just 26.7% of third-down opportunities when blitzed. If the Ravens can't figure out a way to win in those situations, it'll be difficult for them to get over the jump and beat the Chiefs themselves.
We're likely to see fairly significant change on this side of the matchup. The Ravens saw a coaching exodus on the defensive side of the ball this offseason, with Mike Macdonald leaving to take the head-coaching job in Seattle, Dennard Wilson becoming the defensive coordinator in Tennessee and Anthony Weaver being hired as the defensive coordinator in Miami. Former linebackers coach Zach Orr takes over for Macdonald, while secondary coach and pass-game coordinator Chris Hewitt was given the additional title of assistant head coach. There's some coaching continuity there, but also fairly significant brain drain. And it doesn't end with the coaching staff.
Patrick Queen left in free agency, as did Geno Stone, and Jadeveon Clowney. Eddie Jackson came in to play the Stone role; the Ravens drafted edge rusher Adisa Isaac; and they added more bodies in the secondary with Nate Wiggins (who looked awesome in the preseason), T.J. Tampa and Sanoussi Kane. Along with holdover stars like Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, Nnamdi Madubuike and Marlon Humphrey, as well as strong contributors in Marcus Williams, Brandon Stephens, Michael Pierce, Travis Jones, Kyle Van Noy and more, there is plenty on hand to remain an excellent defense. The question is whether the Ravens will be able to reach that level again right away, in a hostile environment against the two-time defending champions. Having undergone so much change this offseason, it's a difficult ask. That's especially true because Kansas City has made improvements on offense. Second-round pick Kingsley Suamataia should be an upgrade over Donovan Smith at left tackle. First-rounder Xavier Worthy is on hand to add juice to the passing game. At the very least, the receivers should be more reliable than they were for most of last season; they almost can't be any worse, and Rashee Rice should have a full-time role from the jump this time around, while Worthy looks set to be more immediately involved than Rice was last year. Throw in Travis Kelce and his improvisatory rapport with Patrick Mahomes, and you are once again cooking with gas. (How the Chiefs manage Kelce's reps to keep him healthy is something to watch. He took more snaps off last year than at any time in recent memory, and that should continue this season.) Whether and how Baltimore is able to generate pressure up front, and how quickly that pressure can get home, will determine whether the new-look deep passing game the Chiefs want to get back to will be operational in this one, but that's another added element for the Ravens to deal with.
How the Ravens choose to deploy their secondary against KC's weapons will be an interesting thing to watch. Hamilton is the best theoretical matchup for both Kelce and Rice. Who does he cover? If he's on Kelce, does Humphrey follow Rice? If so, does Baltimore have anyone fast enough to keep up with Worthy? If not, can Ar'Darius Washington hang with Rice in the slot, despite a significant size disadvantage? How big a role will Wiggins play in Week 1? How will responsibilities be distributed between Williams and Jackson when they go to three safety looks? Can Trenton Simpson capably handle the role previously filled by Queen? All of these are questions without obvious answers. Even if they are adequately answered, though, there is still the problem of dealing with Mahomes himself. You can have all the answers you want, and Mahomes can and often will still beat you. Blitz, drop into zone, play shell coverages, play man... there is nothing you can throw out there that is going to flummox either him or Andy Reid.
The Ravens should again be a solid unit against the run, though the interior of Kansas City's offensive line could generate some advantages, particularly against the non-Madubuike members of Baltimore's defensive front. If Isiah Pacheco gets rolling downhill, that only opens up more opportunities for the Chiefs in the passing game.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Ravens 23
Kansas City lost the home opener last year, but that Chiefs team didn't have Chris Jones and was playing with an injury-hampered Travis Kelce. This Chiefs team is healthy and somehow more talented than it was a year ago. The Ravens remain one of the top contenders to their throne, but it will take a while longer for the champs to be dethroned.
