China vs. Japan: A Crucial World Cup Qualifier

The fact that it only occurred two months ago should mean the pain and humiliation remain fresh in the memory of China. But, as they look to continue their mini-resurgence in the third round of Asian qualifiers for the 2026 FIFA World Cup on Tuesday, it will be interesting to see how far the Chinese have come since they opened their campaign with a humbling 7-0 loss at the hands of Japan. This upcoming match is a rematch of that devastating encounter, a stark reminder of the gulf in class between the two teams.

Japan's Dominance in Asian Qualifiers

In all fairness, defeat has been the norm for any team coming up against the mighty Samurai Blue in recent times. The Japanese have won ten of their 11 outings in the Asian qualifiers so far. Only Australia were able to hold out for a draw last month. In that time, Japan have racked up a staggering 43 goals while conceding just once. This dominance underscores the challenge facing China.

China's Recent Resurgence

Still, the fact that it is China who have been handed the biggest defeat thus far would have been a bitter pill to swallow, especially considering they -- on paper, at least -- are no slouches themselves and would have been hoping to give a better account of themselves even if victory was never on the cards. Nonetheless, if it is too soon to say for certain that China have turned the corner, they are minimally approaching the junction. After ending a run of four straight defeats (including one in the previous round) last month against Indonesia, the Chinese made it two wins in a row last Thursday when they grinded out another victory -- this time away to Bahrain. This mini-revival offers a glimmer of hope.

The Stakes: A Battle for Qualification

With Japan running away at the top of Group C, the battle for the second automatic qualification berth remains an open race with just three points separating second-placed Australia and bottom side Indonesia. Five games, and 15 points, are still on offer. Even a top-four finish would keep the World Cup dream alive for another round, where another two spots will be up for grabs. Despite their torrid start to the third-round campaign, China are well and truly back in the mix as their six-point haul leaves them level with Australia and Saudi Arabia in joint-second. This keeps their World Cup hopes alive.

Tactical Changes and Key Players

Credit where it is due, a revival in China's fortunes has come off the back of some difficult, even brave, decisions from coach Branko Ivanković. While Zhu Chenjie and Tyias Browning are the higher-profile, more obvious first-choice options at centre-back, the introduction of 23-year-old Jiang Shenglong has steadied the ship. A veteran at club level but still relatively untested on the international stage, 32-year-old Li Lei has been a consistent contributor at left-back even if he still only has 15 caps to his name. A switch to a diamond midfield has also worked wonders, with China a far more compact unit in their past two outings and longer overly prone to being dragged out of position by opposition teams. With Wang Shangyuan as the anchor, it has freed up the equally-combative Li Yuanyi to start applying defensive pressure further up the field. Yet, perhaps the biggest improvement - and this might have previously been sacrilegious to suggest -- has come with Wu Lei out of the side, even if it originally happened due to injury. China's best and most-experienced player by a significant margin, Wu has -- for over a decade -- been the barometer for his country, and his résumé -- given he spent several years in LaLiga with Espanyol -- speaks for itself. Nonetheless, while he continues to score freely in the Chinese Super League with Shanghai Port, having set a new single-season record of 34 goals this year, he has not been able to replicate it for his country. Apart from four goals in two games against minnows Singapore, Wu has failed to score in his past ten international appearances dating back to last November. Going further back, his most-recent strikes have come against teams like Thailand, Vietnam, Palestine and Myanmar. His last strike against a side that can be considered to be superior opposition came against Australia back in 2021. Without being overly critical, the 32-year-old is currently more a flat-track bully than a player China can rely on when they need the most. The same can be said for the naturalised Brazilian-born Fernandinho, who much has been expected off. He has scored just once in seven matches since winning his first cap earlier this year and, perhaps by no coincidence, was completely absent from China's past two victories. In their absence, Zhang Yuning and Behram Abduweli have led the line. If not brilliantly, then admirably. Although his scoring rate isn't the best for a striker, especially one that has Eredivisie experience with Vitesse and ADO Den Haag, Zhang never gives anything short of 100%. He does not care how he puts the ball into the back of the net and his endeavour was rewarded with crucial goals against Indonesia and Bahrain. Meanwhile, at just 21, Abduweli could be the future of Chinese football. He never made the breakthrough at CSL giants Shandong Taishan although he featured prominently in their ill-fated 2022 AFC Champions League campaign. Given travel restrictions over the coronavirus pandemic at the time, Shandong opted to send a squad made up of second-string and youth players to the centralised tournament -- where they picked up just one point from six outings, conceding 24 goals and scoring only two in the process. Up against the odds, Abduweli was one of the few who caught the eye. He has now moved on to Shenzhen Peng City and, while he is far from the finished article, is another who -- at the very least -- is guaranteed to put in a shift and offer some sort of presence.

The Underdogs' Fight: Can China Pull Off an Upset?

For all the improvement they have shown since the start of the campaign, China will once again be huge underdogs against Japan on Tuesday -- even with home advantage in Xiamen this time around. Even if another defeat is on the cards, China can still show how far they have come. More fight. More threat to the opposition. Anything but another 7-0 humbling. The match will be a true test of China's progress and their ability to compete at the highest level of Asian football. Mainland football fans are praying that the men’s national team lose by only one or two goals in their crucial World Cup qualifying match against Japan on Tuesday evening. Despite fans expecting a loss, international football in China has seen a rare showing of optimism, as the side goes into the game off the back of two wins. Manager Branko Ivankovic has promised fans that his team will give it their all at the Xiamen Egret Stadium and has not ruled out his side upsetting the giants of Asian football. Football commentator Zhan Jun wrote on Weibo: “Most Chinese national football team fans will not have high expectations for the result tonight, and the players will not be under too much pressure. They need to try their best.” Zhan’s post sparked debate among fans, with many outlining their predictions for the game. “Japan is [likely] to have 90 per cent possession, and the score will be 0:1 or 0:2. Don’t have any illusions, our strength won’t allow it,” one Weibo user wrote. The atmosphere surrounding the match is one of cautious optimism, tempered by the reality of facing a superior opponent.

The Road Ahead: A Long Shot, But Not Impossible

China's journey to the 2026 World Cup remains challenging. However, their recent wins demonstrate a newfound resilience and tactical awareness. The match against Japan will serve as a critical benchmark of their progress. While a victory might seem unlikely, the possibility of a respectable performance, showcasing significant improvement since their previous encounter, remains a realistic goal. The future for Chinese football remains uncertain, but the team's recent performances offer a glimpse of hope. The upcoming match against Japan presents a valuable opportunity for growth and a chance to further solidify the progress they’ve made.