The Cleveland Guardians have spent the last 125 days in first place in the American League Central, and their lead has climbed out to 9.0 games on June 25 during that stretch.

However, that lead is starting to dwindle and the race for the AL Central crown is heating up with about 50 games left to play in the season.

Cleveland currently has a 3.5-game lead on the Minnesota Twins, with whom they have a four-game series this weekend.

How did the Guardians find themselves in this situation?

Cleveland limped into the All-Star Break with a struggling rotation, dormant offense, and overworked bullpen. Since the midseason hiatus, the Guardians have suffered largely the same issues and have a record 9-10. They’re also currently on their longest losing streak of the season, dropping the last five games.

It also doesn’t help that the Guardians have arguably the toughest remaining schedule in baseball.

All of this has allowed the Twins to get back into contention and they could very well have the lead in the division this time next week. But they’re not the only team the Guardians should be worried about. 

The Kansas City Royals are one of the hottest teams in baseball, with a record of 12-7 since the All-Star break, are just 4.0 games out of first place, and Bobby Witt Jr. has legitly looked like the American League MVP during that stretch.

Out of the Guardians, Twins, and Royals, Kansas City arguably has the best rotation, which could end up being the difference-maker come October.

The Guardians are still in first place in the division, but that lead is dwindling and could be lost if they don’t snap out of their losing streak soon. 

Guardians' Struggles and the Road Ahead

Stephen Vogt, the Guardians' manager, has spoken about the team's need to survive the week ahead. The Guardians' schedule features crucial games against the Diamondbacks, Twins, and Cubs. The upcoming week is crucial for the Guardians and will require them to find a way to keep their lead in the AL Central alive. The Guardians will be looking for a way to get back on track and take control of the division.

A Plan to Survive

Vogt has laid out a plan for the Guardians to weather the storm and make it through this tough stretch.

1. Let it rain: The Guardians could really use a night off after a couple of bullpen-heavy games. With Thursday being an off day, it is highly likely that the Guardians would be able to get a day off tonight. The rain currently has a 50/50 chance of being present when the game is scheduled to start tonight.

2. Free Strzelecki: The Guardians could promote Strzelecki to the major league roster as the 27th man for a doubleheader or as a replacement for Nick Sandlin, who has struggled recently and needs either a reset or an IL stint. Strzelecki has the potential to be a more reliable option than Sandlin. The crucial factor is that if the Guardians promote Strzelecki, they cannot demote him without exposing him to waivers.

3. Let the Old Men Give the Young Guns a Breather: Alex Cobb should be set to start in Minnesota and Matthew Boyd’s start on Wednesday night could see him lined up to start Monday in Chicago against the Cubs. These veterans could give the team a chance to breathe, especially their young starters and dominant but overworked bullpen. If Tanner Bibee’s shoulder is ok, the team can also move Carlos Carrasco to the pen, allowing any tired arms to take a break if something is nagging them, or replacing Pedro Avila (Cookie’s stuff is better than Avila’s, and should play up in the pen).

4. Call Up Kyle Manzardo on Wednesday: The Guardians will face Brandon Pfaadt and then 3-4 right-handed Twins pitchers over the weekend. Manzardo has an .860 OPS against right-handed pitching in Columbus this season and a 138 wRC+ there, overall. He could be a valuable asset in the upcoming series.

5. Quickly realize that Lane Thomas is a platoon bat: Lane Thomas crushes lefties and struggles against right-handers. The Guardians need to leverage Thomas's abilities against right-handed pitchers. He could be a valuable pinch-hitter to smash lefty-relievers. This gives the team a chance to let Angel Martinez or Daniel Schneemann (I prefer they demote Freeman if they’re not going to let him play short, as you can see) get AB’s against RHP, or even Noel who at least gives you home run potential.

Guardians' Betting Interest Slows Despite Consistent Lead

The Cleveland Guardians have been one of the most popular teams to bet on in the American League Central this season. However, their betting interest has slowed down in recent weeks, despite maintaining a comfortable lead in the division.

The Guardians’ division-winner odds at BetMGM were -135 on June 9, well ahead of the Royals (+250) and Minnesota Twins (+400). Over the next four weeks, the gap expanded to six games, Cleveland’s odds jumped to -225, and betting interest increased.

From June 9 through July 8, the Guardians handle share jumped more than 18 percentage points, from 27.2% to 45.8%. (Tickets increased from 24.8% to 27.2%).

After the surge in handle, interest has slowed despite Cleveland holding a lead of at least four games for nearly two straight months.

Since July 8, the Guardians odds have changed several times, though they returned to +225 the first week of August, still well ahead of the Twins (+220) and Royals (+850). The short odds and consistent lead haven’t changed much in the public’s eyes.

As of Monday, Cleveland’s handle share is 46.7%, while their ticket share has marginally decreased to 27.1%. The Detroit Tigers have the largest ticket share — as they’ve had for the entire season — at 34.7% and remain the sportsbook’s biggest liability.

Guardians' Lead Shrinking: What Happens Next

Despite the recent struggles, the Guardians remain in a strong position to win the AL Central. Their lead is still substantial, and they have a talented roster that is capable of turning things around. However, the Twins and Royals are gaining ground, and the Guardians will need to find a way to get back on track if they want to hold onto their division title.

The Guardians' ability to overcome this recent slump will be a test of their resilience and their ability to adjust to the changing landscape of the AL Central. The race for the division title is heating up, and the Guardians will need to be at their best if they want to come out on top. The next few weeks will be critical for the Guardians, and their fans will be watching closely to see if they can overcome this difficult stretch. The Guardians' future in the AL Central hinges on their ability to navigate through this turbulent stretch and maintain their winning ways. The next few weeks will be a true test of their mettle and a defining moment for this young team.