Fantasy Football Week 8 Starts & Sits: Kupp's Return, Henry's Dominance, and the Rise of Wicks

Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.

It's too early to be absolutely sure which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.

We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Derrick Henry). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.

Rams vs. Vikings

While I am excited that Puka Nacua is coming back, I still feel like Thursday will be when the Rams will showcase Cooper Kupp to the rest of the league. That said, there isn't a better matchup for both guys to come back to: No one in the NFL has allowed more PPR points per game to receivers than the Vikings. The reason for that is because Minnesota's defense sees more targets to receivers than all but one team. The data says Minnesota's about league average across the board against receivers, save for not letting them break for many yards after the catch. But The Rams want to be a pass-heavy team and figure to be in a position where they'll have to/want to throw a bunch. Tack on the Vikings expected to blitz Matthew Stafford a bunch and we should see a lot of short targets Kupp and maybe a few less than normal to Nacua since he's just now returning to action without weeks of practice like Kupp had. Two more things: One, last year when these guys both played at the same time, Kupp saw nearly twice as many red-zone targets and scored more touchdowns than Nacua. The Lions had two scores against Minnesota last week out of the slot, so that trend could continue. Two, in his last six games with both Kupp and Nacua last year, Stafford had 22-plus Fantasy points in five games. Minnesota's allowed at least 23 Fantasy points to 2 of the past 3 QBs they faced.

Eagles vs. Bengals

Stuffing the Giants and Browns run games in consecutive weeks doesn't make the Eagles run defense dominant, but it doesn't mean Chase Brown will have an easy time, either. Already limited to 15 or fewer carries in four straight games, Brown has been a little too touchdown-dependent than initially believed. He gets mild usage in the passing game, but Zack Moss remains the team's preferred passing-downs back, which means if the Bengals play from behind this week, it'll mean more Moss rolling while Brown sits like a stone. Only two RBs -- Alvin Kamara and Bijan Robinson -- have compiled more than 13 PPR points against the Eagles this season, and only Bucky Irving has scored on them this year.

Ravens vs. Browns

I'm a little curious how the Browns, who are fifth in defensive rush EPA, 10th in yards per carry allowed (4.2), and third-best in 5-yard rush rate allowed, will hold up against Derrick Henry. Remember, they shut down Saquon Barkley two games ago after getting thoroughly embarrassed by the Commanders run game. But you're already starting, Henry. So what about Nick Chubb? Last week was a good step in his recovery from a devastating knee injury, but I can't say whether or not he has his speed back because his offensive line did next to nothing to create lanes for him. Case in point: he averaged 0.27 yards before contact per rush. I don't think having Jameis Winston under center will deter the Ravens from stacking the box against Chubb. Besides, the Ravens are eighth in defensive rush EPA, first in yards per carry allowed (3.1), and tops in five-yard rush rate allowed.

Lions vs. Titans

There have been 57 snaps out of 371 where the Lions starters haven't had Jameson Williams on the field with them. That's not a lot. On those snaps, Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen five targets, and Tim Patrick has seen four. No one else on the Lions has seen more than two. That includes Sam LaPorta, who's had one measly target without Williams -- and it was good for a 52-yard touchdown against Dallas. I'm not sure if that's the glimmer of hope we want to make LaPorta a reliable start for these next two games without Williams, especially since he's already been involved all season (77% route rate) without getting a lot of targets (2.8 per game). But it doesn't help that the Titans haven't allowed a touchdown to the position. Dalton Kincaid had six targets and had 8.2 PPR points last week, the most the Titans have allowed to a tight end this year. Finally, the Titans traded Ernest Jones, arguably their best run-stopping linebacker, making the matchup even better for the Lions run game.

Colts vs. Texans

Houston figures to play plenty of zone coverage without blitzing Anthony Richardson very much. They can still get pressure without the blitz -- they're fourth in the NFL in sacks with 22. Richardson continued to not only be inaccurate last week (42% completion rate) but also aggressive (a third of his throws went 15-plus Air Yards). That's a weird combination that Indy has seemingly embraced for the time being. With Richardson against zone coverage this year, Michael Pittman has the highest target per route run rate at 33%, followed by Josh Downs at 24.2%. No surprises there. Pittman had eight targets in Week 1 and turned them into a 4-31-0 stat line. It's too bad because Houston has struggled with high-volume receivers all year -- five of the six wideouts to cash in for at least 15 PPR points against them have had at least eight targets.

Packers vs. Jaguars

A deep data dive into the Packers WRs has me more excited about Dontayvion Wicks than I thought I'd be. Wicks and Christian Watson have been rotating as the Packers' deep threat from play to play -- last week, they both had about a 50% route rate and only shared two snaps, and on the season, they've played on 27 snaps together. Their roles based on their deep ADOTs and route depth averages are the same, but that's where the similarities end. With Watson out in Weeks 4 and 5, Wicks saw a target per route run rate of 29%, which is enormous. With Watson back in Weeks 6 and 7, Wicks' target per route run rate increased to 37.5%! That means for every eight routes Wicks ran, he saw a target on three. That's awesome, and it should make his numbers electric against a Jaguars pass defense that is bottom-four in pass defense stats against receivers like completion rate allowed (69.2%), defensive EPA (third-worst), completions of 20-plus yards (21 is worst in the league), and yards after catch per reception (5.2 yards, fourth-worst). The only catch is that the Jaguars play a lot of man-to-man, and the Packers tend to reel in their receivers' routes against man coverage. But it doesn't stop Wicks from seeing a lot of targets; he actually leads the Pack in targets versus man coverage this year, one more than Romeo Doubs, who has put together two good games since leaving the team over playing time issues. Wicks is fun but more volatile than Doubs, who might be trusted a little bit more in PPR as a safer option.

Dolphins vs. Cardinals

Without Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins ranked dead last in almost every single passing stat, and by a wide margin. They were also blitzed the least, which tells you all you need to know about how defenses viewed Miami's backup quarterbacks. The only difference I might expect from Miami's offense this week is that they run a little more because they've had modest success rushing with Raheem Mostert back. I've long bemoaned the Cardinals run defense, but they deserve heaps of credit for slamming on the Chargers last week, holding them to 2.7 yards per rush and just four carries of five-plus yards. Problem is that the Cardinals weren't particularly great against the run in the four games before Week 7, allowing the Lions and Commanders to dominate them while the 49ers and Packers were held out of the end zone. When Miami does throw, especially off of play-action, they're likely to see heavy zone coverage, and Tagovailoa won't have to deal with Arizona's top pass rusher as Dennis Gardeck was lost for the year with a torn ACL. This is a great, albeit safe, matchup for Tagovailoa to get back on track.

Jets vs. Patriots

First, it was the timing being off with Aaron Rodgers. Then the timing got better, but the explosiveness wasn't quite there. Then, the explosive plays started to come in the game before the Jets traded for Davante Adams. And now Garrett Wilson was the intended target on both of Rodgers' interceptions last week against the Steelers, even though neither could really be blamed on him. If there was ever a matchup to cure these ills, it's this week against a Patriots defense that Rodgers roughed up in Week 3. However, you can be sure that Rodgers will want to get in sync with Adams too, and if the Patriots don't put up points to keep the game close, we could be looking at low volume for the Jets passing game, which Rodgers desperately needs after throwing 42, 54, 35 and 39 passes in his past four.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons

I wrote about what to expect from the Bucs passing game moving forward, and save for some fast but unproven receivers; this is probably going to be a muted version of what we've seen -- if not a run-heavy offense first and foremost. Naturally, that crushes the upside that Baker Mayfield previously had and makes him tough to trust. But if the Bucs struggle to put up points, then there's not much chance of Kirk Cousins and the Falcons coming anywhere close to being as explosive as they were against the Bucs back in Week 5. This is also a Bucs run defense that got pounded by the Ravens running backs for 173 yards on 20 carries on Monday. After succeeding on the ground against a good Seattle front last week, the Falcons might be able to run their way to victory without having to be too reliant on Cousins.

Chargers vs. Saints

This figures to be a get-right game for the Bolts, especially if the Saints can't get their defense to play better. Over the past two weeks, New Orleans was smashed by the Bucs and Broncos running backs, which aren't exactly the most dominant run games in the NFL. The Chargers have been much more pass-leaning in their past two games, in part because they've needed to be. This week, they should aim to get J.K. Dobbins rolling again behind their O-line, even against a Saints defense expecting linebacker Pete Werner back. Jim Harbaugh will love every second of it.

Bills vs. Seahawks

The Seahawks offense will be different without DK Metcalf, but the Bills might change how they approach the matchup, knowing they don't have to plan for the gargantuan receiver. Buffalo's pesty pass defense has dabbled with more man-to-man coverage with complementing blitzes this season and, especially in their past two games against the Texans (Nico Collins got hurt in-game) and Titans (they don't have a dangerous passing game). It wouldn't be surprising in the least for the Bills to try that same formula for success this week, particularly since Geno Smith struggles with both pass rush pressure and man coverage. So that could mean more quick-game passing from Smith -- a development that figures to help low-ADOT guy Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His teammate, Jake Bobo, is expected to take Metcalf's snaps, which means he'll play a bunch and perhaps a few more snaps than Tyler Lockett like he did in one game without Metcalf last year, and like both Metcalf and Smith-Njigba do every week. That's another point in Smith-Njigba's favor. The cherry on top? Buffalo's pass defense against receivers who line up in the slot is miserable (79.6% catch rate allowed, 11.1 yards per catch) compared to how they do against receivers out wide (53.5% catch rate allowed, 11.5 yards per catch, both top-five in the league).

Broncos vs. Panthers

Until there's evidence that Bryce Young's game has improved, Fantasy managers shouldn't trust any Panthers in their passing game. Even on two dropbacks in garbage time last week, Young had a designed roll-out off of play-action to rookie tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders for a two-yard gain before hurriedly checking the ball down to Miles Sanders in the right flat for a six-yard loss. That's right, you technically had more receiving yards than Young did. Now, he'll face off against an aggressive Broncos defense that hounded fellow rookie Spencer Rattler more than a week ago. And a quick refresher: Diontae Johnson averaged 6.0 targets per game and 6.8 yards per catch with Young in Weeks 1 and 2. Outside of Chuba Hubbard, there's no one to be particularly thrilled about starting in Carolina.

Chiefs vs. Raiders

I'm not sure if DeAndre Hopkins can outrun many NFL cornerbacks, but he can slip past them with his precise route-running and find spaces between them against zone coverage. He still has great hands and top-level concentration on his targets. So, while he won't help the Chiefs stretch defenses vertically, Hopkins should be more than capable of taking advantage of the kind of coverage he'll get when other teammates do work further downfield. He's also a contested catch weapon in the red zone, which was something the team lacked in their past few games. Las Vegas has been surprisingly good against wide receivers this year, ranking in the top 10 in PPR points allowed both overall and against outside receivers like Hopkins. This matchup remains extremely lucrative for Kareem Hunt, but I can't say Hopkins will join the team right away and start putting up big stats. I'd use him as a No. 3 receiver, nothing more.

Commanders vs. Bears

Marcus Mariota deserves credit for playing well in place of Jayden Daniels last week, but he faces a steep step-up in competition from the listless Panthers to the rampant Bears with one of the most dangerous secondaries in the NFL. But Zach Ertz said something that offers some optimism that Mariota will be okay, telling the Monumental Sports Network that the offense Washington is running now is a virtual mirror of what Mariota ran at Oregon when he won the Heisman Trophy and that Mariota hasn't been in this system since getting drafted. It's the spread offense that works at a fast pace that Mariota seems most comfortable with, per Ertz. I'd be surprised if they have as much success against Chicago as they did against Carolina, but Ertz's comment gives a little hope for himself and Terry McLaurin to have solid games.

Cowboys vs. 49ers

Who will win the battle of attrition between the Cowboys' depleted defense and the 49ers' depleted offense? Getting Deebo Samuel back would obviously be a huge deal for the Niners since he can be a good quick-game option. Plus, anytime Brock Purdy drops back, he won't have to deal with a fierce pass rush as long as Micah Parsons is out -- the only starting QBs to be sacked more than two times by Dallas this year were Deshaun Watson and Justin Fields. But I don't think Purdy will drop back that much -- the three times Dallas has seen over 20 running back carries this season were against the Saints, Ravens, and Lions, and all of them were fantastic. Other teams like the Browns and Giants sort of gave up on the run, and the Steelers may have leaned too much on the run in Week 5 before losing on Dallas' last play. I'll guess the Niners cling to the run game in hopes of pulling out a victory.

Steelers vs. Giants

The biggest change I saw from Russell Wilson in Week 7 compared to his two years in Denver was that he looked comfortable. When pressured, and it was more often than it looked, he had an answer downfield or close by. It was a well-arranged offense that Wilson not only took to but excelled in thanks to his trademark touch on deeper sideline throws that the Jets didn't have an answer for. Without Kayvon Thibodeaux last week, the Giants still created pressure on 52% of Philadelphia's dropbacks and sacked Jalen Hurts four times. Wilson will feel more heat this week than last, but if he avoids it as well as he did last week, then he should once again go off versus a Giants secondary that's not only depleted but that's given up at least 20 Fantasy points to four of the past five passers it's faced.

The Last Word: Who's Got the Hot Hand?

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