Cripps' Record-Breaking 45 Votes: Is the Brownlow Medal Vote Inflation Out of Control?
Twice.
Patrick Cripps polled a frankly ridiculous 45 votes. It’s not as if the award isn’t already a midfielders award - and that’s fair enough, they have the most impact - but we have reached new levels of utterly bonkers vote inflation.
Cripps was, apparently, three best-on-grounds better than the best seasons we’ve ever seen.
There will be plenty said and written about the Brownlow voting system after a crazy night, but this is How Cripps got such a record high total and much more in Talking Points!
HOW THE HELL DID CRIPPA DO THAT?
Even the most optimistic Blues fan would’ve had Patrick Cripps near the record, not demolishing it by nine votes.
To put it into context, Cripps finished 26 votes ahead of Marcus Bontempelli, who was voted AFLPA MVP. As in, the man the players thought had the best season.
That doesn’t happen without some very weird votes and it’s safe to say Cripps got those.
The Wheelo Ratings projection system tipped Cripps for 33 votes - that was around the mark of most computer models - meaning he polled 12 more votes than expected.
Using their numbers, this is where he polled the extras...
- Round 3, projected to poll 1.3 votes and polled 3 votes
No massive problem here. Harry McKay was very good with five goals, but Cripps had 28 disposals and nine clearances.
- Round 4, projected to poll 0.2 votes and polled 2 votes
He was the fourth-best player on the ground per the AFL Player Ratings and the second-best Blue, and they won, so this isn’t completely ridiculous. Though he did only have 20 disposals.
- Round 9, projected to poll 1.7 votes and polled 3 votes
Hard to go past Christian Petracca, who had 21 disposals and five goals, but Cripps was second-best on the ground at worst.
- Round 12, projected to poll 1.7 votes and polled 3 votes
Sam Walsh was picked ahead of Cripps in the coaches votes, after grabbing 34 touches to Cripps’ 22, but he was in the mix for two at worst.
- Round 13, projected to poll 0.1 votes and polled 2 votes
Now we’re getting silly. Cripps was the 11th-best player on the ground per the Player Ratings, and that overstates his case, as he went at 14 per cent kicking efficiency from 19 disposals. He should not have polled these votes.
That’s eight of his extra votes, while the rest of his incredible total was gained through complete consistency.
Late in the season he had games where he was tipped to poll 2.2, 2.4, 2.7 and 2.0 votes (so he was the favourite or close), and got the three votes in all four. That’s unusual to keep polling the maximum but at the same time, those aren’t robberies.
Studying Cripps’ votes like this almost makes it even crazier. There were one or two occasions where he was clearly fortunate to poll like he did, but for the most part, he was genuinely in contention for the 2s and 3s he continually polled.
Usually how it works is players poll in a few games they shouldn’t, but also fail to poll in a few games they should have, so it balances out. Cripps just didn’t have the second part.
So 45 votes is an absurd total, but he’s an absurd player.
DID THE UMPS PICK THE WRONG DAICOS?
Fair play to Nick Daicos, who would’ve won literally any other Brownlow Medal in history.
Unfortunately, for the second straight year, one of his rivals seriously over-achieved on what was expected and it has cost him Charlie. He’ll get one at some point, we’re sure.
Speaking of getting one... it sure seems like he got one vote he shouldn’t have.
On King’s Birthday, Collingwood’s Jack Crisp polled the three votes as expected, following on from his 10 coaches votes.
Then surprisingly came John Noble and Nick Daicos, who were each nowhere near the best players on the ground - Noble (two votes) was 24th, according to the AFL Player Ratings, while Daicos (one vote) was 16th.
Daicos polled despite being subbed out with 15 disposals. He was better than that one number suggests, but he wasn’t spectacular.
Where it gets interesting though is the fact that Josh Daicos had a game-high 34 disposals, and per the coaches, was the second-best player on the ground (seven coaches votes).
Look. We’re not saying the umpires got Josh and Nick confused.
Buuuuuuuuut... it sure seemed like Josh deserved that vote more than Nick did.
HOW DID THESE PLAYERS NOT POLL?
Historically over 90 per cent of players who got 10 coaches votes for a game have polled at least one vote.
These unlucky few were amongst those who missed out completely, on ANY Brownlow votes, in games this season.
- Zak Butters, Round 2 vs Richmond
Game-high 34 disposals at 85.3% efficiency, seven clearances and 13 score involvements.
- Noah Anderson, Round 18 vs Port Adelaide
Had 29 disposals, 16 contested possessions, 11 clearances and nine score involvements.
- Marcus Bontempelli, Round 2 vs Gold Coast and Round 8 vs Hawthorn
He was robbed a few times but these were the big ones.
Had 32 disposals, two goals and two goal assists against the Suns and was clearly best-on, at worst second.
Against the Hawks he had the best game of anyone ALL WEEKEND per the Player Ratings, with 26 disposals, 16 contested possessions, 11 score involvements and two goals.
Meanwhile Karl Amon got two votes for his 15 disposals, his second-worst total of the season! This is genuinely one of the weirdest vote calls we can remember.
- Tom De Koning, Round 13 vs Essendon
Hey look, it’s the game where Cripps got two votes for some reason.
De Koning was best on ground against the Bombers, with 24 disposals, 17 contested possessions, 11 clearances and a general sense of ‘jeez this kid is crazy good’.
AND FINALLY, TO THE NEW KING OF NO VOTES
The list of players who’ve played the most games without polling a Brownlow vote is filled with the type of player who often goes unsung - small/medium defenders, with maybe a tall sneaking in there now and then.
We’re thinking of your Nick Smith, Ben Stratton and Luke Brown types. Great, solid players... who are just never going to get attention from the umps.
That list has a new king with Taylor Duryea moving into first for eligible games played without a Brownlow vote, at 197 matches.
He sits ahead of former record holder Jordan Roughead (193), who is now joined by Sydney’s Harry Cunningham.
