It's been a humbling start for first-rounder Bo Nix, but the rookie QB is primed for a boost in production against a favorable Tampa Bay defense.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
It's not been a pretty start to the season for the Denver Broncos, particularly the offense, which ranks among the worst through three weeks.
However, opportunity knocks on Sunday vs. a banged-up Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary, and my Broncos vs. Buccaneers predictions believe Bo Nix will answer the bell.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this Week 3 showdown on September 22.
My best bet
Bo Nix Over 184.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Bo Nix and this highly-regarded crop of rookie quarterbacks has been highly disappointing to start the year. However, the Denver Broncos pivot made big strides from Week 1 to Week 2, and his passing yards prop of 181.5 is too low ahead of Week 3's matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Don't forget that Nix looked extremely sharp in preseason play, completing 76.7% of his passes for 205 yards with a passer rating of 116.7. He struggled mightily in Week 1, but playing on the road at Lumen Field against defensive guru Mike Macdonald would have been a brutal task for any QB in their first career start.
The former Oregon product threw two interceptions last week but still finished with 246 passing yards against a tough Steelers stop unit, and his teammates didn't make things easy, dropping three passes. While Nix's completion percentage was just 57.1% in Week 2, his adjusted completion percentage was an impressive 74.2% and his average depth of target surged from 6.0 yards in Week 1 to 9.8 yards against Pittsburgh.
This week, Nix takes on a Buccaneers defense that ranks 28th in the league in dropback success rate. The Bucs faced a Commanders offense that rarely threw downfield in their season opener, but they were exposed last week against Detroit, surrendering 324 passing yards.
It doesn't help that the Bucs are extremely banged up on defense. All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield will likely miss his second-straight game due to an ankle injury and three key defensive linemen have also been absent from practice with various ailments.
In addition, the Bucs are 6.5-point favorites for this contest, which could mean a negative game script for the Broncos and plenty of pass attempts from Nix.
Bo Nix Over 184.5 passing yards
Broncos +7.5
Over 39.5
Since I'm expecting a strong performance from Nix, it makes sense to back the Broncos to cover, especially if we push this spread past the key number of 7.
Although Baker Mayfield has been terrific so far this season, the Broncos have a far better secondary than the Commanders and Lions. Denver's defensive weakness has been against the run but the Bucs have one of the worst rushing attacks in the league, so they won't be able to take advantage.
Tampa Bay's defense has allowed just 18.0 points per game, but they might be a lot worse than that number would suggest. The Bucs were fortunate that Washington averaged just 1.6 air yards per completion in Week 1, while Detroit went 1-for-7 in the red zone last week.
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With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.
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