The 2024 NFL season has finally arrived, and it's time to kick off Week 2. Thursday Night Football begins with a game between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins tonight. The Buffalo Bills are hot off a win over the Cardinals, and the Miami Dolphins are also riding high after a last-minute victory against the Jaguars. The Bills at Dolphins game will stream live nationally on Amazon Prime Video tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET. Keep reading to find out what you need to know, plus the rest of the Week 2 NFL schedule.
The Bills visit the Dolphins tonight, Sept. 12 for the first Thursday Night Football game of the season, streaming on Amazon Prime Video.
Amazon Prime Video is the exclusive home for the NFL's Thursday Night Football games, including tonight's Week 2 match-up between the Bills and the Dolphins. On top of Amazon Prime Video, an Amazon Prime subscription includes free shipping, exclusive deals, access to the Prime Day sales events, Amazon Music, a year of free GrubHub+ and more. A standard Amazon Prime subscription is $15 monthly or $139 annually, but discounts are available for students and those on qualified government assistance. You can try Amazon Prime free for 30 days. You can also just subscribe directly to Prime Video and forego all the other Prime Benefits. A Prime Video subscription costs $9 monthly.
Week 2 of the NFL season opens with an AFC East matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins on "Thursday Night Football." Both teams are coming off Week 1 wins.
The Bills have had the Dolphins' number with Josh Allen at quarterback, going 11-2 straight-up against Miami (including playoffs), winning (and covering) both matchups last season to seal the AFC East.
The Buffalo Bills nearly fell flat in their first game of the 2024 NFL season, but after a thrilling 34-28 victory over the Arizona Cardinals, they have no time to rest on their laurels. The Bills head to Florida to take on the Miami Dolphins this week in a Thursday Night Football showdown that will give one of these contenders an early leg up in the 2024 AFC East Division race.
Three of the four AFC East teams were victorious in Week 1, as the New England Patriots shocked fans, pundits, and knockout pool players everywhere by defeating the Cincinnati Bengals. The New York Jets were the lone loser, dropping a 32-19 decision to the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night.
While it may only be Week 2, a divisional game is always important. When it’s against the team most people view as the top challenger for Buffalo’s Divisional crown, it amplifies the magnitude of the contest. Here are five — or so — players we’re watching for a big impact this week.
Josh Allen
In our companion piece examining the Dolphins’ players to watch, we discussed how Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa performs worse than his career averages when playing the Bills. With Allen, it’s the direct opposite when playing Miami.
Whereas Allen averages 240 passing yards per game in his career, he averages 280 passing yards per game against Miami. Allen’s career quarterback rating is 92.3; against the Dolphins, it’s an absurd 110.1 over the course of 12 games. For his career, Allen averages 38 rushing yards per game, but against Miami, he averages 53 rushing yards per game. Allen has 169 passing touchdowns in his career, and 33 of them have come against the Dolphins.
Allen has been nothing short of incredible in his matchups with Miami. After an efficient and spectacular Week 1 effort, he’ll need to follow it up with another stellar performance.
Mack Hollins
Perhaps it was lost a bit in the shuffle of last week’s win, but after rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman, who led Buffalo’s receiver room with 45 offensive snaps, it was Hollins and his 36 offensive snaps coming in second. That was surprising to me, although I suppose it shouldn’t have been given how much the Bills have talked about the veteran free-agent signee since he arrived.
Hollins made just two catches for 25 yards, but he was only targeted twice, as well. One of those catches came when Hollins beat single coverage over the middle and scored a touchdown.
The Bills used Hollins all over the formation, and I expect that to continue this week. I have a sneaking suspicion that he’ll have a bigger game in Week 2.
Dalton Kincaid
The presumed No. 1 receiving target for Allen entering the season only saw two targets in the season opener. He caught one pass for 11 yards — and it was a big catch, as he converted a first down on 2nd & 8 to extend a drive in the fourth quarter. Kincaid is much too talented to continue putting up one catch, 11-yard lines, and even in an offense where “everyone eats,” the Bills know they need to use their hyper-talented tight end.
Kincaid did a lot of good on Sunday, including showing improvement as a blocker and running some fantastic routes. It wouldn’t surprise me to see some packaged plays early where offensive coordinator Joe Brady looks to feed Kincaid the ball (and actually, on Allen’s hurdle touchdown, I thought we were going to see some Travis Kelce-style shovel action coming Kincaid’s way).
Cam Lewis
Next man up. Taron Johnson won’t suit up for Thursday Night Football in Week 2, so enter Cam Lewis, who played exceptionally well last week in Johnson’s place. Lewis had 10 tackles and showed some acute instincts in the run game. He’s an adept zone-cover player who isn’t afraid to mix it up in man coverage from the slot, either.
Last week, the Bills chose to use cornerback Ja’Marcus Ingram as the dime safety; this week, I wonder if the Bills would consider using Kaiir Elam as the nickel corner and Lewis as the dime safety in those looks. Lewis is a versatile-enough player where Buffalo can mix that other corner spot as needed.
Look for the Dolphins to try and isolate wide receiver Tyreek Hill on Lewis over the middle. If that happens, the Bills will be at a distinct disadvantage.
Christian Douglas
Double-dipping on the defensive backfield is big here thanks to the talent Miami has at wide receiver. Douglas is fully healthy, and against a quarterback who loves to hit his back foot and throw, he has the chance to jump a route and make a big play.
Part of the reason Tagovailoa has struggled against the Bills in his career is that Buffalo and head coach Sean McDermott are incredibly adept at presenting one defensive look before the snap and flipping to another after the snap. A player like Douglas, who has game-changing ability when playing off-man or zone concepts, loves to see a quarterback like Tagovailoa.
If Tua trusts his eyes, but it’s really Douglas giving him some bait, then the Bills could have a big play or two on their hands. Of course, the other side of that coin is that Douglas could be caught with his hand in the proverbial cookie jar on a double-move.
I think this is the kind of game where Douglas lives on that edge. He might give up a big play, but if he makes one later on in the game, it will likely be worth the gamble.
The Bills Pass Rush Must Be Effective
I’m not going to pick one guy. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver needs to bring pressure up the middle. Defensive end Greg Rousseau needs to show that he’s really taken the next step towards elite status by following up one fantastic performance with another one. Edge rusher Von Miller needs to prove that he’s back to form. If the Bills can use defensive end A.J. Epenesa outside more to avoid having him do the dirty work of a defensive tackle on passing downs, perhaps he can impact the game a bit more than he did on Sunday, as well.
No matter how you slice it, the pass rush has to force Tua Tagovailoa into quick, poor decisions. If they let him sit comfortably, he will dice up the Bills’ secondary. That can’t happen if Buffalo wants to come back home with a win.
On Thursday night, the Buffalo Bills head south to take on the Miami Dolphins in a pivotal early season matchup in the AFC East.
Both teams are 1-0 after comeback wins in Week 1, and they’ll be looking to secure the top spot in the division with a Week 2 victory.
Let’s look at the matchups and find where the betting value lies.
We have a growing sample of what offensive coordinator Joe Brady wants his offense to look like in Buffalo.
In Week 1, the Bills had a 47% neutral pass-play rate, which would have ranked 30th in the NFL last year. Josh Allen had four pass attempts at halftime.
It’s clear Brady wants to establish the run behind a stout offensive line, and I don’t see that changing on Thursday night against the Dolphins.
Miami’s run defense took a hit over the offseason with the loss of Christian Wilkins.
Last year, the Dolphins allowed 3.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs with Wilkins on the field and 4.3 with him off, according to Sharp Football.
Their run defense held up well in Week 1, but we’ll see if that remains.
The Bills hope to continue getting rookie Keon Coleman involved on Thursday after he led the team with an 86.7% route run rate and 31.3% first-read rate, per Fantasy Points Data.
However, he could draw attention from elite corner Jalen Ramsey, limiting his upside.
After some noteworthy off-field distractions, Miami’s offense took a while to wake up in Week 1.
The Dolphins ranked 20th in offensive EPA/play in the first half and 14th in the second half.
However, there are some serious concerns about the new-look offensive line. Miami generated just 2.99 adjusted line yards (29th) and ran for 59 yards on 21 running back carries (2.8 average).
Miami will be without Raheem Mostert and potentially De’Von Achane on Thursday night.
Achane, who had seven catches for 76 yards last week and ranked third on the team with a 46.3% route run rate, would be a tremendous loss as a receiver.
The Dolphins lost Robert Hunt and Connor Williams to free agency, and Isaiah Wynn is on the PUP list, leaving the team with an entirely new interior offensive line.
That could create problems against a stout Bills front that ranked second in run-stop win rate in Week 1.
In addition, DE Greg Rousseau is coming in off a three-sack game against Arizona.
Tua Tagovailoa ranked just 20th in passing success rate in Week 1, and while he’s capable of another gear offensively, I’m not sure if it will come against the Bills, who have been excellent against him over the years.
Buffalo has held Tagovailoa to a 61.8% completion rate and six touchdowns to seven interceptions across the last six meetings.
Prime-time Unders over the last four seasons have hit at a 59% clip, and according to Action Network’s Brandon Anderson, Thursday Night Football games in September and October with totals of 49.5 or higher are 15-4-1 (79%) to the Under.
Pay attention to the weather report, as well. Thunderstorms with high winds are expected in the afternoon and could linger into the evening.
Recommendation: Under 49 points (-110, BetMGM).
