I’m distracted.
To be clear, some of it is intentional.
Every week, as you probably suspect, I write this column in two parts. The process usually takes two days. Tuesdays are for researching, ranking and deciding who is on which list. Wednesday is writing day, doing both the “opening story” and then the player write-ups. They are often written separately. The order I write them in depends on the week. If I have a great opening story I can’t wait to get to, I start there. If I don’t have anything or I have just a kernel of an idea, but not sure where I exactly want to get to in the story, I write up the players first, working in general nods to what I know what the theme will be.
The reason it takes so long is partially because I obsess over every word, turn of phrase, sentence, joke, and structure! Oh, the structure. There is nothing more important in writing than structure and anyone that tells you different doesn’t know what they’re doing. In addition to all that I struggle with focus. I write a paragraph and then I scroll Twitter/X or Instagram, I look through one my 25 fantasy teams looking for trade possibilities or sneaky waivers moves to make, I glance at email, I answer the zillions of texts that have come in, I’m basically down to do anything that ISN’T writing the column. Eventually a good idea occurs to me, and I get to it and somehow, someway, 5,000 words show up every Thursday morning.
So, distraction is usually part of the process and it’s fun. Wednesday night I tried to distract myself by watching the Mets game in honor of my Fantasy Football Happy Hour co-hosts Connor Rogers and Jay Croucher, not to mention Backup Producer Pete Damilatis and the big boss Matt Casey. I tried to distract myself by doing two different Guillotine League drafts because you can start a Guillotine League whenever you want. You just need one more team than weeks left in the season. So, I did a 12-teamer and 11-teamer yesterday. And I tried to distract myself by going to see my twin daughters play junior high field hockey. (A tough 3-0 loss).
None of it worked.
Because no matter how much I tried to distract myself, I kept coming back to two things. I have no idea or inspiration for a column open this week and non-stop coverage of Hurricane Milton.
It feels like the same coverage of Hurricane Helene, but they’ve just updated the graphics. I’m as transfixed as the rest of the nation, between seeing the awful and incredible devastation caused by Helene to the worry and fear of Milton – will it be as bad? Worse?
Once again, we are seeing real life-threatening stuff as some try to escape the elements, and others are trapped in their homes, unable to get to safety and more importantly, “safety” unable to get to them. I see destroyed homes, flooded streets, wind blowing roofs off stadiums and cars entirely under water. Truly apocalyptic movie type stuff come to real life.
I see social media pleas for help and other social media pleas to stop misinformation. A quick scroll of Twitter/X, Facebook, Instagram or TikTok shows very real images of both the destruction and aftermath of Helene, along with the current rising fear about what is currently happening, and what will happen with Milton.
But beyond being concerned as we all are, I have extra reason for worry. My wife and I have family and dear friends in the Ft. Myers/Naples/Bonita Springs area. We visit there multiple times a year and truly love it. Southwest Florida is a special place. It’s where my wife and I went on our first vacation together when we were dating. It’s where we got engaged. And it’s where we are going to retire.
So, it’s personally very devastating to me to see all of this going on.
Let me be clear here. The most important thing is everyone is safe. Material things – even houses – can be replaced, so I am not trying to minimize that the biggest tragedy of this is the loss of life.
But there are people who have lost their homes.
Again.
The previous four paragraphs? I wrote basically that exact same sentiment when we were all in the middle of Hurricane Ian in September of 2022.
I’ve spent the evening talking with my wife and our friends and family down there. I am on eight billion text chains it seems like, people checking in and asking questions, all of us trying to share scraps of information we can decipher from online, sharing screen shots and links. Look at this! Wait, someone is saying that’s a picture from Ian. Someone else is claiming it’s from Helene. No, the person posting is insisting it’s a current situation with Milton.
It’s scary and it’s unknown and the only thing I know for sure is all of this is awful. We have other friends that were looking to move down there. And, prior to this, because of a lack of materials due to the pandemic and significant demand with people wanting to move to Florida, it was a two- to three-year wait to build something. And now this? People still haven’t recovered from Ian and it’s going to take years in six different states, especially North Carolina, to recover from Helene.
Years upon years. Decades maybe. I don’t know. I just know this is awful, and scary, and the not knowing part of it makes the nightmare even worse somehow.
So anyways, that’s what I’ve been doing this Wednesday night. Thinking, calling, worrying, texting, investigating, trying to help and NOT writing.
I’m praying for everyone in Florida and anyone else that has been, or will be affected, by Hurricane Helene or Hurricane Milton. Brutal stuff and fantasy football is more insignificant than ever with that backdrop.
But that’s the gig and I’m here to help. So, I tried to add some jokes to the player write-ups so this whole column isn’t gloom and doom. But man. It’s just… well, you get it.
Thanks as always to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column. Here we go.
QB Love & Hate
Coming off a game in which he threw for 509 yards, four touchdowns and put up 34.4 fantasy points, Kirk Cousins is obviously playing some darn good football. (Apologies for the swearing, Kirk.) And there’s every reason to believe Cousins can keep it rolling on Sunday in Carolina. The Panthers are allowing touchdown passes at the second-highest rate, have surrendered multiple TD passes in every game so far this season and are giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (18.6 PPG). The Falcons have a top five implied team total this week for a reason: The Panthers defense stinks. (Apologies for the additional profanity.) Cousins is my QB3 this week.
Joe Burrow said after Cincinnati’s latest loss in Week 5 that the Bengals are “not a championship-level team right now.” That’s true, but the Bengals are just one team. Meanwhile, Burrow is on thousands of championship-level fantasy teams thanks to being QB4 on the season and QB2 in PPG (23.2) over the past four weeks. (Please try to keep things in perspective, Joe.) Burrow has a favorable matchup this week against a Giants defense that allows the sixth-highest passer rating against, while QBs facing the Giants are completing 72% of their passes. Cincinnati ranks third in pass rate over expected this season, so look for Burrow to put the ball up early and often on Sunday. I have him as QB5 this week.
It’s been a wild last few days for Dak Prescott. He beat the Steelers in the final minute on Sunday Night Football, almost punched out a referee in the process, demolishes his house on Tuesday on purpose, and now appears on the Week 6 Love List. Why the last one? Because I think Prescott will have a lot of ref-punching opportunities against the Lions in a game that has one of the highest game totals in Week 6 at 52.5. Teams facing the Lions are averaging the third-most pass attempts per game (39.5) thanks in no small part to Detroit ranking fourth in rush defense but 27th in pass defense. And don’t forget, since the start of last season, Prescott is averaging 24.1 PPG. Give me Dak as a top 10 quarterback this week.
Others Receiving Votes
Cincinnati has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the Bengals are also allowing TD passes at the fourth-highest rate. So you could certainly do worse than their Week 6 opponent: Daniel Jones, QB King of New York City. Very quietly, Jones has multiple touchdown passes and 18-plus fantasy points in three of his past four games. … Seahawks-49ers has the third-highest game total (49) of Week 6 and the 49ers are surrendering the fifth-most yards per completion. So, give me some Geno Smith, who has posted 17-plus fantasy points in four of his five games this season. … I’m sure the British fans will be very hospitable to Caleb Williams on Sunday, but it will be hard for them to be as inviting as Jacksonville’s pass defense. The Jaguars rank last in pass defense and have given up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
In Trevor Lawrence’s four career games in London, he’s averaging just 13.7 PPG and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in exactly none of them. Maybe the Jaguars always forget to bring a plug adapter to power up their quarterback for UK games? It’s a theory. Either way, Lawrence has a tough matchup this week against a Bears defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the lowest passer rating against. In fact, four of the five QBs to face the Bears so far this season have scored less than 7.0 fantasy points. I have Lawrence at QB19 this week. There’s a real chance he plays like absolute bollocks. (I really hope Kirk Cousins isn’t still reading.)
Aaron Rodgers has posted less than 12 fantasy points in three of his five games this season. Now he gets a Bills defense allowing the third-fewest yards per completion and that has held Kyler Murray, CJ Stroud, and Trevor Lawrence all under 16 fantasy points. Rodgers is way down at QB20 for me this week in a game in which the Jets have the sixth-lowest implied team total. And really, at this point, you should seriously consider crawling to the waiver wire and leaving Rodgers there, no matter how painful it may be.
RB Love & Hate
Breece Hall has 27 rushing yards on 19 carries over the past two weeks. I’m not saying Robert Saleh deserved to get fired for that alone. I’m just saying Robert Saleh owes me money for the league dues in every league in which I drafted Breece Hall. But – at long last – this could, and should, be the Breece Hall breakout game. Buffalo has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this season, including at least 25 points to RBs in four of their five games. The Bills also allow the most receptions and receiving yards to backs. And get this: seven backs have received 10-plus touches against the Bills this season and five of them scored touchdowns. I have Hall as my RB5 this week. And now I will go check if Robert Saleh’s Venmo came through.
Tony Pollard is averaging 18.5 touches per game this season and has a double-digit target share in every game. I love that workload against a Colts team allowing the fourth-most rushing yards to backs. The Colts are also allowing 165 scrimmage yards per game to backs. I have Pollard as a top 10 back this week. By the way, as a Commanders fan, I would like to thank Pollard for re-igniting his career this season only after leaving Dallas. You’re a good man, Tony.
Running backs who have received more than 15 touches against the Cardinals this season are averaging 17.3 PPG. Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs is averaging 19.6 touches per game. And he may even get more work than usual this week because teams facing Arizona average 26.2 running back carries per game, fourth-most in the league. I bet you’ll never guess why teams run so much against the Cardinals. Oh, you guessed that it’s because they have a bad run defense. It turns out you actually WILL guess why teams run so much against the Cardinals. Well done. Yeah, the Cardinals have allowed the second-most rushing yards to RBs this season. Jacobs is a top 10 back for me this week.
Others Receiving Votes
In every game so far this season, David Montgomery has scored a touchdown. He also has multiple goal line rushes in three of his four games. Now he faces a Cowboys defense that ranks 24th in rush defense this season and is tied for the second-most rushing touchdowns allowed. … Austin Ekeler leads all running backs in fantasy points per touch this season and has double-digit fantasy points in every game so far. He can keep that streak going this week against a Baltimore defense that is bottom 10 in receiving yards allowed to backs. … Last week Tank Bigsby received a season-high snap count of 40%. He also has led the Jaguars in rushing in back-to-back games, and he leads all backs in avoided tackle rate and YAC/attempt this season. I mean, Doug Pederson is starting to rely on the Tank even more than Gen. George S. Patton, amiright? (That joke would have been very funny in 1945, I’m sure of it.) But look for the Tank to keep rolling this week against a Bears defense allowing 5.0 YPC to RBs this season. … Teams facing the Panthers average a league-high 28.4 RB carries per game, so there should be plenty of work available this week for Tyler Allgeier. By the way, the Panthers have also allowed touchdowns to multiple running backs in three of their five games.
WR Love & Hate
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I don’t know if I’ve mentioned this before, but my favorite team has a rookie quarterback and he happens to be pretty good. So I’m sure Patriots fans feel very excited about seeing their own rookie quarterback, Drake Maye, perform in a real NFL game this Sunday. But they should feel less excited about seeing Rhamondre Stevenson perform in the same game. Last week, Stevenson saw a season-low snap rate of just 45%. He also played on just 36% of pass plays. And even when he is involved in the passing game this season, it’s not been all that productive. Stevenson is getting just 2.2 yards per target, lowest among all backs with at least 15 targets on the season. The Patriots also have the lowest implied team total on the Week 6 slate and are the second-biggest underdog (+7). Meanwhile, in games in which New England has lost by more than five points in 2024, Stevenson is averaging just 4.1 PPG. So Stevenson is an easy Hate this week. But hey, Drake Maye!
Tough matchup this week for Javonte Williams. The Chargers rank top 12 against running backs in fantasy points, rush yards and receiving yards allowed. In fact, the Chargers are allowing a league-low 4.2 YPR to running backs this season, while 64% of Williams’ fantasy points this season have come as a receiver. Not ideal. And, in a game in which the Broncos have the second-lowest implied team total, I’m going to pull a Sean Payton here, reference Ferris Bueller, and say that you should consider giving Javonte Williams a day off. He’s outside my top 20 backs in Week 6.
Going back to the start of last season – a span of 21 games – Kenneth Walker III is the only back to rush for 70-plus yards against the Lions. Not a single game of 70-plus yards … an entire game. This team clearly puts the capital D in Detroit and Defense. And a capital L in Lions and in … Limiting-backs-to-less-than-70-rushing-yards-per-game? Okay, we’ll just go with the first one. Anyway, if you want to focus on just this season, the Lions have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs. They’ve also allowed the fourth-fewest rush yards per game to backs, and they’re top five in YPC allowed to the position. Even with Rico Dowdle coming off his best game of the season on Sunday night, this Lions D makes him an easy Week 6 Hate.
Over his last four games, Drake London has received a target share of 28.5% and is averaging 10.3 targets per game. For the full season, he is seeing a whopping 47% of Atlanta’s red zone targets. If the Kirk Cousins-Drake London connection isn’t quite yet what the Cousins-Justin Jefferson connection was, it’s awful close. And now for something that’s close to awful: the Panthers defense. Carolina has allowed multiple touchdowns to wide receivers in three of their past four games, and WRs who have seen seven-plus targets against the Panthers this season are averaging 18.3 PPG. London is a big Love for me this week as WR4.
Baltimore is approximately 38 miles up the road from Washington D.C. But I don’t want to talk about the distance Jayden Daniels can throw a football with a slight flick of his wrist. No, I want to talk about throwing really deep. Get this: Over Terry McLaurin’s last three games, he has an aDOT of 17.6 yards and has seen at least three deep targets in every game. And, over the very same span, McLaurin has averaged 17.2 PPG while earning a 30% target share. Now, McLaurin will travel north to Baltimore to face a Ravens defense that struggles against the deep ball, giving up the most catches and second-most yards when opponents throw deep. The Ravens have also given up the fifth-most fantasy points to WRs this season. Terry could be scary again on Sunday. He’s my WR7.
In a crowded and talented Chicago Bears receiver room, Caleb Williams clearly has found his WR1 in DJ Moore. In every game this season, Moore has a target share of at least 20%. By the way, that’s been a magic percentage against the Jaguars this season as wide receivers who have seen a target share of 20% or higher against Jacksonville are averaging 18.2 PPG. Jacksonville is also dead-last in yards allowed to wide receivers and fantasy points allowed to the position. Let DJ Moore start your NFL Sunday this week with a pile of points before you even finish your breakfast. He’s a top 15 WR in Week 6.
Others Receiving Votes
Washington has already allowed 15-plus points to six different wide receivers. Zay Flowers, who has a target share of 25% or more in four of his five games this season, could very well grow that list to seven. … If you built your fantasy team around Tanks, this could be the week it all pays off. Yes, Xavier Hutchinson will get more run and is worth keeping an eye on while Nico Collins gets healthy, but I say (Think? Hope?) Tank Dell sees much of the 29% target share that Nico Collins’ absence frees up. Remember: In the six games last season in which Dell saw seven-plus targets, he averaged 23.4 PPG. This week he’ll get a Patriots defense that, over the past four weeks, ranks bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. … Over the past four games, Darnell Mooney is averaging 18.1 PPG. He also has a target share of at least 24% in three of his past four games. And over the past two games, he’s seen 55% of his targets come on deep passes. That could work quite well against a Panthers defense that has allowed the second-most touchdowns on deep passes with five. … With Brandin Cooks on the IR, Jalen Tolbert got a lot more run last week, seeing season highs in target share and route participation. Tolbert now has 13 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games heading into a matchup with the Lions defense, which allows the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. … Maybe Michael Wilson isn’t quite yet performing at the level of Arizona receiver legends such as Larry Fitzgerald and Rod Tidwell, but have patience. Wilson has three straight games with a target share of at least 20%. That sort of usage sets up nicely this week against a Packers defense that allows the eighth-most yards to wide receivers. … Over the past four weeks, the Saints have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends. That’s good news for Cade Otton, who over his last three games has a target share of 20%. … Baltimore ranks bottom three in catches and yards allowed to the tight end position. So, give me some Zach Ertz this week. Ertz leads Washington in red zone targets and is second in overall targets on the team. Wait until the Ravens find out it’s still legal to use your veteran TE1 in the passing game.
TE Love & Hate
On Sunday night, Steelers receivers George Pickens wore eye black tape that read “OPEN F****** ALWAYS.” Ladd McConkey may want to consider modifying the look and message this week by writing “PROBABLY NOT OPEN.” Denver gives up the second-fewest fantasy points to WRs this season and are allowing just 8.5 YPR (with no TDs allowed) to the slot – where McConkey does most of his work. In a game with the lowest game total of Week 6 (35.5), it’s hard to forecast a good fantasy performance for the young Ladd. He’s outside my top 30 at the position.
Calvin Ridley has yet to see a red zone or end zone target this season. He has four or fewer receptions in every game and is being targeted on just 16% of his routes. He’s also not getting a lot of easy catches as only 61% of his targets have been catchable. From a fantasy perspective, all of that is about as appetizing as a Big Gulp of mayonnaise. (In case, Will Levis is reading, I mean that in a bad way.) Ridley also has a bad matchup this week against a Colts team that has only allowed one touchdown on a deep pass this season.
After seeing a 24.7% target share in Weeks 1 and 2, Jameson Williams’ share has dipped to 12% over his past two games. Part of that is because Jared Goff ranks 19th in deep ball rate. It’s also very unlikely Goff has much success throwing downfield this week against a Cowboys team that is allowing the lowest completion rate on deep passes. The Cowboys also rank top 10 in fewest fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
After missing the last four games, Evan Engram returns to action this week in London. There could be some rust there. I mean, it rains a lot in London. But there also could be some rust on Evan Engram. Plus, there may be a desire to keep giving some snaps to Brenton Strange, who scored two touchdowns while Engram was out. The Bears are also tough against the tight end position. Over the past four weeks, Chicago is allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to TEs. And on the season, the Bears defense is top 10 in receptions, yards and catch rate allowed to tight ends. You’re probably still starting Engram if you have him rostered in fantasy this week. Just lower your expectations. You know, like you have for every tight end alive in 2024.
The Week 6 Open, or Lack Thereof
I’m not gonna lie to you. I’m distracted. Like, really distracted. And while I have the hurricane worries above, I am also distracted by everything that’s going on in the NFL this week. This week is crazy and I’m trying to process everything that’s happened.
I’m praying for everyone in Florida and anyone else that has been, or will be affected, by Hurricane Helene or Hurricane Milton. Brutal stuff and fantasy football is more insignificant than ever with that backdrop. But that’s the gig and I’m here to help. So, I tried to add some jokes to the player write-ups so this whole column isn’t gloom and doom. But man. It’s just… well, you get it.
