Put away your calculators, Inter Miami fans. Here is all you need to know about Miami’s chances of winning the MLS Supporters’ Shield and securing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs:
If Inter Miami wins at home Saturday against Charlotte FC and beats the Columbus Crew on the road next Wednesday, it would have 70 points with two games remaining in the regular season. No other team could earn more no matter what they do.
As it stands heading into this weekend, Miami is six points clear of the Los Angeles Galaxy and eight points ahead of FC Cincinnati and the Crew. The Galaxy has three games remaining and could earn a maximum of nine points with three victories, which would put them at 67 points. Cincinnati has four games left and could reach 68 points with four wins.
The Crew enters the weekend with 56 points and five games to go. But four wins and a loss to Miami would mean 68 points, giving Inter Miami the edge. If Miami and Columbus were to tie, the race would tighten, but Lionel Messi and his teammates could clinch the shield with eight points over the final four games.
Also within reach for Inter Miami is the all-time MLS record for points. The New England Revolution set the record with 73 points in 2021.
Inter Miami has been perched atop the standings all season, even though Messi missed 17 games due to injury and Copa America. With so much at stake and sky-high expectations on Miami’s star-studded roster, the pressure on the men in pink is mounting as the postseason looms.
A pair of ties on the road last week to opponents Miami was expected to beat (Atlanta United, NYCFC) made the next two games even more critical.
“With this team, we’ve had pressure since January, not only now,” midfielder Yannick Bright said before training Wednesday. “Obviously, there’s a lot of pressure around us and we want to win everything. It’s expected. We’re pretty positive about the future. I’m not really looking into the points record that much. I don’t want to talk about the games outside Charlotte this weekend.”
Midfielder David Ruiz, a Little Havana native and at 20 one of the youngest players on the roster, said veteran teammates such as Messi, Luis Suarez, Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba are helping the group cope with pressure.
“All those stars are always trying to keep us calm, talk to us, support us,” Ruiz said. “Yes, there’s obviously a lot of pressure because they’re big stars, but I feel like the pressure is more on them than us [young players], so that takes the pressure off us.”
Asked if they would consider their season a failure if they don’t win the Supporters’ Shield and MLS Cup, Ruiz said: “I wouldn’t say it’s a failure if we don’t achieve our goals. I would just take it more as a lesson. For me, personally, I’m young and just being able to experience these moments with them is a great learning experience.
“As a team, if we just do our best and go step by step to our objective, that’s all we can do.”
Step one is beating Charlotte at home on Saturday (7:30 p.m., Apple TV). Charlotte is in sixth place in the Eastern Conference and looking to stay above the playoff line.
The road game Wednesday against defending MLS Cup Champion Columbus will be one of the most anticipated matches of the season and a preview of a potential playoff showdown. Inter Miami coach Tata Martino has been singing the Crew’s praises all season, calling coach Wilfried Nancy’s team the best, most consistent, and most disciplined team in the league even though Miami has more points.
In August, Columbus rallied at home and scored three goals in the final 23 minutes to knock Miami out of the Leagues Cup Round-of-16 with a 3-2 victory. Messi was injured and did not play.
Messi also missed their previous match, a league game June 19 in Fort Lauderdale, because he was playing for Argentina in Copa America. Miami won 2-1 with goals by Ian Fray and Leo Campana.
Argentina’s national team will train in South Florida, most likely at the Inter Miami training facility, ahead of the Oct. 10 World Cup qualifier on the road at Venezuela, according to Argentine reporter Gaston Edul of TyC Sports. Messi missed the last two qualifiers in September due to injury. Argentina lost 2-1 to Colombia in a rematch of the Copa America final and beat Chile 3-0. Argentina is in first place in the CONMEBOL South American standings through eight games.
Inter Miami didn’t have a good week. The Herons blew two separate leads in Atlanta and another in The Bronx to earn two points against two struggling teams. They’re only slightly in danger of anything dramatic happening - we’ll get there in a second - but this is Inter Miami. We’re assessing them on a different scale. Anything short of being an all-time great team while they have the all-time great player is going to be seen as coming up short.
As of now, they’re 10 points away from breaking the record for points in a single MLS season (73, set by the 2021 New England Revolution). Breaking that record may not be remembered particularly well if they don’t pair it with an MLS Cup, but let’s take the major milestones one at a time. And let’s take the first big one a game at a time. Here’s who the Herons have to close out the season.
So here’s the thing. If Lionel Messi is playing, it hasn’t really mattered who the opponent is. Inter Miami have lost once in 15 regular season games when Messi plays. The only loss came, inexplicably, against Atlanta. Even hinting at a loss is going against a strong precedent.
That’s the thing though. Inter Miami only get one draw here before they’re out of luck on the points record. If they get two wins and two draws, they’ll be short of tying the record by a point. And Charlotte are a team, like Atlanta and New York City FC, that could sneak up on the Herons and steal a point.
Charlotte had a bad stretch for a bit there, but took full advantage of a get right game against New England over the weekend in a 4-0 win. New DP Pep Biel even got on the board as The Crown looked like they actually wanted to be in the playoffs for the first time in a while.
Everyone should be well aware of how effective they are defensively. In the first meeting of the year between these two, Miami put up just seven shots in what turned into a 2-1 win. That’s extremely typical of this year’s Miami side, but still difficult to maintain. Another game with seven shots could easily turn into a 1-1 or 0-0 draw. The Herons will be favored at home here, but they have to be careful.
The Crew are the Crew. I know we talked about Miami never losing with Messi on the field, but, let’s be real, if there’s any team that’s going to have the juice to hang with them, it’s Columbus. Especially a Columbus side with something extra to play for…
Actually, wait, I want to talk about that more. Let’s hustle through the rest of these.
MLS is weird and dumb things happen all the time. This kind of feels like it could be a game where Toronto steal a point and no one, including Toronto, knows how it happened. But let’s be real here. We know how this goes in 95% of timelines.
Let’s be real here. We know how this goes in 99.99% percent of timelines.
So, yeah, basically it comes down to the next two games for Inter Miami. Four points in both of those games would put some pressure on them, but they’d probably be able to pull it out. Six points and this is a wrap.
But, stay with me here. What if it’s one point? And what if things start to get uncomfortable in ways we haven’t really imagined in a while.
It does seem something close to impossible. But Wilfried Nancy freaking hates that word, and the Crew have made their reputation on outmaneuvering the odds.
So let’s lay it out. Miami have left the window open just enough to consider it.
Columbus are currently eight points behind the Herons. They have five games left while Inter Miami only have four. The highest point total they can reach is 71. The highest point total Inter Miami can reach is 76. The Crew need to close what’s essentially a five-point gap over the next few weeks.
Here’s the thing though…
D.C. are not a great team. The Crew may be a bit spent from their midweek Campeones Cup matchup with Club América, but this is winnable.
Oh, hey, look at this, a home game that could instantly reduce the gap by three points. The Crew won the last one here against Miami and that one had even more on the line.
The Union are one of the hottest teams in the league and the Crew will be coming off yet another midweek game. They might be exhausted and rotated here. It’s going to be tough.
A nice break in between a couple of tough games.
The Red Bulls have been atrocious since the start of June. That coincided with an injury to Emil Forsberg. He’ll be back by this one, but will he be himself?
Fifteen points is a ton to ask for over this stretch. The fixture congestion ramps the difficulty level up even more. But it doesn’t even need to be 15 points. If the Crew beat Miami on their way to 13 points, the Herons would need two wins to claim the Shield. A win and two draws from Miami would put them tied on points and wins with the Crew. At that point, Columbus would likely have the edge on goal differential. Doesn’t sound all that far fetched does it?
Miami are on the verge of history. They’ll either earn the points record, win the Shield, or watch it slip out of their grasp in a way we’ll remember forever. It’s all in play. Odds are this is straightforward in the end. But don’t doubt the Crew and don’t doubt MLS’s ability to drag teams back toward the rest of the pack. This could be fun.
Good luck out there. Here’s a picture of a baby hippo.
⚡️ UNION WIN ⚡️ ft moo deng#DOOP pic.twitter.com/aPgaX54LM8 Advertisement
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After his big comeback vs. Philadelphia, Miami blew leads against both Atlanta and NYCFC, and settled for ties in both matches. Neither Messi nor Luis Suarez scored.
Only three regulars started against Atlanta with Sergio Busquets suspended for yellow card accumulation, but some including Messi came in late. Goals by David Ruiz and Leo Campana, who overtook Gonzalo Higuian as the all-time leading scorer for Inter Miami, were not enough.
Then, against NYCFC, everyone started except Busi, but again Miami struggled. Campana finally scored off the bench in the 75th minute, but Miami gave up a goal off a corner on the final play of the game to settle for a 1-1 tie.
▪ We look at the Supporters’ Shield race and preview the club’s next home game vs. Charlotte on Saturday night.
▪ And we also look at the FIFA Club World Cup as we have an update on that and explain what it might take for Inter Miami to be chosen to compete in the tournament.
Remember, you can watch this show on YouTube and on our site at miamiherald.com. The podcast is available on Spotify, Apple podcasts, and most other platforms where you listen to your pods. Thank you for watching and listening, and enjoy!
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The Hill
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Messi and Inter Miami are aiming to win the Supporters’ Shield this season in MLS. However, two recent draws against Atlanta United and New York City FC have opened the door for reigning champions Columbus Crew to challenge them.
Currently, Wilfried Nancy’s Columbus Crew sits third in the Eastern Conference with 56 points, eight behind Inter Miami. The Crew, however, have a game in hand, which could close the gap to just five points.
After the latest draw, Inter Miami boss Tata Martino exploded in anger after being unhappy with the match officials, saying that “the team didn’t lack anything, but the match lacked a good referee.” While Martino remained on the sidelines, a red card was shown to Tata Martino Jr - the head coach’s son - who is a part of the Inter Miami backroom staff. He will miss the upcoming game against Charlotte.
Final from New York. pic.twitter.com/98G4GyGT5s
While Messi’s team still holds the top spot, with four games remaining, the Crew will host Inter Miami in two weeks in what is set to be a hugely entertaining clash of titans. A win in that game could tighten the race, bringing the Crew within two points of the Supporters’ Shield.
With four games left, Miami are also at risk of falling short of the MLS single-season points record. The ‘Garzas’ currently have 64 points and would need to win three of their final four games to tie the 73-point record set by the New England Revolution in 2021.
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Despite winning the Supporters’ Shield that year, the Revolution were eliminated in the Eastern Conference semifinals by New York City FC, who went on to become the tournament champions.
Miami’s remaining fixtures include playoff contenders Charlotte FC, reigning MLS champions Columbus Crew, and matches against Toronto FC and New England Revolution, the worst team in the Conference.
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