Tuesday is sure to be an emotional night for everyone associated with the Golden State Warriors (8-2, 2-1 home, 8-2 ATS) as Klay Thompson and the Dallas Mavericks (5-5, 1-2 away, 4-5-1 ATS) head to the Bay Area for a 7:10 pm PT/10:10 pm ET tipoff at the Chase Center. Thompson won four NBA championship in his 11 seasons with the Warriors, who drafted him 11th pick in the 2011 NBA draft, scoring over 15,000 points in the process.
I am quickly becoming a believer in what the Warriors have built this season. Offloading the aging Thompson and bringing in the likes of Buddy Hield (18.0 PPG) and De’Anthony Melton (9.6 PPG) has yielded immediate results. Golden State’s Offensive Rating of 119.2 is fourth-best in the league so far and nearly three points better than last season (116.9, 11th).
Golden State’s improvement defensively has been even more pronounced, going from 114.5 (15th) last season to 107.6 (fourth) in the early-going this year. And they have faced some true heavyweights already, posting road wins over the reigning-champion Celtics (118-112 away) and Thunder (127-116).
Depth has suddenly become a strength for the Dubs. Steph Curry is only averaging 22.0 PPG in 28.3 MPG. He missed three games entirely and Golden State went a perfect 3-0 without the four-time All-NBA First Team selection, routing the Pelicans twice (124-106, 104-89) and the Rockets (127-121 OT). Nine different Warriors are averaging at least 7.9 PPG.
The Mavericks, on the other hand, are struggling to find chemistry with all their new faces. They haven’t won back-to-back games this month and are coming off two straight setback to the Suns (114-113 home) and Nuggets (122-120 away).
Thompson has only scored 16 or more points in four of his ten games this season, and none of his last three. But I am expecting a big effort on the part of both Thompson and his teammates to get him involved early and often. It doesn’t hurt that Thompson is intimately familiar with the environs at the Chase Center.
NBA player props from DraftKings on Nov. 12.
Last year’s NBA scoring champion Luka Doncic has a game-high point total of 29.5 O/U. Doncic finished last season averaging a career-best 33.9 PPG. His point production is down considerably in the early going this year, dropping 5.6 points per game to 28.3 PPG in his first ten games. That’s not a huge surprise given Dallas’ efforts to boost its secondary scoring in the offseason, bringing in the likes of Thompson, Naji Marshall, and Spencer Dinwiddie.
Steph Curry, per usual, has the highest total on the Golden State side at 25.5 O/U. Buddy Hield, who’s second on the team in scoring so car at 18.0 PPG, isn’t listed in the props at DraftKings, which only has lines on the projected starters tonight.
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Unfortunately for bettors, there is no real discrepancy in the spread across books. All sportsbooks currently have the line at Golden State -2.5 in Tuesday’s NBA odds. There are small variations in the price. The best odds on the Warriors to cover are -110 at ESPN Bet, BetMGM, and bet365. The best price on the Mavs to cover is -105 at Caesars.
On the moneyline, the longest odds on a Golden State win are found at FanDuel (-142) while ESPN Bet and bet365 have the best moneyline price on Dallas (+125).
There is a half-point range in the total at the moment, with bet365, BetMGM, ESPN Bet, and FanDuel listing it at 234.5 and DraftKings and Caesars at 235.0
Tuesday’s NBA public betting splits show the Warriors getting the vast majority of moneyline handle (87%) but the Mavs getting far more ATS handle (81%). The public is also loving the over, with 84% of money bet on the game total on the over as of 4:02 pm ET.
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