Liga MX Semifinals: Monterrey Favored, But San Luis Poised for Upset?

Although Rayados arrive as favorites in the knockout match against Atlético de San Luis, this Monday, two players from the Monterrey squad acknowledged the risk of underestimating their opponents in this semifinal. This cautious optimism stems from San Luis's recent strong performance, including a narrow victory over Monterrey earlier in the season.

Monterrey's cautious confidence

However, within the 'Pandilla', there is a conscious effort to avoid excessive confidence, despite the fans showing signs of premature triumphalism against a rival that, on paper, appears to be inferior based on the value of their squad. This was emphasized by midfielders Óliver Torres and Jorge Rodríguez after they finished training at El Barrial this week, where they are already practicing tactics for the first leg of the semifinal set for this Wednesday. "It’s going to be difficult like all matches. It won’t be easy; they reached this stage for a reason and have done things well. It will be a tough match as they all are," commented 'Corcho' while attending to fans. Óliver Torres echoed this sentiment, adding, "We’re eager for the semifinal and happy. We’re focused on what’s ahead, which will surely be good... San Luis is a very good team. They defend well and attack well, so it will be hard, and we must give our best." Their caution is understandable, given Monterrey's history of setbacks against San Luis in previous knockout rounds.

Past Encounters and Unfinished Business

Monterrey also has unfinished business against the potosinos, as this will be the third time they face off in a final phase knockout round of the LIGA BBVA MX. In the previous two encounters, the Monterrey side was eliminated; first, they unexpectedly fell in the playoff of the Clausura 2022 and subsequently succumbed in the quarterfinals of the Apertura 2023. Thus, the team from the 'Sultana del Norte' will seek to defeat this rival in decisive stages for the first time and become the first team to reach the grand final of Mexican football.

San Luis's Strong Showing and Potential Upset

It’s worth mentioning that in the regular phase, San Luis narrowly defeated Rayados during the Jornada 11 match of the Apertura 2024, held at the Alfonso Lastras Stadium. This victory showcased San Luis's capabilities and serves as a stark reminder to Monterrey of their opponent's potential. Atletico San Luis's remarkable season, culminating in their semifinal berth, is a testament to their strength and determination. Their impressive defensive performance, spearheaded by goalkeeper Andrés Sánchez, has been a key factor in their success. The team's solid performance in the quarterfinals against Tigres, where they secured a 3-0 aggregate victory, further bolsters their confidence going into the semifinal clash.

Key Players and Tactical Approaches

San Luis's tactical flexibility and the impressive performances of key players like Vitinho and Leo Bonatini, who are capable of creating significant attacking threats, add to their potential to cause an upset. Meanwhile, Monterrey boasts a balanced squad, with experienced players like German Berterame and young talents like Lucas Ocampos contributing significantly to their offensive capabilities. Ocampos's reduced ban, allowing him to feature in the crucial second leg against Pumas, highlights the team's attacking prowess.

Where to Watch the Game

The game between Atlético San Luis and Monterrey will be played on Wednesday, December 4, at Estadio Alfonso Lastras. The game will start at 10:00 p.m. ET / 7:00 p.m. PT. In the United States, the match will be broadcast on several channels, including Univision, FuboTV (which offers a free trial), DirecTV Stream, and TUDN. For those outside the US, a VPN might be necessary to access the streaming services they typically use.

Predicting the Outcome: A Close Contest

While Monterrey enters as the favorite based on their overall squad strength and history, San Luis’s recent form and their upset potential make this a highly unpredictable matchup. Dimers.com's predictive model, based on 10,000 simulations, gives Atletico San Luis a 34.1% chance of winning, Monterrey a 39.2% chance, and a 26.7% chance of a draw. These numbers, along with the expert commentary highlighting the importance of avoiding complacency from Monterrey, and San Luis's tactical prowess, paint a picture of a very closely contested match. The outcome will depend on the performance of both teams on the night, the ability of Monterrey to manage their expectation, and the continued strength of San Luis's defense and surprise factor. The result will likely be a thrilling spectacle for Liga MX fans worldwide. The first leg sets the stage for a truly exciting semi-final clash, with both teams possessing the ability to progress to the final. Ultimately, whether Monterrey’s experience prevails or San Luis's current form continues, it is certain to be a match full of suspense and drama.

The Final Whistle: A Season Defining Match

This Liga MX semifinal clash presents a captivating narrative. It's not just about who is favored; it's about the potential for an upset, the unresolved rivalries from previous encounters, and the sheer talent on display. Both teams have proven their mettle throughout the tournament, setting the stage for a compelling contest that could define their seasons. Whether it ends in a Monterrey victory or a San Luis upset, the fans are guaranteed an electrifying display of skill and determination, a fitting spectacle for the high stakes of this thrilling semifinal encounter. The first leg will undoubtedly set the tone for the rest of the series, potentially leading to a final that few would have predicted at the start of the tournament.