On Saturday, the traditional Wembley Stadium curtain-raiser will, as ever, announce the return of English football. It’s time to get excited about the Premier League again.
First of all, there’s the curse to consider. None of the last five Community Shield winners have gone on to win the Premier League that year.
In fact, only one of the last 13 winners - Man City in 2018/19 - won the league title after winning the Community Shield and since the Premier League’s inception only eight of 32 have achieved that double.
OK, curses aren’t real, and that statistic doesn’t really count for much. Indeed, a lot people would say the Community Shield doesn’t count for much.
Pep Guardiola and Erik ten Hag would disagree - which is why Saturday’s season opener matters.
Five Reasons Why This Game Is More Than Just a Friendly
Speaking in May 2019, after his team had won the Community Shield and EFL Cup already that year, Guardiola wondered aloud why the former doesn’t seem to count in England.
“In Spain, in Germany, where I have been, the Super Cup is an important trophy,” he said. “Always we had the feeling we won two titles this season so far.”
“We know we won that title,” he went on to say. “The Community Shield is a Super Cup in the rest of Europe, in the world. That is what it is.”
Ten Hag likely has the same attitude. He needs to.
His Man Utd tenure has been underwhelming so far. Indeed, it was widely reported that the new part-owners considered terminating his contract this summer.
Winning silverware might be what saved him. That is certainly Ten Hag’s theory.
A third trophy, however small and however disputed, can only strengthen his case moving forward. United, after all, haven’t won the shield since 2016.
Meanwhile Man City haven’t won it for five years, which given the value Guardiola places upon it, is a barren spell he will be desperate to end.
Don’t try to tell either manager this is just a friendly.
There is an opportunity here for Ten Hag’s side to build on their FA Cup final performance and get the new season started with a bang.
Ten Hag has been offered a reprieve, but after finishing eighth in the Premier League last season, he needs to get his team playing coherent and cohesive football.
That starts with an opener against the very best. Man Utd were the better team in the FA Cup final and if they can once again outplay the Premier League champions, they will begin the new campaign in a confident mood.
But a heavy defeat of the sort we know United are capable of, could set them up for another difficult year.
Judging by how the summer has gone so far - Ten Hag has openly criticised his players during pre-season, while injuries have again started to pile up - Man Utd need this match to go well.
Man City aren’t in the most comfortable position, either.
Guardiola has yet to commit his future to the club and his potential departure threatens to loom large over their 2024/25 campaign. Yet this is not the biggest hurdle to success.
Motivation Might Be A Problem
Motivation might be a problem. City, having won the Treble in 2023 and made it a record-breaking four titles in a row in 2024, have no mountains left to climb.
Can they find purpose or, like the manager, will the Man City players be left questioning what exactly is tying them to this project anymore?
We could get an answer, or at least an early indicator, on Saturday. If the champions are outfought by their rivals then Arsenal and Liverpool will start to believe they can end the dynasty.
A lack of summer signings only adds weight to the theory that Man City might be slightly stale this year. Let’s see.
New Faces on Show
There aren’t many debutants on display at Wembley, although each club has one marquee signing ready to play in the first (semi) competitive match.
Joshua Zirkzee’s involvement at UEFA EURO 2024 means he hasn’t featured in United’s pre-season friendlies, suggesting he won’t start on Saturday.
But he can still make an impact off the bench. Zirkzee is a “false nine” - a striker comfortable dropping deep to link play - which is precisely what Ten Hag needs to help compress space between the lines.
Savinho Could Be Key
Just like Zirkzee, Savinho only joined up with his new team-mates on Monday but is hopeful of playing a part in this weekend’s encounter.
Savinho is a dazzling winger whose trickery can give Man City what they’ve lacked since Riyad Mahrez departed the club in 2023.
He is exactly the sort of player, running at tired legs on the big Wembley pitch, who can have an impact off the bench.
If Savinho doesn’t start, his place in the team will probably be taken by 21-year-old Oscar Bobb, who after playing a starring role in pre-season, is finally ready to break into the first XI.
Bobb scored one and assisted two others in a pre-season friendly win against Celtic, before assisting once against AC Milan and scoring in the friendly against Chelsea.
And he will fancy his chances against a Man Utd defence that hasn’t played together this summer due to their various international commitments.
As for United, Jadon Sancho has been the biggest plus from the summer tour.
Brought back into the fold after patching things up with his manager, Sancho has looked sharp in a couple of positions, most notably when operating as a striker.
Sancho could lead the line for Man Utd on Saturday, his appearance symbolic of the fresh start for everyone at United in 2024/25.
But talk of a fresh start, of a reset, is cheap. Man Utd and Ten Hag need to prove it on the pitch.
Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise - the Community Shield is a BIG match.
Team News and Predicted Lineups
Man City
Euro 2024 finalists Rodri, Phil Foden, John Stones and Kyle Walker are not expected to feature. Julian Alvarez is finalising a move to Atletico Madrid and Stefan Ortega should get the nod over Ederson in goal.
Man City (4-2-3-1): Ortega; Lewis, Akanji, Dias, Gvardiol; De Bruyne, Kovacic; Bobb, Silva, Grealish; Haaland
Subs: Doku, Ake, Nunes, Phillips, Savinho, McAtee, Wilson-Esbrand
Man United
Summer signing Joshua Zirkzee could lead the line but fellow new boy Leny Yoro and striker Rasmus Hojlund are injured. Harry Maguire, Victor Lindelof, Luke Shaw and Kobbie Mainoo will be assessed and Tyrell Malacia is unlikely to be risked.
Man Utd (4-2-3-1): Onana; Dalot, Maguire, Martinez, Shaw; Mainoo, Casemiro; Garnacho, Fernandes, Rashford; Zirkzee
Subs: Sancho, Wan-Bissaka, Lindelof, Mount, McTominay, Eriksen, Antony
Key Player Battles
Man City
- Star man: Kevin De Bruyne
- Top scorer: Erling Haaland
- Penalty taker: Erling Haaland
- Card magnet: Mateo Kovacic
- Assist ace: Kevin De Bruyne
- Set-piece aerial threat: Erling Haaland
Man Utd
- Star man: Bruno Fernandes
- Top scorer: Bruno Fernandes
- Penalty taker: Bruno Fernandes
- Card magnet: Luke Shaw
- Assist ace: Bruno Fernandes
- Set-piece aerial threat: Harry Maguire
Betting Tips
Both teams to score There have been goals at both ends in six of the last seven Manchester derbies
Alejandro Garnacho to have over 1.5 shots The United winger had 54 shots in his last 15 Premier League appearances and scored the opener in the FA Cup final victory over City
Manchester United or draw double chance The Citizens have failed to win the Community Shield in each of the last three seasons and Pep Guardiola is unlikely to unleash his strongest 11 at Wembley
Pays out at 9-2 with bet365
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Conclusion: The Community Shield Matters
The Community Shield is more than just a warm-up for the Premier League season. It's a chance for both managers to prove their worth, for new signings to make their mark and for the fans to get a first glimpse of what lies ahead.
So, make sure to tune in on Saturday for what promises to be an exciting and unpredictable encounter.
