Marseille's Bold Gamble: Can De Zerbi's New-Look Squad Challenge PSG for the Ligue 1 Title?

Marseille's opening 5-1 win at Brest suggests the former Brighton manager can reward his board’s bold spending.

Cue the narrative klaxon, there’s a title race on in Ligue 1! Plucky Paris Saint-Germain battled to a valiant win over Le Havre on Friday, despite losing their superstar striker Kylian Mbappé to Real Madrid and his putative replacement, Gonçalo Ramos, to injury. Les Parisiens are now behind Roberto De Zerbi’s all-conquering Olympique de Marseille on goal difference only.

While the truth of the matter doesn’t stretch quite to that extent, after the opening weekend of the season in France, it looks as if OM’s bold transfer plans this summer may pay dividends. In a summer when concerns over broadcasting deals have seen many recent surprise packages (Lille, Lens, Reims) limited in their spending, while other European contenders (Monaco, Lyon) added depth or promising talents rather than marquee players, Marseille have been unstintingly bold, signing eight players who hope to figure in De Zerbi’s first-choice XI.

Leading the way, of course, is the controversial signing of Mason Greenwood, a player whose discontinued court case saw him leave Manchester United, his move to Ligue 1 labelled by the mayor of Marseille as being “against the values of the club and the city”. There’s no question the club are being cautious with Greenwood – he was left out of the team’s trip to Sunderland for a pre-season friendly, with his absence being attributed officially to injury. Even De Zerbi, known for vociferously defending his players, referenced this post-match, saying: “I am happy that he scored. It will calm the controversies that surrounded his arrival.”

Those controversies aren’t likely to disappear. However, there is merit to Marseille’s overall transfer strategy. Of the XI that started the 5-1 win away to Brest – the side who finished third last season – six were not in the squad last season, and three more new arrivals will be fit or back from suspension in the coming weeks.

There, have, of course, been some casualties of this as well. Ismaïla Sarr and Iliman Ndiaye were sent back to England for little net loss after indifferent seasons at the Vélodrome, while the veterans Jonathan Clauss and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang were also sold, despite having had stronger campaigns. De Zerbi has also placed Chancel Mbemba, Jordan Veretout and Samuel Gigot in the proverbial loft, the three training away from the first team.

De Zerbi's Tactical Masterclass

Gigot and Mbemba are hardly world-beaters, but with Clauss’s exit and that of the keeper Pau López, De Zerbi would be starting the season with an almost entirely rejigged defence, retaining only Leo Balerdi and Quentin Merlin as players who had been regulars last season. Balerdi, captain on the night, will likely be partnered with Lilian Brassier, so impressive for Brest last season, and with Merlin playing on the left and Amir Murillo on the right.

In midfield, another loanee, Tottenham’s Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, has arrived and seems set to partner Ismaël Koné, a dynamic young Canadian international signed from Watford, in De Zerbi’s 4-2-3-1, with Geoffrey Kondogbia also an option. The front four, on the evidence of Saturday evening, will be the crown jewel of the team, even if Amine Harit does move on in this window, as is still possible.

Greenwood, playing on the right, scored twice while Luis Henrique, a player who had scored only two goals since joining from Botafogo in 2020, did the same, with Harit adding a pair of assists. Elye Wahi, another promising young attacker who will be motivated to improve upon a disappointing season with Lens (and is still only 21) led the line ably and added a goal of his own. With Faris Moumbagna and the much-hyped Inter loanee, Valentín Carboni, also in the squad, there is no shortage of attacking depth.

Financial Prudence and Title Hopes

Keeping in mind the outsized power of the DNCG, France’s famous footballing financial watchdog, all of this reconfiguration was accomplished with a minimal net spend, projected to be in the region of €10m. The sales of Veretout, Harit and Mbemba could further balance the books over the coming fortnight.

With no European football with which to contend – Marseille were stretched dearly by last season’s run to the Europa League semi-finals – this team do indeed have the potential makings oftitle contenders. As riveting as De Zerbi’s side were going forward, they also looked worryingly loose at the back, with the new goalkeeper Gerónimo Rulli making more saves (four) than his counterpart, Marco Bizot.

Brest were irrepressible at times last season going forward but, as displays by PSG and Rennes showed over the weekend, they are far from the only dangerous team in the league – Marseille will absolutely need to see their defence take shape in a more convincing way in the weeks to come. Still, though, it’s a rare moment to see a team in Ligue 1 make wholesale changes and hit the ground running like this.

Given De Zerbi’s achievements with Brighton, it would hardly be an unreasonable expectation to have a closer title race than we’ve observed in the last three seasons, a vindication for this summer’s boldness on the part of the club’s hierarchy.

PSG's Vulnerability and Marseille's Title Ambitions

Part of why there needs to be some credence given to Marseille having a shot at the title will be how PSG’s season unfolds. The injury to Ramos is severe indeed – the Portuguese striker needs surgery and could be out until the new year. Even if Randal Kolo Muani is a capable option in attack, the ability of Luis Enrique to rotate his side will be paramount once the team return to European action. After spending much of the last three windows building a younger, more cohesive side, might the defending champions be forced into buying a big-name player, à la Victor Osimhen or Jadon Sancho, to reinforce their attacking options?

Aside from PSG, Rennes were the other team to turn in a dominant performance at the weekend, beating Lyon 3-0. Steve Mandanda saved a penalty but, with goals from the stalwarts Amine Gouiri and Benjamin Bourigeaud, Rennes sparkled in a match that could have been a difficult one following a long list of departures, playing a solid yet optimistic 4-3-1-2 that morphed into a 3-4-3 in possession with the wing-backs, Alidu Seidu and Lorenz Assignon, getting forward at will. The Bretons will face more canny (and better organised) opponents than Lyon this season but, without European football, Julien Stéphan will have ample opportunity to build continuity from this result.

Finally, a word for Auxerre. Their 2-1 home win over Nice was probably the shock result of the weekend – even with Les Aiglons missing the injured Terem Moffi and others – but the underlying numbers tell a different story. Under Christophe Pélissier, the hosts had more shots on target and weren’t far off from being level in terms of possession. Just as his Amiens sides of the recent past punched above their weight following promotion, Auxerre may be set to do the same.

Marseille's Resurgence Under De Zerbi

Olympique de Marseille endured a torrid 2023/24 Ligue 1 season. An eighth-place finish meant Les Olympiens missed out on European qualification.

Marseille finished a whopping 26 points adrift of the eventual champions, Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) and nine points short of the fourth and final UEFA Champions League qualification spot.

Following the disastrous managerial spell of Gennaro Gattuso, former Ivory Coast head coach, Jean-Louis Gasset took the reins on an interim basis. Gasset’s retirement this summer resulted in the club turning to former Brighton & Hove Albion boss, Roberto De Zerbi, to mastermind a rebirth of the club. Looking at their attacking options for the 2024/25 season, there’s an argument to suggest Les Olympiens have a more potent set of attacking options than the defending champions PSG.

After several weeks of lengthy negotiations, De Zerbi eventually secured the Lens striker, Elye Wahi, on a deal worth up to €30 million. The 21-year-old was the club’s second choice recruit after being priced out of a move for Arsenal’s Eddie Nketiah.

Nevertheless, there’s a lot to like about Wahi. He finished 23/24 with 0.55 xG per 90 minutes, putting him in the league’s top 2% for goalscoring output. Also, he registered 0.63 xG + xA per 90 minutes, putting him in the top 6% for Ligue 1’s best goal contributors.

The controversial signing of Mason Greenwood from Manchester United has further bolstered Marseille’s attack. Greenwood enjoyed a fruitful season-long loan with La Liga side, Getafe, in 2023/24. The 22-year-old finished with a goal contribution every other game, with eight goals and six assists in 33 appearances.

Although Marseille enjoyed a fantastic opening day win over Brest, which saw their Ligue 1 title odds cut to 9.00, the early-season optimism will have been tempered by a serious knee injury to Faris Moumbagna. It leaves them heavily reliant on Wahi and Greenwood. However, if reports are to be believed, a loan move for Everton’s Neal Maupay could be in the offing to provide experienced back-up, making those title odds more appealing again.

It’s fair to say Marseille’s front line has the potential to be just as deadly as PSG’s. The champions could also be without Goncalo Ramos for a period of months after sustaining a serious ankle injury in the season opener.

Presently, PSG can only call upon Randal Kolo Muani at centre forward, with Bradley Barcola a possible makeshift striker. Keeping Kolo Muani fit will be vital, given that he was in Ligue 1’s top 2% of goal contributors per 90 minutes last season. Youngster, Ilyes Housni, is surely too young to be entrusted to lead the line for the Ligue 1 title contenders.

All of this suggests PSG’s current odds of 1.33 to defend their crown could be somewhat thin unless they dip into the transfer market before the end of August.

A New Era for Marseille

France's Ligue 1 is not experiencing it is happiest period this summer with a brewing financial crisis related to the underwhelming domestic and international television rights situation. That follows hot on the heels of Kylian Mbappe's departure from flagship club Paris Saint-Germain to European kings Real Madrid. French professional soccer is struggling for visibility even in some major markets yet it is against this backdrop that one of Europe's most intriguing projects will play out this season.

When Roberto De Zerbi and Brighton and Hove Albion went their separate ways back in May, the expectation was that the Italian tactician was likely destined for a top job. Whether that was in the English Premier League, back in his native Italy's Serie A or with a European giant like Bayern Munich, the queue for his services appeared long. That Olympique de Marseille and Stade Velodrome turned out to be the 45-year-old's destination of choice was surprising to say the least.

OM are coming into the 2024-25 campaign having finished eighth in an 18-team Championnat with no UEFA competition to look forward to this term despite last year's Europa League semifinals run which ended in defeat to eventual winners Atalanta BC. Marseille might be a big fish in what might feel like a shrinking Ligue 1 pond right now but the potential for Les Phoceens to actually compete with an Mbappe-less PSG under De Zerbi is tantalizing.

France's topflight must rebuild with less television money flowing to the clubs while being propped up by a challenged private equity deal and a steady stream of its biggest names leaving with Mbappe following Lionel Messi and Neymar out of the league. Had PSG managed to beat Borussia Dortmund and potentially toppled Real Madrid in last campaign's Champions League, things might have been a little different in terms of optics but this is the hand that Ligue 1 has dealt itself through years of mismanagement.

Equally as surprising as De Zerbi arriving in Marseille then has been how active OM have been this summer transfer window with a revolving door of talent coming in and out of the club for a net spend of just under $10 million. Elye Wahi, Ismael Kone, Geronimo Rulli, Derek Cornelius, Valentin Carboni, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Lilian Brassier, Bamo Meite and Jeffrey de Lange have all come in along with the highly controversial signing of Mason Greenwood from Manchester United.

Meanwhile, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Iliman Ndiaye, Ismaila Sarr, Jonathan Clauss, Pape Gueye and Jordan Amavi have all been allowed to move on with Vitinha and Matteo Guendouzi also making loan moves permanent. There is still time for more movement in and out of Stade Velodrome -- although probably not before the new season gets underway on Saturday away at last year's surprise package Stade Brestois 29 -- but this already has the makings of a De Zerbi group.

“We will be able to be a little more precise regarding our objectives at the end of the transfer window,” the Italian told L'Equipe. “The most important thing is to make every OM supporter proud and happy -- from the owner to the fans. Make them proud of the players and their coach. We must see a united team right away with brains but also soul. We are working on that. Expectations are high but we accept that. We have strong players and I am not the type to hide if I do not succeed in my mission.”

De Zerbi's competitive home debut will come in a week or so when Stade de Reims visit the southern giants in the second round of Championnat games. Stade Velodrome has fallen in love with Marcelo Bielsa and his disciples such as Jorge Sampaoli and now it could be the former Brighton and Shakhtar Donetsk man's turn. Either way, for a Ligue 1 product that is struggling for value at present, what could be an explosive marriage between De Zerbi and OM promises to be box office on a weekly basis.

The Key Man: Leo Balerdi

Key man

Time flies, but at Olympique de Marseille it moves even faster. A little over a year ago Leonardo Balerdi was the subject of a hunger strike from a fan demanding the club sell the centre-back. Now, he has been named captain of the team (especially with Valentin Rongier out for the foreseeable future) and he has since signed a new long-term deal with the club.

Marseille are in a constant state of flux with players exiting the gates of La Commanderie almost as soon as they are signed, but this summer has been dramatic even for Les Phocéens. The club is in the midst of a substantial clearout as they reshape the squad for the new manager Roberto De Zerbi. This has led to Samuel Gigot and Chancel Mbemba being asked to find new clubs leaving Balerdi as one of the only senior figures left in the backline.

At 25 he’s seen as someone young and flexible enough to be capable of executing De Zerbi’s brand of football that places a heavy emphasis on building out from the back. In the preseason friendlies, Balerdi has acted as the first port of call for Rubén Blanco’s passes and he has become one of the key elements helping to progress the ball forward as well as baiting the opposition press.

The Signing to Watch: Valentín Carboni

Signing to watch

Marseille are once again returning to Inter Milan for an Argentine creative midfielder. However, Valentín Carboni will hope his time in the south of France fairs far better than his compatriot and former teammate Joaquín Correa. Carboni has the exact profile that Marseille are looking for with their new project under De Zerbi, and there is hope that he will be the player to act as the creative force that can knit the midfield with the forward line.

In an interview with Get French Football News, former Marseille star and England international Chris Waddle explained that De Zerbi has “got to have his player… who can do something different.” Marseille may have found that player in Carboni. However, it should be noted that the Copa América winner will have to adjust quickly to the pressure cooker environment in Marseille as he will be in direct competition for the role with Amine Harit. A player who looks perfectly situated to flourish under a manager like De Zerbi.

Squad Analysis: Strengths and Weaknesses

Squad analysis

Marseille remain a work in progress and the squad will likely undergo multiple facelifts before transfer deadline day. The defence, however, looks the most settled aspect of the team. De Zerbi has gone with a back four, the departure of Jonathan Clauss means that there are only two recognised right-backs in the first team, Michael Amir Murillo and Pol Lirola, who will likely both be understudies to Bamo Meïté who has been converted from his more familiar role as a centre-back.

This makes sense as De Zerbi has picked a 4-2-3-1 in every friendly (that changes into a 3-2-4-1 when in possession) and Meïté’s role is to sit beside Balerdi and Lilian Brassier when Marseille are attacking, while his capable one-on-one defending makes him suitable for playing wide when the team don’t have the ball. Quentin Merlin on the left of the four has been provided a freer role and asked to roam around the midfield either taking up advanced positions or allowing one of the midfield duo to push forward.

The attack was a significant issue last season and partly why the club failed to secure European football. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang had been the one saving grace and the player that the club appeared most desperate to keep for another season. However, he has since left for Saudi Arabia and revealed a gaping hole in the forward line. There is quality in the team with Luis Henrique, Amine Harit, and Mason Greenwood, but they will all have to step up if Marseille hope to return to their place among Europe’s elite.

De Zerbi's Impact: A New Era for Marseille

The Manager

Last season was turbulent even for Marseille. Four managers took charge of games in a campaign that was marked by serious infighting – with disgruntled fans annoyed at the team’s direction and a behind-the-scenes civil war between club executives settled only by the intervention of the owner backing president Pablo Longoria. Marseille won only five games away from home across all competitions as they recorded an eighth-place finish (their worst league position since 2015/16). And yet, there is hope.

There is a positive feeling about the club and much of that has to do with the appointment of Roberto De Zerbi. The ex-Brighton manager was widely earmarked for a role at one of Europe’s elite but instead, he has decided to try and awaken the sleeping giant in the south of France. His presence is nothing short of a coup, especially with Marseille’s squad in the state that it is in. De Zerbi promises change, and while this has been heard before, there is the sense that a long-term project is beginning to be built.

Marseille dream of toppling Paris Saint-Germain, and while that appears unlikely considering the state of construction the team are in, De Zerbi has brought romance back to France’s second city, and even from the club friendlies his fingerprint can already be seen on the squad – a miracle already at work considering how lacking in identity the team appeared to be last season.

Verdict: A Promise of Excitement

Verdict

The problem facing Marseille is an age-old one. There is positivity now before the season has begun, but the club have a tendency toward impatience and spectacular self-destruction. The squad is a work in progress despite the calibre of coach at the helm, and there will likely have to be some leniency afforded as a host of new players attempt to settle into a demanding environment. Whether that leniency will be allowed is another question altogether.

Line-up (4-2-3-1): Rulli; Merlin, Brassier, Balerdi, Meïté, Koné, Højbjerg, Luis Henrique, Carboni, Greenwood, Wahi.

This article was taken from the GFFN Ligue 1 Season Guide, which can be downloaded HERE.

GFFN | Nick Hartland