Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills: Will Tyreek Hill's Off-Field Drama Impact TNF?

The NFL heads to South Beach on Thursday as the Miami Dolphins play host to the Buffalo Bills. The game pits two of the best offenses against each other, with Buffalo’s Josh Allen — arguably the top quarterback in the league — taking on signal-caller Tua Tagovailoa, receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and running back De’Von Achane.

Both Buffalo and Miami are 1-0, each coming off tight victories in Week 1.

But while the matchup is intriguing on paper, all eyes remain off the field with the latest on Hill.

Miami-Dade County police detained Miami’s star wide receiver on Sunday over allegations of careless driving and failure to wear a seat belt. Hill was accused of the violations that carry penalties of $179 for careless driving and $129 for failing to wear a seat belt, copies of the tickets showed.

Hill said Wednesday he wanted the police officer involved in his detainment fired from the police force. The Dolphins said on X that they were “saddened by the overly aggressive and violent conduct” directed at their players by the police.

Game Details

Date: Thursday, Sept. 12

Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

How to watch: Stream on Amazon Prime

Greg Rosenstein is the sports editor for NBC News Digital.

Will Hill’s Off-Field Drama Affect the Game?

Hill’s recent off-field drama has drawn plenty of attention in the lead-up to the game. The Dolphins’ star receiver, known for his speed and explosiveness on the field, has been the subject of much scrutiny and speculation after his arrest. It’s unclear if this will affect his performance in the game, and whether his involvement in the game will be more focused on the field or off.

Tua Tagovailoa's Performance

However, it’s safe to say that Miami’s offense will be looking to utilize Hill’s talent, given his established rapport with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa is a talented quarterback with the ability to make plays both inside and outside the pocket. The duo has been a force in the NFL, and will be seeking to build momentum with their first division win of the season.

The Bills' Defense

It’s also worth noting that the Bills' defense will be looking to contain Hill. Buffalo’s defense is a formidable unit, with players like cornerback Tre’Davious White, safety Micah Hyde, and linebacker Matt Milano looking to shut down Miami’s passing game. White is coming off a season where he led the NFL with 15 interceptions and is expected to be a key factor in the Bills’ plan to contain Hill and his explosive speed. The Bills will need to deploy their best coverage scheme, and will be hoping for a strong performance from White.

Can the Bills Keep Their Winning Streak Against the Dolphins?

This matchup marks a continuation of a heated rivalry between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. The Bills have enjoyed a significant run of success against the Dolphins in recent seasons. The Bills have won 13 of their last 15 matchups, including playoffs.

The Importance of the Division

This game carries significant weight in the AFC East division race. The winner will gain a crucial early advantage in the tight battle for division supremacy. The Bills have been a perennial playoff contender in recent years, while the Dolphins have been striving to find their way back to prominence, and a win against the Bills is the perfect way to kick off their push for the playoffs.

Josh Allen's Role in the Game

The Dolphins' defense will need to be prepared for Buffalo’s quarterback Josh Allen. Allen is a dynamic playmaker, capable of making big plays with both his arm and his legs. Allen will be looking to exploit any weaknesses in Miami’s defense. This is a matchup that could easily turn into a shootout, with both quarterbacks looking to put up big numbers.

Player Props to Watch

Here are a couple of player props to keep an eye on this Thursday night:

• QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins — over 33.5 pass attempts: With questions surrounding the health and status of the Dolphins’ backfield, the offense may look to air it out even more than usual, which is already quite a bit.

• WR Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills — over 50 receiving yards: The last time these two teams matched up — in Miami in Week 18 last season — Shakir exploded for 105 yards on six grabs. Buffalo ran its slot threat in a variety of looks, including several scrapes and rub routes that freed him up for easy yardage.

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Can the Dolphins Finally Conquer the Bills?

The Dolphins will be looking to end their losing streak against the Bills in this Thursday night showdown. While the Bills have the recent edge in the matchup, it's time for the Dolphins to prove themselves. The Dolphins have the talent and the potential to make a statement in this rivalry.

The Dolphins' Offensive Weapons

With the combination of Hill, Waddle, and Achane, the Dolphins have an explosive offense capable of putting up points against any team. They'll need a balanced attack and will be counting on Tagovailoa to play at a high level. The Dolphins also have the home-field advantage, which could provide a significant boost in this clash.

The Bills' Strengths

On the other side, the Bills have a potent offense, spearheaded by the dynamic Allen. Allen’s ability to make plays both through the air and on the ground makes him a nightmare for defenses. The Bills also have a strong defense, capable of shutting down opposing offenses. The Bills have a lot of firepower on both sides of the ball.

The Verdict

It’s hard to ignore the Bills’ recent success against the Dolphins, but this is a game that could easily go either way. The Dolphins are a team that has been trending upward, and they are capable of upsetting the Bills on their home field. It’s going to be a highly contested game that fans won’t want to miss.

Prediction

The Dolphins are a talented team that can go toe-to-toe with any team in the league, especially on their home field. This is a matchup that could easily go either way, and the Dolphins have a real chance to get their first win against the Bills since 2021.

AFC East action gets started early in Week 2, with the Bills and Dolphins both vying for an early lead in the race for the divisional crown after both coming away with victories to start their 2024 campaigns.

The Bills began the year hot on offense, surprising many who anticipated a drop-off in effectiveness in 2024 due to a shakeup with Josh Allen’s weapons. The departure of wide receiver Stefon Diggs sent ripples throughout the franchise and left this receiving corps a bit shallow. However, those worries were alleviated this past week, after a stellar outing that netted the third-highest EPA per play of the week — albeit against a middling Cardinals defense. While no one in particular erupted for a monster game, the entire unit pulled together and never let up.

Buffalo's defense has some new faces playing key roles, including safety Damar Hamlin, who will face a more difficult test in this matchup as opposed to the Cardinals this past week. Mike McDaniel’s scheme in Miami features a ton of shifts and motion (78.9% motion rate in Week 1), which will undoubtedly cause headaches for the Bills' coverage unit.

Despite the Dolphins having one of the more talented rosters in the league, it hasn’t equated to much success against the Bills. Since taking over as the Dolphins' starting quarterback in 2020-21, Tua Tagovailoa has a 1-6 record against the division rival. While wins aren’t a quarterback stat, and roster turnover varies year to year, the Dolphins' high-priced passer has exceeded a 70.0 PFF passing grade just once against Buffalo over that span.

However, Tagovailoa still knows how to press the ball downfield and put defensive communication to the test on the backend. Against the Jaguars in Week 1, Tua amassed four big-time throws, double that of any other passer on the week, including this strike to Tyreek Hill:

TYREEK HILL JUST WANTS TO GO FAST pic.twitter.com/GcPudFd4OB

— PFF (@PFF) September 8, 2024

With questions surrounding the health and status of the Dolphins’ backfield due to injuries to Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, Miami's offense may look to air it out even more than usual, which is already quite a bit.

In Week 1, Tagovailoa saw 44 dropbacks, leading to 37 passing attempts, his fourth instance of eclipsing this mark in his past five games. The Dolphins' high-priced passer averages just a hair over that total dating back to the start of 2023. While Tagovailoa may not have surpassed this line the last time these teams met, he did record 35 attempts in their matchup early in the year, as Miami found itself down multiple scores early.

What makes this line more alluring is that the Bills surprised many in Week 1 with a potent offensive showing, taking a third-place finish in offensive EPA per play on the week. Comparatively, the Jaguars produced the 21st-best mark in the same category, to which Miami needed a last-second field goal to overcome.

If the Dolphins want to buck the trend of playing little brother to the Bills, it will take a great showing from Tua and the passing game.

PFF Greenline and I disagree on this line, but the potential plus-plus matchup that Shakir faces this week is too good to pass up. This 50-yard alternate receiving line is courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

In the back half of 2023, the Bills' offense started leaning more on Shakir. The last time these two teams matched up — in Miami in Week 18 last season — Shakir exploded for 105 yards on six grabs. Buffalo ran its slot threat in a variety of looks, including several scrapes and rub routes that freed him up for easy yardage.

The big crux of this line is Dolphins slot cornerback Kader Kohou, who struggled in this matchup in 2023 and looks to be a weak link in Miami's secondary after a tough outing in Week 1. The Jaguars picked on Kohou at critical points in the game last week, targeting him six times in coverage for 67 receiving yards on his way to a 33.1 PFF coverage grade, the second-lowest coverage grade from a qualifying cornerback in Week 1.