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Miami Hurricanes vs. Virginia Tech Hokies: Matchup Breakdown & Prediction

28 September, 2024 - 4:00AM
Miami Hurricanes vs. Virginia Tech Hokies: Matchup Breakdown & Prediction
Credit: sportskeeda.com

The No. 7 Miami Hurricanes will start ACC play tonight with a Friday night game against Virginia Tech at Hard Rock Stadium.

Kickoff for the game is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. EST and it will be televised on ESPN.

According to the latest betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook, Miami is a 17.5 point favorite. That number is down from the 20 point line UM was favored by earlier in the week.

After taking a year off due to poor scheduling from the ACC, the Miami-Virginia Tech series is back on after the two programs played each other from 1992-2022, dating back to win they were each in the Big East Conference.

Miami owns the all-time series record, 25-15, with the Hurricanes winning three straight. The last win by Virginia Tech in the series was in 2019, a 42-35 win for the Hokies at Hard Rock Stadium.

UM has won five of the last six meetings between the two.

The Hurricanes enter Friday night's game 4-0 after dominating Florida, FAMU, Ball State, and South Florida as they cruised to comfortable wins. Miami is averaging 52 points per game on offense while the defense is limiting opponents to only 11 points per game.

Virginia Tech (2-2) is also opening ACC play tonight and the Hokies will look to get back on track after suffering non-conference losses to Vanderbilt and Rutgers in the first month of the season.

The Hokies have averaged 29.5 points per game on offense while the defense is allowing 22.8 points per game.

Brent Pry is in his third year of leading the Virginia Tech program, posting a 12-16 overall record and a 6-9 ACC record.

In recent years, Miami has had issues with earning a victory in the first ACC game on the schedule. The Hurricanes have lost three straight ACC play openers (2023 Georgia Tech, 2022 North Carolina, and 2021 Virginia). All of those games were played at Hard Rock Stadium.

How does this UM team match up against Virginia Tech?

Read on for our match-up breakdown and prediction.

Miami Offense vs Virginia Tech Defense

The Miami Hurricanes passing attack is in the discussion of being one of the best in the country this season, averaging 405 yards per game through the air while totaling 15 passing touchdowns through four games.

Cam Ward has been the most productive quarterback in the country, throwing for 1,439 yards and 14 touchdowns and two interceptions while completing 72.4 percent of his attempts and averaging an impressive 11.7 yards per attempt.

Ward's top target on the year has been slot receiver Xavier Restrepo, who has caught 20 passes for 362 yards and five touchdowns. Isaiah Horton has stepped up this year and caught 19 passes for 278 yards and one touchdown and he is now coming off his first 100-yard game of his career. Sam Brown (173 yards, 1 touchdown) and Jacolby George (172 yards, 2 touchdowns)

The tight end position is also a factor in the passing game, with Elijah Arroyo catching nine passes for 184 yards and two touchdowns. True freshman Elija Lofton is making the most of his opportunities, catching seven passes for 109 yards and one touchdown. Riley Williams has caught three passes for 55 yards and Cam McCormick has caught two passes for 18 yards and a touchdown.

Miami's pass protection has earned a 79.6 grade from Pro Football Focus this season, which ranks 25th in the country, while allowing 0.75 sacks per game.

Virginia Tech's pass defense is allowing 160 yards per game, which ranks 28th best in the country. The Hokies have a potent pass rush that is averaging 3.25 sacks per game.

Defensive end Antwuan Powell (6-3, 255) leads Virginia Tech with six sacks and 15 quarterback pressures. Powell led the Hokies in 2023 with 9.5 sacks and 48 pressures. Duke transfer Aeneas Peebles leads the pass rush from the interior with nine pressures and one sack.

Virginia Tech's starting cornerback duo of Dorian Strong and Mansoor Delane is talented with each player projecting as NFL Draft picks. Both corners are 6-feet-1 and excel in man coverage. Delane has picked off two passes this season.

PFF grades Virginia Tech's pass rush as the No. 16 best in the country while their coverage grade ranks No. 69 overall.

Edge: Miami. This is a strength against strength situation, but to this point the Hurricanes passing operation has been one of the best in the country.

The Hurricanes have passed the ball to score points early in games and then run the ball late to kill the game off and put teams away.

Miami is averaging 200 yards on the ground per game, which ranks No. 32 overall in the country. UM is averaging 6.11 yards per carry, which ranks 17th best nationally.

The running back room is deep this season for Miami. True freshman Jordan Lyle leads the Hurricanes with 233 rushing yards and three touchdowns this season. Veteran transfer Damien Martinez has run for 190 yards and four touchdowns on the season. Ajay Allen has rushed for 143 yards and one touchdown while Mark Fletcher has generated 120 yards and three touchdowns.

According to Pro Football Focus, Miami's run blocking grades out at a 66.7, which ranks No. 47 overall in the country. UM is allowing only 2.75 tackles for loss per game, which ranks seventh best in the country.

Virginia Tech's run defense has been poor this season, allowing an average of 181 yards per game on the ground along with eight touchdowns at 4.39 yards per carry. The Hokies have averaged 6.3 tackles for loss, which ranks 49th in the country.

Safety Mose Phillips leads Virginia Tech with 29 tackles while middle linebacker Sam Brumfield has totaled 23 tackles and outside linebacker Caleb Woodson has totaled 21 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss.

PFF grades Virginia Tech as the No. 90 run defense in the country and the No. 28 tackling team nationally.

Edge: Miami. The Hokies have been poor on run defense through the first four games.

Virginia Tech Offense vs Miami Defense

Virginia Tech is averaging 191 yards per game through the air. Quarterback Kyron Drones has thrown for 765 yards and four touchdowns while completing 59.8 percent of his passes along with three interceptions.

Drones' top target on the season has been slot receiver Jaylin Lane, who has totaled 247 yards and one touchdown on 17 receptions. Last year's top target, Da'Quan Felton, who had over 600 receiving yards, stands 6-feet-5 and 215 pounds, has caught ten passes for 74 yards and one touchdown.

Virginia Tech's pass protection ranks as the No. 61 overall bunch in the country, according to PFF, with the Hokies allowing 2.50 sacks per game.

Miami is led by a potent pass rush that allows for the secondary to cover aggressively for a short amount of time. UM is averaging four sacks per game, which is the best in the country and according to Pro Football Focus, the Hurricanes can claim the 14th best pass rush in the country to this point.

Defensive end Tyler Baron leads the Hurricanes with 4.5 sacks and 12 pressures. Defensive tackle Simeon Barrow has generated ten pressures and 2.5 sacks from the interior while Elijah Alston has totaled seven pressures and 2.5 sacks. The Hurricanes are hoping to get their best defensive lineman back into the fold this week with Rueben Bain potentially working his way back.

The UM secondary has done a nice job of not allowing explosive plays by playing on the same page and executing at a high level. The Hurricanes have allowed only seven passing plays of at least 20 yards, which ranks 28th in the country. UM is allowing 168 yards per game through the air, which ranks 35th nationally. Miami is 12th in the country in pass efficiency defense.

Safety Mishael Powell has two interceptions on the season while Jaden Harris has also added a pick. Amongst the cornerbacks, Jadais Richard has been targeted the most and he has allowed nine receptions for 104 yards. True freshman OJ Frederique and transfer Dyoni Hill have stepped up in recent weeks and done a solid job.

PFF grades Miami's coverage as the fifth best in the country.

Edge: Miami. The Hokies are inconsistent in the pass phase and not explosive. UM's pass rush is good enough to overwhelm the Hokies up front.

The Hokies average 188 yards per game on the ground.

At 5-feet-11 and 210 pounds, Bhayshul Tuten leads the rushing attack with 391 yards and seven touchdowns. Tuten is a physical runner who is averaging 4.45 yards per carry after contact. Tuten has run for at least 115 yards in three of the four games this season.

Virginia Tech quarterback Kyron Drones also plays a key role in the rushing attack, totaling 209 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Drones has converted 15 first downs on the season as a runner, which is second most in the ACC amongst quarterbacks.

The Hokies have allowed 7.25 tackles for loss per game, which ranks No. 118 overall in the country. Pro Football Focus grades Virginia Tech's run blocking as the No. 104 bunch in the country.

Miami's run defense has been excellent this season, limiting teams to 64.8 yards per game on the ground and 2.47 yards per carry. PFF grades Miami with the seventh best run defense in the country and the fifth best tackling grade nationally.

UM is averaging 8.5 tackles for loss per game, which ranks eighth best.

Middle linebacker Kiko Mauigoa leads the Hurricanes with 28 tackles on the season while adding 3.5 tackles for loss. Tyler Baron leads the team with 7.5 tackles for loss. The Hurricanes have done an excellent job of swarming to the football all season long.

Edge: Miami. The run game is the strength of what Virginia Tech does, but the Hurricanes have been excellent in this phase.

Special Teams

Miami has a strong group of specialists in kicker Andy Borregales (5-of-6 field goals) and punter Dylan Joyce, who is averaging 46.3 yards per attempt. In the return game, Chris Johnson is averaging 27 yards per kick return. Ray Ray Joseph is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt.

Virginia Tech kicker John Love has converted 6-of-7 field goal attempts this year while punter Peter Moore is averaging 44.1 yards per attempt. Jaylin Lane has returned a punt for a touchdown while Bhayshul Tuten is averaging 23.7 yards per kick return this season. He returned two kicks for touchdowns in 2023.

Edge: Virginia Tech. The Hokies have more juice in the return game compared to the Hurricanes.

Coaching Matchup: Brent Pry vs. Shannon Dawson

This is going to be an interesting match-up to watch during the day.

The strength of Virginia Tech's defense is the pass defense. Will the Hokies perform well enough to limit a Miami Hurricanes passing attack that is clicking at a high level? If Virginia Tech gives UM's passing operation resistance, will the Hurricanes be able to have success running the ball against a VT run defense that has struggled this year?

UM offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson has been able to find answers in every game leading up to this point. Virginia Tech's defense will test the Hurricanes to a different level because of their pass rushing punch and cover corners.

Can the Hurricanes start fast against Virginia Tech? The first 20 minutes or so of this game should be telling as to how the game flow is going to look.

Miami quarterback Cam Ward has been excellent at the start of this 2024 season.

Can he continue to produce at a high level against the best pass defense operation he will have seen to this point? This will be an interesting question to answer during the course of the game.

Will the pass protection hold up against the best edge rushing team Miami has seen to this point? How will Ward handle that pressure? Will he protect the football when he is pressured? Will Miami's receivers be able to get open against Virginia Tech's man coverage?

Ward has been phenomenal through the first four games. This is another test, however. The Hurricanes will need Ward to continue to produce at a high level.

Prediction

Here are the score predictions from the staff at InsideTheU…

Christopher Stock: Miami 44, Virginia Tech 16

"The Cam Ward show should continue to roll even though Virginia Tech ranks second in the ACC in pass defense and the Hurricanes' defense should be able to make Kyron Drones uncomfortable with their defensive line. Ward has gotten off to an excellent start with four straight 300-yard games and at least three touchdowns in each game while completing 72 percent of his passes on the season. He is playing with a great understanding of where to distribute the ball and his receivers have been very difficult to contain. If the Hokies want to drop their safeties to prevent big plays in the passing game and force Miami to throw shorter passes or lean on their running game, the Hurricanes should still be able to find success." 

David Lake: Miami 38, Virginia Tech 24

"This will be Miami's toughest test to this point in the season. The Virginia Tech offense features the best running back the Hurricanes will have faced thus far and the Hokies pass rush and secondary will provide the toughest test for Miami compared to the first four teams on the schedule. Expect Virginia Tech's pass defense to give the Hurricanes' passing operation more resistance compared to the first four games on the schedule. Overall, Miami wins this game and establishes early momentum in this ACC schedule."

Gaby Urrutia: Miami 34, Virginia Tech 17

"The rest of the way, it's just about Miami handling business. That's what I think will happen on Friday night. Kyron Drones is struggling to get going early in games, which has stalled the Hokie offense. If that continues, this one could get put away quickly. I trust Miami in all areas of the game to get it done. I don't know if Miami covers the 20 points (that's a lot for a conference game) but I think they walk away with a big win."

Luke Chaney: Miami 45, VA Tech 23

"Virginia Tech's defense isn't elite, but The Hokies' cornerback pairing of Mansoor Delane and Dorian Strong should provide a solid test for Miami's nationally second-ranked passing offense. Like South Florida did last weekend, I think Virginia Tech should keep this first half close, but the Hurricanes' offensive explosiveness should cause them to break away in the second half once again."

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Nneka Okoro
Nneka Okoro

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