Virginia Tech is 5-8 over its last 13 matchups against Miami, but more than half of those Hokies victories came on the road as they return to Miami's Hard Rock Stadium to take on No. 7 Miami (4-0) on Friday night. Virginia Tech (2-2) has won two of the last five meetings at Miami in this ACC contest entering the Week 5 college football schedule. Can Miami put together a dominant showing on its home field for Virginia Tech vs. Miami in the 2024 college football season, or will Virginia Tech yet again prove to not be intimidated by playing in an NFL stadium and exit with an upset victory?
Miami vs. Virginia Tech will kick off from Hard Rock Stadium on Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Hurricanes are 17.5-point favorites in the latest Virginia Tech vs. Miami odds, according to the SportsLine consensus, with an over/under at 54. This will be the first time all season Virginia Tech will be an underdog, so how should that affect any Miami vs. Virginia Tech bets? Before making any Virginia Tech vs. Miami picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is also coming off a profitable 13-9 season on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.
The model has set its sights on Virginia Tech vs. Miami. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines for the spread, money line and over/under for the game:
The Hurricanes have scored at least 50 points in three straight games and are coming off a 50-15 victory over South Florida in a game they were favored by 16.5 points. They are also allowing just eight points per game over that span. The Hurricanes opened the season as 2.5-point favorites on the road against Florida before a 41-17 victory where they outgained the Gators, 529-261. Miami ranks ninth in scoring defense, allowing 10.7 points per game, while allowing the 10th-fewest yards per play (3.9) in college football.
Cam Ward has become an immediate household name among college football fans as the Washington State transfer enters the Week 5 college football season with the lowest odds of winning the Heisman Trophy. Ward has passed for at least 300 yards in all four games while completing 72.4% of passes for 1,439 yards and 14 touchdowns with two interceptions. He's thrown for the second-most yards in college football with the most passing touchdowns to lead the No. 2 scoring offense. Miami is 3-1 ATS this season and with how dominant Ward has been this season, a victory by at least 20 points seems achievable against any team in the country. See which team to pick here.
Virginia Tech is 1-1 on the road this season and covered the spread in its last road contest in a 37-17 win at Old Dominion on Sept. 14. The Hokies outscored Old Dominion, 23-7, in the second half, including 17-7 in the fourth quarter. Virginia Tech had a chance to pull off a comeback victory last week after scoring the first 14 points in the fourth quarter but a 24-yard field goal by Rutgers with 1:56 left in the fourth quarter with the score tied at 23 proved to be the difference maker. Virginia Tech has outscored its opponents in the fourth quarter in all four games this season, the Hokies just need a quicker start to match their finishing totals.
Senior running back Bhayshul Tuten has averaged at least five yards a carry in all four of his college seasons and he enters Friday averaging 5.8 yards per rush with 391 rushing yards and seven touchdowns over four games. He has nearly matched his scoring total from his first season with Virginia Tech last season when he had 10 touchdowns following rushing for 13 scores at North Carolina A&T, an FCS program, the year before. Miami can score in a hurry, so Virginia Tech's best strategy may be keeping them off the field as much as possible. See which team to pick here.
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 61 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.So who wins Miami vs. Virginia Tech, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Virginia Tech vs. Miami spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $2,000 on its FBS college football picks since its inception, and find out.
Miami Offense vs Virginia Tech Defense
Miami's offense is led by the Heisman front-runner Cam Ward, who leads the entire nation in passing touchdowns.
This Miami offense is good, really good, and they lead in most offensive EPA stats. The 'Canes are first in EPA Margin, first in EPA/Dropback, and second in net points per drive. On the defensive side for Miami there are some small weaknesses, I don't think the offense suffers from the same issue.
The insane domination of stats continues on the surface level too, not just EPA. The Hurricanes average fifty-one points per game (#2 in country), 623.7 yards per game (#2 in country), 0.75 points per play (#4 in country), 9.2 yards per play (#1 in country), 63.33% third down conversion rate (#2 in country), and 100.00% fourth down conversion rate (#1 in country).
Teams have not really passed the ball against Virginia Tech because of how easily teams have been able to run the ball, and Virginia Tech has gotten to the quarterback quite often.
The running game for Miami is speaheaded by Oregon State transfer Damien Martinez, but one guy to keep an eye on is true freshman Jordan Lyle. Lyle had a 91-yard touchdown run last weekend vs South Florida and is an explosvie player.
Miami has one of the best offensive lines in the ACC and will present a challenge for guys like Antwaun Powell-Ryland and the rest of the defensive line. Right tackle Francis Mauigoa is the standout of the bunch.
Can Virginia Tech hold down the Miami offense? The Hurricanes have been one of the best offenses in the country to start the season and Virginia Tech has not been great on that side of the ball, despite their talent. Miami is explosive in the passing game, so Dorian Strong and Mansoor Delane will have to have a solid game tonight.
Virginia Tech Offense vs Miami Defense
The Virginia Tech offense has struggled to throw the football all season, but this game could be where that changes.
The Hokies run the ball in over 57 percent of their plays on offense, the second most frequent runner in the ACC behind Boston College. Bhayshul Tuten has lead the way with 67 carries, followed by Kyron Drones and Malachi Thomas with 52 and 16 carries, respectively.
Towards the start of the season, Bhayshul Tuten was used sparingly due to fatigue from being the kick returner, but now he is the focal point of the offense, and he's gotten better every week. He went from 3.8 yards per carry to 5.5 yards per carry to 8.1 yards per carry against Rutgers, a game where he scored three touchdowns.
Kyron Drones has been well below his standards this year, as he's already thrown three interceptions, which is equal to the amount of interceptions he threw in the 2023 season. He's been hawked down on in the pocket, and teams are starting to shut him down in the passing game. There's still room for him to improve though, but the blame is not all on Drones.
To say that this a good matchup for the Miami defense is an understatement.
Miami has been a top-ten team in the nation against the rush, due to their front seven which is probably one of the best in the country. The Hurricanes have only allowed 2.6 yards per carry and 69 yards per game.
Tyler Baron has four and a half sacks, Simeon Barrow and Elijah Alston has two and a half sacks, and five other players on the Hurricanes' roster. This matchup is just a nightmare for Virginia Tech, they've forced eight interceptions over four games and has one of the highest graded defenses in all of the FBS.
Miami really has no weaknesses on defense, besides some occasional tackling troubles with the linebackers and the secondary. Virginia Tech's big way to win in this matchup will have to depend on Bhayshul Tuten's performance, there can not be any miscues on the offensive line, and they can not turn the ball over.
The Verdict
On offense, I think the Hokies should be trying to play ball control and play keep away from the Miami offense, The best part of the Virginia Tech offense so far this season has been has been the running game, but Miami has been very good against the run this year. While the Hokies might want to run the ball, Kyron Drones is going to have to be able to make plays through the air at some point tonight. He has had a disappointing season up to this point, but he will be a key player tonight.
You can never say never in college football, but there has not been anything from Virginia Tech to suggest they are ready to beat a team like Miami. Even in their wins, the Hokies have had a lot of stretches where they are playing subpar football. The Hurricanes seem to be playing really well right now and on a mission to prove their doubters wrong. Anything can happen, but I like Miami to win big here tonight.
Final Score: Miami 42, VT 20
RJ Schafer joined the On SI team in 2024, contributing to the coverage of Major League Baseball, Collegiate Basketball, and Collegiate Football at https://www.si.com/college/virginiatech/. Prior to this, RJ built a strong portfolio covering Georgia Tech and the Tigers for the Bleav Network. With a solid background in sports journalism, RJ has conducted interviews with both collegiate and professional athletes, enhancing the depth and authenticity of his reporting.
RJ's extensive experience in the sports industry has equipped him with a keen understanding of the dynamics and intricacies of both collegiate and professional sports. His work is focused on providing insightful analysis and comprehensive coverage, making him a trusted voice in the sports community.
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