MLS Matchday 33: Messi's Return Sparks Big Night of Playoffs Implications

As Decision Day inches closer, Matchday 33 features a full slate on Wednesday evening. Several Southeast showdowns with major Audi MLS Cup Playoffs implications and a potential high-scoring Western Conference tilt highlight the action.

What rust? Lionel Messi made his first Inter Miami CF appearance since June 1, bagging a first-half brace, with goals coming less than four minutes apart, and assisting on a Luis Suárez goal in a 3-1 win over the Philadelphia Union. The GOAT now has 28 goal contributions (14g/14a) on the season and could make the races for the Golden Boot presented by Audi and Landon Donovan MLS MVP very interesting.

The Herons have a seven-point lead as they chase the first Supporters' Shield title in club history. Atlanta United, led by DP midfielder Alexey Miranchuk, are hoping to push above the playoff line in a crowded Eastern Conference table.

This is the definition of a six-pointer in the turbulent Eastern Conference playoff race between two teams seemingly going in opposite directions. Orlando City SC have been hotter than a July afternoon on Church Street, earning 22 points over their last 10 MLS games. The Lions are pushing for a top-four spot in the East and the coveted home playoff match that comes with it.

Charlotte FC have been in contention for that fourth spot for a while, but Dean Smith's side has been spinning their wheels. The Crown have won just once in their last eight MLS matches and dropped to seventh in the East. There's nothing like a midweek trip to Inter&Co Stadium for Tim Ream and company to turn things around.

This has true MLS After Dark vibes with two of Major League Soccer's most prolific scoring squads meeting at Providence Park. Outside of Inter Miami, no one has scored more goals than the LA Galaxy (57) and Portland Timbers (56) this season. Expect fireworks.

Furthering that point, both teams have diverse attacks, with Felipe Mora (13g/5a), Jonathan Rodríguez (13g/6a), Evander (12g/17a) and Santiago Moreno (6g/11a) combining for 44 goals for the Timbers, eighth in the Western Conference standings.

The first-place Galaxy, fresh off an El Tráfico triumph over LAFC, are guided by Dejan Joveljic (14g/5a), Gabriel Pec (11g/10a), Riqui Puig (10g/13a) and Joseph Paintsil (8g/9a), who have scored 43 of the Galaxy's goals.

It’s a busy Wednesday night. There’s a full slate of games for you as we close in on the end of the regular season. After tonight, almost every team will have five games or fewer to go. Here’s what to keep an eye on.

Two marquee games in the West lead the way

The West has the two best matchups of the night. Houston host Vancouver at 8:30 pm ET and Portland welcome the Galaxy at 10:30 pm ET.

I’m not sure how much I really need to sell you on these, to be honest. If you’ve been reading The Daily Kickoff, you know Houston and Vancouver are fighting for the final home playoff spots in the West and are leaning on two new DPs to get them there. Houston’s Ezequiel Ponce and Vancouver’s Stuart Armstrong are the keys to contender status for both of these teams.

Meanwhile, you should be well aware Portland and LA score in bunches and sometimes let other teams in on the fun too. The Galaxy have scored more goals than anyone in the West. Portland have scored the second most. Between them, they’ve also allowed 98 goals on the season. It promises to be either a 5-4 goal-fest that lives up to the hype or a 1-0 sleep aid that goes entirely against expectations.

To be honest, the Timbers need this more than the Galaxy. Despite being one of the hottest teams in the league over the last couple of months, they’re all the way down in eighth in the West. They also happen to have maybe the toughest six-game stretch remaining in the league. After this, they’ll take on RSL, Vancouver and Seattle before the season ends. It’s now or never to close the four-point gap between them and the non-Wild Card spots.

Of course, if they do end up in the Wild Card spot and win the play-in game, they’d face the first-place finisher in the West in Round One. That’s very likely going to be the Galaxy. We have a genuine playoff preview here.

The rest of the West has chores to do

While those four teams are out having fun in big games against tough competition, the rest of the West’s playoff teams have to make their bed, empty the dishwasher, vacuum, etc. etc. You get the point. This is a night full of good teams that need to take care of business against not good teams. Only four points separate second place and seventh place in the West. Whoever messes up one of these winnable games tonight will seriously regret it by the end of the season.

To review: Colorado are on the road at SKC, RSL are hosting Dallas, LAFC are at home against Austin and Seattle welcome San Jose. There’s no reason for Colorado, RSL, LAFC or Seattle to drop points here. Colorado are the only team who even have an excuse just by virtue of being on the road. For everyone else, it’s three points or bust against teams whose playoff hopes are either starting to evaporate or have disappeared entirely.

Maybe finally a little bit of clarity in the middle of the East?

It’s a big night for the middle of the pack in the Eastern Conference. The fourth-place Red Bulls are three points ahead of Orlando City and New York City FC, and five points ahead of Charlotte. The Red Bulls have played 29 games though and the rest have played 28. They all play their catchup game tonight and one just so happens to be a bonafide six-pointer between two of the teams in that group.

Orlando host Charlotte tonight in their first real MLS test in a while. In their last meeting against a team above eighth place, they drew 1-1 with NYCFC back on July 20. From there, you have to go back to June 28, against NYCFC again, which was a 4-2 loss. The last time they actually beat a team currently above eighth place came…[checking]......hold on here…….[still checking].........[like in real time, I am actually still checking. It’s not even a bit].......ok, I’ve triple-checked here, and, y’all, none of Orlando’s 11 wins this season have against a team currently higher than eighth place in the standings. That makes their marquee win this year a 2-1 win over eighth-place Toronto FC. They have some things to prove.

The good news for them is Charlotte does too. They’ve looked awful in two games with all three of their DPs in the lineup. The Crown dropped games to both Atlanta and Montréal over the last two games. Now, they’re in real danger of falling into a Wild Card spot and wondering how they went from a potential MLS Cup dark horse to fighting to be a sacrificial lamb for Inter Miami.

Meanwhile, NYCFC have to deal with a Union side that can beat anybody on any given night. A win tonight wouldn’t be quite so impressive though. NYCFC have won just twice in their last 12 games.

Maybe tonight though we got some clear results and a clearer hierarchy in the middle of the standings? It’s at least plausible. The most likely outcome though is things stay just as cluttered as ever.

It’s our second-to-last midweek Watchgridometer of the year. We’re almost to the end. Prepare for the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs accordingly. And remember…

All MLS games are worth watching. Some are worth watching more. The Watchgridometer is here to help you plan your weekend by giving each game a potential watchability score. A 50/50 game has “best game of all time” potential. Games are ranked in order relative to their time slot. We have reached the point in the season where games carry a “playoffocity” score, too. 50/50 means a win or go-home game on Decision Day.

Portland Timbers vs. LA Galaxy

WATCH: Apple TV - MLS Season Pass | Wednesday, 10:30 pm ET Watchability Score: 48/50 Playoffocity Score: 35/50

There are roughly 15 goals in this game. If it’s anything like we expect, it’s going to be an uncut MLS After Dark for 90 minutes. Like, so many goals.

And whoever scores the most will have picked up key points in their respective playoff race. The Galaxy have a short sprint left to claim the top spot in the Western Conference. Portland have a short sprint left to climb over as many teams as possible in the West or be stuck in a Wild Card spot. There’s a decent chance we see this one again in Round One of the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs.

Houston Dynamo FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC

WATCH: Apple TV - MLS Season Pass | Wednesday, 8:30 pm ET Watchability Score: 39/50 Playoffocity Score: 40/50

This is one of the most enjoyable and consequential games of the night. Houston and Vancouver are separated by a point in the standings and both have aspirations of finishing in a home playoff spot. They’re both within three points of third place. And both are turning to new DPs to help carry them down the stretch. Houston’s Ezequiel Ponce and Vancouver’s Stuart Armstrong will play huge roles tomorrow and over the next few weeks.

New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union

WATCH: Apple TV - MLS Season Pass | Wednesday, 7:30 pm ET Watchability Score: 38/50 Playoffocity Score: 39/50

This is a fun one between teams in two different playoff races. NYCFC are trying to get their life together enough to finally make a push for the last home playoff spot in the East. Philadelphia are trying to ride an impressive run of form back above the playoff line. That won’t be easy against a good NYCFC side, but, then again, NYCFC haven’t exactly been on a heater lately. This could go so many directions.

Atlanta United vs. Inter Miami CF

WATCH: Apple TV - MLS Season Pass | Wednesday, 7:30 pm ET Watchability Score: 31/50 Playoffocity Score: 20/50

Last time these two met, Atlanta boat-raced Lionel Messi and Inter Miami in a 3-1 win in Fort Lauderdale. Atlanta immediately went out the next game and got whomped by Charlotte so badly they dismissed head coach Gonzalo Pineda. Which Atlanta are we going to get this time? Based on the last two games they’ve played, there’s no way to tell.

Orlando City SC vs. Charlotte FC

WATCH: Apple TV - Free, FS1 | Wednesday, 8:15 pm ET Watchability Score: 36/50 Playoffocity Score: 40/50

I don’t know how enjoyable this game will actually be, but it is one of the most critical games of the night. Orlando and Charlotte are both in contention for the final home playoff spot in the East. There are only two points between them in the standings. This has stakes.

But it’s also a litmus test. Charlotte have looked bad over their last two matches with all three of their DPs on the field, while Orlando have looked outstanding over the last 10 games while playing against subpar competition. Both have plenty to prove.

Minnesota United FC vs. FC Cincinnati

WATCH: Apple TV - MLS Season Pass | Wednesday, 8:30 pm ET Watchability Score: 30/50 Playoffocity Score: 33/50

This is a really curious one for Minnesota. We still don’t quite know what they are with two new DPs in the mix. They’re at home here, though, against a Cincy team coming off an emotional weekend game. The Loons aren’t too worried about finishing above the line at this point and can just focus on trying to catch up to the middle of the pack. This could get weird and kind of fun?

Toronto FC vs. Columbus Crew

WATCH: Apple TV - MLS Season Pass | Wednesday, 7:30 pm ET Watchability Score: 28/50 Playoffocity Score: 33/50

After Saturday’s draw with Cincinnati, the Crew are going to have to work overtime to earn second place in the East. Don’t forget, that could be huge when Cincy and Columbus inevitably meet again in the playoffs.

To keep pace with Cincinnati, they’ll have to take down a Toronto side that goes out there and just kind of runs around and somehow wins every other game? It’s not entirely clear how they keep doing this. But they’ve almost locked themselves into a Wild Card spot. A win here would probably seal the deal.

New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal

WATCH: Apple TV - MLS Season Pass | Wednesday, 7:30 pm ET Watchability Score: 17/50 Playoffocity Score: 14/50

This is a game you could watch between two teams that are technically not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

Sporting Kansas City vs. Colorado Rapids

WATCH: Apple TV - MLS Season Pass | Wednesday, 8:30 pm ET Watchability Score: 23/50 Playoffocity Score: 26/50

A pure “take care of business” game for the Rapids. They’re only one point out of second place. They need to win against a bad team. Even if they are on the road.

Nashville SC vs. Chicago Fire FC

WATCH: Apple TV - MLS Season Pass | Wednesday, 8:30 pm ET Watchability Score: 20/50 Playoffocity Score: 14/50

I would not call it a “good” game, but it’s worth seeing if the more expansive soccer Nashville played in Atlanta on Saturday has any staying power.

Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas

WATCH: Apple TV - MLS Season Pass | Wednesday, 9:30 pm ET Watchability Score: 23/50 Playoffocity Score: 26/50

This is the exact same thing as the Colorado game. RSL need to take care of business here. Like really, really need to take care of business. I’m starting to worry about them.

LAFC vs. Austin FC

WATCH: Apple TV - Free, FS1 | Wednesday, 10:30 pm ET Watchability Score: 23/50 Playoffocity Score: 24/50

It’s a get-right game for LAFC after El Tráfico. If they miss here… well, it might be time to have some conversations. It hasn’t looked great since Leagues Cup.