The Minnesota Lynx are scrapping to be seen as genuine containers for the WNBA title, possibly poised to end up as the No. 2 seed and making a trade this week to only push harder. The Las Vegas Aces are worried about homecourt advantage in the first round as they chase their third straight title.

Suffice to say, there is plenty at stake tonight as the WNBA comes up on its stretch run. Here are my free Lynx vs. Aces predictions and WNBA picks for Wednesday, August 21.

My best bet

Under 167.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis

Napheesa Collier may be the most underrated player in the WNBA. Yes, Sabrina Ionescu also does not get her proper due, and neither does Angel Reese just yet. But Collier’s impact became more clear than ever in her absence in the weeks leading up to the month-long Olympics break.

“Phee” played in the first 20 games of the Minnesota Lynx season, when they had the No. 1 defensive rating in the WNBA at 92.2 and a net rating of +9.7. She then missed five games due to plantar fasciitis, partly out of precaution to make sure she could be full-go for the Olympics. Minnesota’s defensive rating spiked to 100.0 and its net rating plummeted to -1.8.

Collier is usually viewed as an offensive player, with today’s local headlines arguing for even more offense out of her. But clearly, her impact was missed most on defense.

Since the league’s return from the month-long break, Collier is also back in the Lynx lineup. Minnesota’s defensive rating has returned to form, if not even better, at 89.9 through two games. Clearly, two games is too small a sample size to trust that number to remain below 90, but it does confirm Collier’s effect on the defensive end.

Oddsmakers are not fools. They work in luxurious buildings in the desert for a reason. But that does not mean they properly appreciate Napheesa Collier’s work on both ends of the court. Almost no one does.

Under 167

Lynx +7 Napheesa Collier Over 18.5 points

This spread has climbed in the last two days, perhaps with the market refusing to believe the Las Vegas Aces will go quietly into the night. There are no notable Minnesota injuries to worry about, and the Tuesday trade for Myisha Hines-Allen did not cost the Lynx any contributors in their rotation. Olivia Époupa averaged 6.6 minutes in 16 games this year, and Sika Koné averaged 3.4 minutes in 17 games.

This spread moving 3.5 points holds little logic and is possibly an overreaction to a Las Vegas narrative. Las Vegas as in the Aces, not the sportsbooks.

Tailing Collier’s points prop is an acknowledgement that she has scored 17 and 30 points, respectively, in her two games this week, taking 29 total shots. She is not shy about getting her offense going, even if her defensive impact is the underrated piece of the Lynx reaching contention this year.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Get the latest Lynx vs Aces WNBA odds for tonight.

The Aces are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games, also cashing four Unders in those five games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Aces.

Lynx: None.Aces: None.Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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