As the checkered flag of Sunday’s marathon Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway ended the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, the “Lady in Black” put her own imprint on the playoff grid.
[Chase Briscoe’s surprise win gave the Stewart-Haas Racing driver an unlikely playoff spot and rendered moot Chris Buescher’s bid to point his way in](https://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/nascar/2024/09/01/nascar-playoff-picture-darlington-cup-series-winner/75043494007/), while Tyler Reddick battled through an illness and held on to edge Kyle Larson for the regular-season points championship.
With the 16-person playoffs now set, here’s a look at how each driver stacks up — plus how The Athletic’s Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi view their chances of winning it all (or not).
Kyle Larson
Rank: First
Playoff points: 40
Wins: Four (Las Vegas, Kansas, Sonoma, Indianapolis)
Best championship finish: First (2021 champion)
Why he can win: The best driver with arguably the best team is a potent combination by itself, then when you add in the fact that Larson will be beginning the playoffs with a series-best 38 playoff points, it only enhances his chances of advancing to the semifinal round — if not further.
Why he won’t: Too many times this season Larson has had the fastest car only to see a potential win not materialize due to a self-induced mistake (Texas, Iowa, Michigan). Should this occur again in the early rounds, his hefty playoff points cache provides a buffer. That won’t necessarily be the case in the latter rounds.
Denny Hamlin
Rank: Sixth
Playoff points: 15
Wins: Three (Bristol, Richmond, Dover)
Best championship finish: Second (2010)
Why he can win: The No. 11 team seems to have some of the fastest cars in the field on a regular basis. Hamlin is capable of winning on a wide variety of tracks, and he should be in the Championship 4. If everything goes right, there’s no reason Hamlin can’t stand on the stage at Phoenix and finally hoist the Cup Series championship trophy for the first time in his career at age 43.
Why he won’t: Uh … have you seen this guy’s luck? There’s a reason Hamlin has said he’s “cursed,” and there are indeed random things that only seem to happen to him (Hail Melon, anyone?). The latest was losing nearly half of his playoff points due to a manufacturer error that had nothing to do with Hamlin or his team. There’s certainly a chance those lost points could come back to bite him; in fact, knowing how things typically go for Hamlin, you can probably bet on it.
Tyler Reddick
Rank: Third
Playoff points: 28
Wins: Two (Talladega, Michigan)
Best championship finish: Sixth (2023)
Why he can win: No driver had better high-level consistency than Reddick, who over 12 summer races scored one win, two seconds, two thirds and two fourths plus three other finishes inside the top 10. That consistency propelled him to the regular-season championship, earning him a valuable 15 bonus points. If he can continue this run through the postseason, a first-ever title is obtainable.
Why he won’t: There is no glaring reason why Reddick can’t win the championship. The miscues that defined his season a year ago have been cleaned up, with the No. 45 team becoming one that frequently puts itself in contention on a near-weekly basis. But if we had to quibble, Reddick had opportunities to win several more races than he did (two) during the regular season but struggled to close out, something that if it continues in the playoffs could be the difference between advancing and elimination.
Ryan Blaney
Rank: Fifth
Playoff points: 18
Wins: Two (Iowa, Pocono)
Best championship finish: First (2023 champion)
Why he can win: After an uneven start to the season, Blaney came on strong during the summer; he had two wins and, with a little luck, would have had a few more. His 2023 title run proved that he can withstand the pressure that comes with racing for a championship, eliminating the kinds of miscues that often defined his previous postseasons. The playoff schedule also sets up favorably for the defending champ, with many of the 10 tracks among his very best. A second consecutive berth in the Championship 4 finale is realistic.
Why he won’t: While Blaney, Team Penske and Ford have made considerable gains, they still don’t consistently have the same speed as the JGR/23XI Toyotas and the Hendrick Chevys. That speed gap may be too much to overcome. And it’s worth noting that there hasn’t been a repeat champion since NASCAR went to the knockout playoff format in 2014, underscoring just how difficult it is to go back-to-back.
Chase Briscoe
Rank: 13th
Playoff points: 5
Wins: One (Southern 500)
Best championship finish: Ninth (2022)
Why he can win: It would be a heck of a longshot and doesn’t seem possible. That said, would anyone have thought Briscoe and Stewart-Haas Racing would win the Southern 500 to claim the final playoff spot? Briscoe is good enough to point his way through a couple rounds and could win at one of the road courses. Oh, and his other career victory came at Phoenix.
Why he won’t: For all of the reasons Briscoe wasn’t a contender most of this season until Sunday night. SHR is a soon-to-be-extinct team that has already lost personnel and hasn’t run well in 2024. Expecting an out-of-nowhere title run would be wilder than the last time the No. 14 car won the championship (in 2011, when Tony Stewart won half of the playoff races).
William Byron
Rank: Fourth
Playoff points: 22
Wins: Three (Daytona 500, Austin, Martinsville)
Best championship finish: Third (2023)
Why he can win: After the struggles at last fall’s Martinsville race, you would have thought the Virginia half-mile track was the weak point for Byron and the No. 24 team. But then they came out and won the spring race there, leading 88 laps. Byron has wins at six of the 10 playoff tracks (all but Bristol, Kansas, the Roval and Talladega), so he’s perfectly capable of being a threat if his team has more consistent speed than it showed this summer.
Why he won’t: Byron hasn’t had three straight top-10 finishes since April and also hasn’t won since then. His uneven summer is concerning, because it’s not clear what type of team the No. 24 really is. Are they the group who can reel off three wins in eight races, as they did to open the year? Or will Byron be way off and miss the setup at times?
Joey Logano
Rank: Ninth
Playoff points: 7
Wins: One (Nashville)
Best championship finish: First (2018 and 2022 champion)
Why he can win: There may be no tougher out in the playoffs than the battle-tested Logano, who understands how valuable every point is and has no qualms going aggressively for a win. This is not a driver the leader wants to see in their rearview on the last lap. His win-at-all-costs mentality serves him very well in this format. And while he may been mostly average during the regular season, he showed in both his title campaigns that he and his team know how to win even when they’re not at their best.
Why he won’t: Were the season to end now, Logano’s 18.8 average finish would represent the worst in his 10 years at Team Penske. This feels like a warning sign that his No. 22 team isn’t up to its customary high standards. Maybe it won’t matter, but there are a lot of question marks for this team.
Austin Dillon
Rank: 14th
Playoff points: 5
Wins: One (Daytona 2)
Best championship finish: 27th (2022)
Why he can win: Every playoff needs a Cinderella, and Burton and the venerable Wood Brothers certainly fit that bill. If they win the championship, it would be the feel-good story of all feel-good stories. And while a title is unrealistic, the possibility exists that Burton could surprisingly advance out of Round 1 if he produces a strong result at Atlanta — a drafting track with somewhat similar characteristics to Daytona — and gets some luck. You never know, right?
Why he won’t: Burton’s body of work during the regular season is that of someone who’s likely to be eliminated after one round. He finished last in points among those who started every race and never was able to string together successive strong finishes.
Chris Buescher
Rank: Not qualified
Playoff points: 5
Wins: None
Best championship finish: 12th (2022)
Why he can’t win: Buescher missed the playoffs by six points with Ty Gibbs taking the 16th and final spot, leaving the RFK Racing feeling complete “frustration and disbelief.”
Kyle Busch
Rank: Not qualified
Playoff points: 5
Wins: None
Best championship finish: First (2015, 2019)
Why he can’t win: Busch ended the regular season with back-to-back runner-up finishes, missing the postseason for the first time since 2012. Buescher, Wallace, and Ross Chastain all just missed out as well.
Ross Chastain
Rank: Not qualified
Playoff points: 4
Wins: None
Best championship finish: Second (2022)
Why he can’t win: Chastain has missed the playoffs by 11 points.
Bubba Wallace
Rank: Not qualified
Playoff points: 4
Wins: None
Best championship finish: 12th (2021)
Why he can’t win: Wallace missed the playoffs by 12 points.
Ty Gibbs
Rank: 15th
Playoff points: 4
Wins: None
Best championship finish: 18th (2023)
Why he can win: The speed has been there all season, with Gibbs leading the seventh-most laps and being close several times to getting his first career victory. Breaking out and tallying some wins during the playoffs wouldn’t be all that surprising, especially considering JGR has had some of the best cars all year. He’s capable of winning on any track, with the possible exception of Martinsville. As far as dark horse title picks go, Gibbs is a good selection.
Why he won’t: It would be unprecedented for a driver who’s never won a race before to win the championship. That lack of experience is likely to be Gibbs’ undoing. Typically, a driver’s first foray into the playoffs is a learning experience, and this is likely how it will go for the 21-year-old.
Martin Truex Jr.
Rank: 16th
Playoff points: 4
Wins: None
Best championship finish: First (2017 champion)
Why he can win: Truex has just 10 races remaining in his full-time Cup Series career, but he’s still a future Hall of Famer with cars capable of winning most weeks. It’s shocking to see him seeded this low and without many playoff points to show for the speed he’s had this season, but it would not be surprising at all to see the No. 19 team suddenly catch fire at the right time — basically the opposite of how the playoffs went last year.
Why he won’t: Despite almost winning multiple times this year, 2024 has been largely disappointing for Truex. Heading into the regular-season finale, he had finishes of 24th or worse in six of the last seven races. That miserable stretch dropped him from fourth in points to ninth, and there’s few signs of suddenly righting the ship in time for one last playoff run.
The Bottom Line
The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs are shaping up to be a thrilling race to the finish. With several drivers in contention, including Larson, Reddick, and Hamlin, the championship is up for grabs. Expect some surprises, intense competition, and a lot of drama as we head towards the final race at Phoenix.
