The New Democrats have declared a federal byelection victory in their Winnipeg stronghold riding of Elmwood—Transcona. Leila Dance, the NDP candidate, has held on to the New Democratic Party's seat in the eastern Winnipeg riding of Elmwood-Transcona, defeating Conservative Colin Reynolds in a federal byelection that was called following the resignation of the area's longtime representative earlier this year.
The race was triggered by the resignation of Daniel Blaikie, the riding's longtime NDP member of Parliament, earlier this year. It saw Dance campaign to hold the seat for the New Democrats, which it has won in every vote since the riding's inception except in 2011, when the Conservatives won a majority government under Stephen Harper.
The results of the byelection will also have implications for both the NDP and Conservatives in the lead-up to the next federal election, according to experts who spoke to CBC's Power & Politics host David Cochrane on Monday night.
Mélanie Richer, a former communications director for the NDP, said the win comes as a bit of a relief for some in the party.
Meanwhile, Fred DeLorey, a former national campaign manager for the Conservatives, said while Reynolds was defeated in the byelection, he did much better than the party typically does in the longtime NDP stronghold.
The Elmwood-Transcona byelection saw Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre secure 1,360 votes in the riding, while the Green Party's Nicolas Geddert received 366 votes, People's Party of Canada candidate Sarah Couture got 349 and the Canadian Future Party's Zbig Strycharz had 132.
The Liberals have not finished higher than third place in Elmwood-Transcona since 1997.
Analysis: What the Byelection Results Mean for the Parties
Political watchers had a keen eye on the results to see if the Tories could sway traditionally NDP voters on issues related to labour and affordability.
The margin of victory for the party is narrower this time than in years past — a sign that while the NDP has pulled in enough votes to win again, the party's brand has taken a bit of a hit.
Dance, a small business advocate, bested Reynolds by about four percentage points — a fraction of what former MP Daniel Blaikie posted in the riding last time.
The Campaign and the Issues
The Elmwood-Transcona seat was left vacant after Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew's NDP government. Blaikie won three elections for the NDP and served more than eight years as MP.
Reynolds, an electrician whose campaign aimed to unseat the NDP by drawing attention to the two-year confidence-and-supply deal between the New Democrats and the governing Liberal Party — which the NDP said it was ending earlier this month — conceded defeat in a speech to supporters Monday night.
At Dance's byelection gathering Monday night, Blaikie said her victory shows she was speaking to issues that matter to working people in northeast Winnipeg.
“I think it's a testament to the fact that, you know, working-class voters pay attention,” he said. “Saying some sweet words and not following up with action isn't going to woo voters. You have to actually show up when it counts.”
The Future of Elmwood-Transcona
“I will fight for Elmwood-Transcona,” Dance told cheering supporters at what became her victory celebration at Junction 59 Roadhouse late Monday night. “I promise to make you all so proud of me, and I will see you in Ottawa.”
The byelection was held in the riding of Elmwood-Transcona, which has traditionally been a safe seat for the NDP. The riding was left vacant after the resignation of Daniel Blaikie, who had been the NDP MP for the riding since 2015.
The NDP victory in Elmwood-Transcona is a sign that the party is still popular in the riding. However, the narrow margin of victory suggests that the NDP's hold on the riding is not as strong as it once was.
The byelection was also seen as a test for the Conservatives, who have been trying to make inroads into the NDP's base of support. However, the Conservatives were unable to make significant gains in the riding.
The results of the byelection are a reminder that the NDP is still a major force in Canadian politics. The party's victory in Elmwood-Transcona is a sign that the NDP is still popular in the riding. However, the narrow margin of victory suggests that the NDP's hold on the riding is not as strong as it once was. The byelection was also seen as a test for the Conservatives, who have been trying to make inroads into the NDP's base of support. However, the Conservatives were unable to make significant gains in the riding.
The Impact on the 2025 Federal Election
The results of the byelection will have a significant impact on the 2025 federal election. The NDP's victory in Elmwood-Transcona shows that the party is still a major force in Canadian politics. However, the narrow margin of victory suggests that the NDP's hold on the riding is not as strong as it once was. The byelection was also seen as a test for the Conservatives, who have been trying to make inroads into the NDP's base of support. However, the Conservatives were unable to make significant gains in the riding. The results of the byelection are a reminder that the NDP is still a major force in Canadian politics.
The NDP's victory in Elmwood-Transcona is a sign that the party is still popular in the riding. However, the narrow margin of victory suggests that the NDP's hold on the riding is not as strong as it once was. The byelection was also seen as a test for the Conservatives, who have been trying to make inroads into the NDP's base of support. However, the Conservatives were unable to make significant gains in the riding.
