Duke faces off against Northwestern in Evanston, Ill., for the first away game of the Manny Diaz era. With 30 minutes to go, the Blue Devils are trailing 10-7 against the Wildcats:
Conservative play-calling: Offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer called up several deep passes for quarterback Maalik Murphy in Duke’s Week 1 contest against Elon, with mixed results. However, Murphy has generally thrown short against Northwestern so far, as evidenced by his four yards per attempt mark. Several screen passes have generally been ineffective against the Wildcats’ defense, and the Blue Devils have failed to achieve chunk yardage thus far in the game.
Run struggles: The Blue Devils’ problems in the run game continued from their contest against Elon Aug. 30, as the team garnered just 42 yards on 15 rush attempts. Perhaps Duke’s best run of the half came in the first quarter, when graduate running back Star Thomas converted a third-and-2 up the middle for a nine-yard gain. In the first quarter, Jaquez Moore had to be helped to the injury tent following an eight-yard gain, forcing the Blue Devils to rely more on Thomas.
Wildcats' ground attack: Northwestern set the tone of the game early with their run game, with Duke’s run defense failing to respond for much of the half. In the first minute of the game, running back Cam Porter broke free for a 44-yard gain before being tackled by linebacker Alex Howard. For the final play of the first quarter, dual-threat Wildcats quarterback Mike Wright broke free for a 12-yard-gain. With starting linebacker Nick Morris Jr. out with a lower-body injury, Duke’s back-seven is under higher pressure from the likes of Porter and Wright. Overall, the Blue Devils allowed 73 yards rushing in the first half, a relatively disappointing mark for head coach Manny Diaz.
Tight coverage: As opposed to its difficulties in stopping the run, Duke’s secondary mostly lived up to its pedigree, holding Wright to 10-of-18 passing for 96 passing yards, no touchdowns and one interception. Defensive back Joshua Pickett notched a highlight in the first quarter when he broke up a pass intended for Wildcats wideout A.J. Henning, and Terry Moore recorded a big interception in plus territory.
Exceptional punting: The Blue Devils’ freshman punter Kade Reynoldson has been on a heater against the Wildcats so far, with the highlight being a 44-yard punt in the first quarter. The ball rolled out of bounds at the Wildcats’ 4-yard-line, forcing a tough drive that ended in an interception off Wright. Near the end of the quarter, Wildcats punt returner Henning bobbled Reynoldson’s punt, leading to a tackle at the 12-yard-line courtesy of Howard and linebacker Cam Bergeron. Northwestern started four drives in the first half inside its own 15-yard-line, showcasing the tenacity of special teams coordinator Gabe Infante’s unit.
Two receptions by Jordan Moore: Wideout Jordan Moore was arguably Duke’s most dynamic player on offense in its opener against Elon, hauling in seven catches for 112 yards. However, he has had a relatively quiet game thus far, catching his only two receptions on a singular drive in the second quarter. The Blue Devils will hope to get him going immediately, as they begin the second half with the ball.
Five tackles for loss: The Blue Devils continued their dominance in tackles for loss from their opening contest against Elon, resulting in a combined 18 yards of lost offense for the Wildcats. Defensive lineman Kendy Charles recorded 1.5 tackles alone, showcasing his potential for the Blue Devils in the trenches.
11 minutes of possession: The Wildcats dominated the time of possession in the first half, barely allowing the Blue Devils to get 11 minutes of possession. Part of that dominance was due to a punt return bobble by Que’Sean Brown in the second quarter, which gave Northwestern a short field to allow for a Cam Porter touchdown two plays later.
In the middle of the first quarter, the Blue Devils’ defense forced a third-and-6 deep in Wildcats territory. Wright threw left, looking for wideout Frank Covey IV. However, junior defensive back Terry Moore was at the ready, leaping to secure Duke’s first defensive interception of the season. Four plays later, Murphy found wideout Eli Pancol on a crossing route for the graduate student’s second touchdown of the season, giving Duke a 7-3 lead.
Manny Diaz enters his second game as the Duke football head coach after leading the Blue Devils to a 26-3 victory over Elon in a dominant defensive effort last week. Duke had eight sacks and held Elon to 2.3 yards per play in its Week 1 victory but will face a stronger offense when Duke plays the Northwestern Wildcats on Friday. Diaz served as Miami head coach for three seasons after previously serving as defensive coordinator at the school.
Kickoff is set for Friday at 9 p.m. ET. The Northwestern vs. Duke odds via SportsLine consensus have flipped. Duke opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but is now a 1.5-point underdog. The over/under has dropped to 37 after opening at 43.5. Before making any Duke vs. Northwestern picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is also coming off a profitable 13-9 season on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Northwestern vs. Duke and just locked in its picks and CFB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college football odds and betting lines for Duke vs. Northwestern:
The Blue Devils defeated Northwestern, 38-14, at home last season for their third victory over the Wildcats over the last three years. Duke has scored at least 30 points in each of those victories as even with changing personnel, the Blue Devils have dominated Northwestern in recent years. Duke is 5-0 against Northwestern since 2017 with two of those victories coming on the road.
Duke is becoming more than just a basketball school over recent years. The Blue Devils have finished with a winning record in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2017 and 2018 and their 17 wins over the previous two seasons were the most since 2014 and 2015. Running back Jaquez Moore had 10 rushes for 61 yards and wide receiver Jordan Moore had five receptions for 56 yards against Northwestern last year and the two key playmakers are back this fall. The addition of Maalik Murphy, a sophomore quarterback who transferred from Texas, also provides big-play potential for a Duke offense that looks to continue its recent dominance over Northwestern. See which team to pick here.
Mike Wright, a fifth-year senior, takes over at quarterback for Northwestern and his dual-threat ability can make him a tough player to scheme against. Wright completed 18 of 30 passes (60%) for 178 yards while rushing for 65 yards and a touchdown on nine carries against Miami (Ohio) in Week 1. Wright transferred in from Mississippi State, where he was a backup and change-of-pace quarterback last season, after spending his first three years at Vanderbilt as he has immense college football experience.
Wright can elevate the offense, but it's Northwestern's defense that figures to be the team's strength. Northwestern closed last season 4-0 and allowed 15 points or fewer in three of those four contests. Last year was the first season for head coach David Braun as Northwestern had to scramble to find a head coach after Pat Fitzpatrick was fired in July 2023 after hazing allegations emerged. Braun has been a defensive coach throughout his career and those strengths shined late in the season and again in Week 1 when the Wildcats held Miami (Ohio) to six points and 4.1 yards per play in the season opener. See which team to pick here.
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 41 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Duke vs. Northwestern, and which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced computer simulation model that's up well over $2,000 on its college football picks since inception, and find out.
Manny Diaz began his Duke coaching career last week with a solid showing over FCS Elon, winning 26-3, but it’s doubtful he’ll be able to replicate that performance against Northwestern, which continues to trend up under David Braun.
Duke enters Friday’s primetime matchup as 2.5-point road underdogs against a Northwestern team attempting to do something it hasn’t done since 2015 — start 2-0 straight up and against the spread.
Read on for my Duke vs Northwestern odds, prediction, and pick.
(9 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)
After years of Big Ten mediocrity under Pat Fitzgerald, the Wildcats looked rejuvenated under Braun.
Last season, the former Winona State defensive lineman coached up Northwestern’s previously underperforming defense.
The Wildcats allowed just 22 points per game, winning their final five games by holding four opponents under 15 points.
They were a tad lucky, generating a +13 turnover margin while going 5-2 in one-score games.
But they were also excellent at keeping everything in front of them, ranking sixth nationally in Explosive Plays allowed (44, 22nd).
If you expected regression, it didn’t come in Week 1.
Miami (OH) has an elite MAC offense, and Brett Gabbert is arguably the best quarterback in the Group of Five.
Yet, Northwestern held the RedHawks to a 39% Success Rate (17th percentile) and -0.19 EPA per Play (17th percentile) en route to just two field goals. Gabbert was sacked three times and threw two picks.
This makes sense. Northwestern returned eight starters from last year’s bend-don’t-break crew, so the Wildcats have enough experience to overwhelm a far less talented team.
While I eventually expect regression from the Wildcats against more talented Power Four offenses, I don’t believe Duke fits that bill.
Diaz was a good hire for Duke, but the Blue Devils are working on a complete Year 0 rebuild. They have a new head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and quarterback (Maalik Murphy).
Their offensive line is the least experienced in the ACC, with only 37 career starts, which doesn’t bode well against a Wildcat defensive line that returned seven of its top eight rotation guys from last year.
The Blue Devils returned only five defensive starters from 2023 and lost their top five defensive linemen, which will be a disadvantage against a relatively experienced Northwestern offensive line.
The Wildcats should own the trenches on Friday.
Duke ranks 108th nationally in experience, including second-to-last in the ACC. An argument could be made that the Blue Devils are the worst team in the ACC.
While they played well against Elon, you can’t draw too much from a Week 1 game against an FCS opponent. Conversely, I feel good about Northwestern’s defense after its Week 1 showing against the defending MAC champions, and I think the Wildcats can replicate that.
I’m not overly confident in Northwestern’s mediocre offense, and I don’t love QB1 Mike Wright. But the Wildcats did just enough against an uber-experienced Miami (OH) defense last week. I expect the same against a far less experienced (albeit more talented) stop unit.
Action Network’s PRO model projects the Wildcats as seven-point favorites in this game, so I’m quite happy grabbing them under a field goal on the spread.
Pick: Northwestern -2.5 (-110, Caesars)
