The penultimate match of the 2024 NRL campaign is upon us, and that means we're just 80 minutes away from the end-of-season Grand Final next weekend. Melbourne Storm have already booked their place, leaving it up to the winner of this Preliminary Final between the Penrith Panthers and Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks to see who'll join them in the Sydney decider.
Winners of the NRL in 2021, 2022 and 2023, Penrith have already made a statement of intent in the 2024 Finals Series by thumping the Sydney Roosters in their qualifying final. The Sharks, meanwhile, have not had the luxury of a week off like their Sydney neighbours, bouncing back from a Week 1 defeat against Melbourne by beating the North Queensland Cowboys last time out.
The Sharks are out to prove that they can defeat a champion, and that's exactly what they're aiming to do when they face the reigning Panthers at Accor Stadium. If they're to progress to the decider and earn a shot at premiership glory, the Sharks are tasked with spoiling Penrith's plans of a historic four-peat.
It won't be easy - the Panthers are aiming to qualify for their fifth-straight grand final and have won 10 consecutive playoffs games, a feat not accomplished since the mighty Dragons of the 1950-60s - but the Sharks exude a calm confidence. After flinging the monkey off their back by claiming a breakthrough 26-18 semi-final victory against the Cowboys last week, Cronulla have snapped the shackles of expectation and won't be fazed by their underdog status.
The Panthers will enter the match after a 15-day turnaround, having earned a week off with a 30-10 win over the Roosters to open their finals campaign. While they're perhaps not the all-conquering dominant force of previous years, enduring a few stumbles in the regular season amid injuries to key men including Nathan Cleary, Penrith's class and big-game experience will take them a long way.
Naturally, the spotlight will be fixed on the halves pairings: Cronulla's Nicho Hynes and Braydon Trindall against Panthers duo Cleary and Jarome Luai. However, after linking up wonderfully last week, Fitzgibbon wants his playmakers to maintain an inward focus rather than striving to outpoint their opposite numbers. Hynes will be determined to mark his 100th NRL match with a win.
While both clubs were admitted to the first-grade competition in 1967, the Sharks and Panthers have contested just one finals match - won 21-20 by Cronulla in 2018. Penrith prevailed 42-0 when the teams met earlier this season, however Hynes was forced off during the first half with a calf injury on that occasion.
As far as the Sharks are concerned, past results and opinions mean very little. "We're going after the game like we do every week," captain Cam McInnes declared. "On the outside people probably aren't giving us a chance, but that's probably been every so-perceived 'big game' for the last three years, so what's different this week?"
NRL Preliminary Finals Preview
The penultimate game for the 2024 NRL season will see the three-time defending champion Penrith Panthers take on the Cronulla Sharks, for the right to take on either the Storm or Roosters in the Big Dance next Sunday. Whilst the Panthers are no strangers to the Prelims, making it to this stage of the season the last five years, the Sharks have made it back to this stage for the first time since 2018. Will experience be the difference here, or can the Sharks pull off the massive upset? We bring you our thoughts and best bets below!
Last Week
The Panthers had a well-earned rest last weekend, having won their Qualifying Final over the Roosters in week 1 of the Finals, 30-10. The Panthers put on an absolute clinic in the first quarter of the match, leading 22-0 after 24 minutes, and whilst they took the foot of the gas and allowed the Roosters back into the contest, when it got close they inevitably clicked back into gear to win comfortably in the end. Nathan Cleary seemed like he was straight back into top gear, managing two try assists whilst having an unbelievable kicking game. Isaah Yeo was also brilliant, running for over 200 metres and making 42 tackles, whilst orchestrating the middle of this Panthers machine all night.
Whilst the Sharks lost in week 1 of the finals, they got a second chance last weekend against the Cowboys, and took advantage of it, winning their first finals game since 2018. The Sharks jumped out to an early lead in a terrific first half, leading 24-0 at the half, however somewhat concerningly allowed two quick tries in the second half to allow the Cowboys back into the game. The Sharks didn’t manage a try in the second half, but held on to win 26-18, in what seemed like a massive monkey off the back, particularly for Nicho Hynes. Whilst Hynes was solid, it was Braydon Trindall who took over for the Sharks, setting up a try and scoring two himself. Hynes will need to be at his best if the Sharks are to win this weekend and make a second Grand Final in nine years.
Match Preview
The recent history between these two teams makes for grim reading for the Sharks, having only one win over the Panthers in the past 8 meetings, and even that win required a 79th minute Shaun Johnson field goal to get them home. The teams met just once this season, in round 12 at PointsBet Stadium, and the Panthers obliterated the Sharks, running away 42-0 winners, after closing just 3.5-point road favourites. The Panthers were without Nathan Cleary for the clash, making for even worse reading for Sharks’ fans. The total closed 41.5, with the Panthers getting that over the line by themselves.
Moving forward to the Prelim Final, and the Panthers opened 11.5-point favourites, with the number pushing towards 12/12.5 throughout the week. I make the Panthers a 9.5-point favourite, so I can see slight value in the Sharks, however I wouldn’t touch this spread unless it gets the Sharks +12.5.
Moving onto the total, and it opened 42.5 and hasn’t moved. I make a fair total 40.5, so I don’t see a great deal of value here. It’s the second lowest total in this year’s finals series, behind only the Panthers/Roosters game in week 1, which went under by a point. It’s too tight, and I’ll leave it alone for now.
There is a concern that the occasion is too big here for the Sharks. It has been banged on about for weeks that this Sharks team folds when the big games come around, and they don’t get much bigger than this, with the winner moving onto the Grand Final. And whilst looking at this it would appear that the pressure would be on the Sharks to take advantage of this opportunity, the Panthers will have far more pressure on them. With the losses of Luai and Fisher-Harris at the end of the season, this is surely the last year the Panthers cruise to a Prelim Final with such ease, and with history and a 4-peat just two wins away, the players will surely be nervous. Still, they have the experience, and the skill, to get the win here, but I sense they will have one eye on next week. If they do this, I still think they win, but the Sharks should keep this close enough to make Panthers fans a little nervous. Panthers 1-12 is the play.
