With just three weeks remaining in the NRLW regular season, teams are beginning to position themselves for a spot in the Finals. With just four places available and one position likely confirmed, just 4 points separates 2nd-8th. It makes each result extremely important, and this is translating to exhilarating rugby league action.
North Queensland Cowboys vs Wests Tigers
Queensland Country Bank Stadium – Saturday 7th September – 11am (AEST)
Despite starting strongly against the Broncos and trailing 18-12 at HT, the Cowboys were comprehensively defeated 38-12, conceding 4 further tries in the second half. It was a disappointing display but not surprising considering they only completed at 60%, missed 39 tackles and conceded 15 line breaks. The Tigers were also outclassed in their 34-6 loss to the Knights. The match was all but over at HT as their trailed 26-nil. It was always going to be a challenge to perform well against a superior opponent, but a 44% share of possession and 67% completion rate didn’t help their cause. Missing 39 tackles and allowing 10 line breaks only compounded their issues.
The Cowboys are overwhelming favourites for this game ($1.16 vs $5.20) and a win to them appears a likely outcome. The Tigers only average 9ppg in attack, while conceding 28ppg defensively. The Cowboys have a negative difference (15ppg in attack and 22ppg in defence) but they are capable. The Tigers are going to eventually win a game, so invest carefully. The last few weeks they have suffered heavy defeats, and their confidence is low but the home team should have what it takes to cover the line by keeping the visitors score low.
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canberra Raiders
Netstrata Jubilee Stadium – Saturday 7th September – 12:45pm (AEST)
The Dragons produced an impressive 42-14 performance against the Eels, with the 8-try effort highlight the talent within their team. Bizarrely, it culminated in the sacking of coach Soward earlier this week. What is going on at this club is anyone’s guess. On the field, they were great by averaging 8.9m per carry, making 559 PCM’s and creating 9 line breaks. The Raiders started strongly against the Roosters by scoring in the opening minute but went on to lose 34-20. Trying hard, they couldn’t match the strength of their opponent, with their weaker defensive line missing 47 tackles. Combined with allowing 10.5m per carry, the visitors were always going to struggle.
It will be interesting to see how the news of Soward’s departure will impact the Dragons. They are favourites for this game but on the surface, this is one to stay away from altogether. A combination of factors including form and player injuries for the Raiders, are reasons the Dragons are favourites ($1.47 vs $2.70). Despite scoring fewer points in attack (19ppg vs 20ppg), they have a superior defensive record…but only just (22ppg vs 25ppg). Therefore, take either team to win this game by fewer than 10 points and just see what is on offer over the 70 minutes.
Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters
PointsBet Stadium – Sunday 8th September – 12pm (AEST)
The Sharks travelled up to the Gold Coast and kept their undefeated streak alive with a convincing 22-6 victory. Many doubted their credentials as they were listed as outsiders, but they clearly dominated the contest; with 58% possession they completed at 78%, averaged 9.5m per carry, and made 8 line breaks. They were better defensively also, missing just 18 tackles and conceding only 1 line break. The Roosters were their typical dynamic self, displaying a ruthless execution in attack, defeating the Raiders 34-20. With an equal share of possession, they completed at 80%, averaged 10.5m per carry, and created 6 line breaks. They will want to improve upon their 41 missed tackles but there is no doubt that their defence is strong when needed.
The Sharks are finally getting the respect they deserve by being listed as favourites ($1.74 vs $2.10); the loss of Milly Elliott hurts the Roosters against a team which is unchanged following a great performance. There is no doubt the Sharks are the stronger team across the park, but the Roosters have the ability to grind out a tough performance. It means more to the Roosters to win this game given their standing on the ladder and that may just be their point of difference. Rather than take a team to win H2H, the safer option in this game is to have either team victorious by a narrow margin.
Gold Coast Titans vs Parramatta Eels
Eric Tweedle Stadium – Sunday 8th September – 1:45pm (AEST)
Both sides suffered heavy defeats last week. The Eels tried hard against the Dragons but were defeated in spectacular fashion 42-14. Allowing their opponents to score 8 tries was underpinned by their 41 missed tackles. It was poor play from them in just about every area. The Titans were better in their match against the Sharks but were still convincingly upset by their opponents 22-6. Listed as favourites, a better showing was expected. They were their own worst enemy though, completing at just 67% with a 42% share of possession. Missing 37 tackles and conceding 8 line breaks, while only managing 1, was never going to help either.
The Titans are listed as favourites ($2.70 vs $1.47) with the loss of Cherrington hurting the Eels. They lose a capable player on both sides of the ball, and they will struggle to cover the void left by her. The fact that these teams are 6th and 5th on the ladder respectively, highlights how close this game could be, but the visitors are a class above their opponents. It would be surprising to see a blowout though; each team is similar in both attack (attack = Eels 16ppg vs Titans 15ppg – defence = Eels 20ppg vs Titans 17ppg).
Newcastle Knights vs Brisbane Broncos
McDonald Jones Stadium – Sunday 8th September – 6:10pm (AEST)
The Knights easily accounted for the Tigers 34-6, oozing class for the entire contest. The victory was established on the back of ball control (56% possession), a superior completion rate (72%) and strong ball carrying (10.1m per carry). This allowed them to make 10 line breaks; they were strong defensive missing just 17 tackles. The Broncos also put on a clinic in their match, overcoming a tight first half and kicking into another gear to defeat the Cowboys 38-12. Taking them a while to gain ascendency, once the Broncos found momentum, they were ruthless in their execution. This is highlighted by their 12m per carry average which also set them up to create 15 line breaks. They will want to improve upon their 37 missed tackles and 65% completion rate but will have no worries when they dominate the middle like they did.
This game is going to be a preview of what is to come in the Finals. Both teams are quality outfits and know how to win matches. Each also has a different set of personnel challenges to overcome; if this game goes as planned, it will be close until the late stages. This is where either team is capable of prevailing. Rather than invest on that, the safer option is to invest on either winning by fewer than 8 points.
Scooby's Insights
Scooby is our NRL guru with over ten years experience writing about rugby league with Before You Bet and previously at The Profits. His background is in playing and coaching but he's enjoyed the switch to share his knowledge through his articles, as well as sharing his thoughts on Twitter.
Scooby's strength is assessing the overall team - what they offer across the field in a match and how the ethos of a club contributes to their success. Momentum also has a major impact on sports, and Scooby likes to explore this, while underpinning his judgement against a solid basis of statistical analysis. When combined with the aforementioned points, it combines for a holistic approach towards betting on rugby league.
Other sports he enjoys include Cricket, Horse Racing and NFL. There is a reason why Scooby ‘clicked’ with BYB from Day 1 - he loves his sport as much as we do.
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