The Denver Nuggets haven't gotten off to a fast start, but they have a good chance to grab that elusive first win tonight vs. the Raptors in dominant fashion, per our NBA betting picks.

With some troubling early signs brewing, the Denver Nuggets are still looking for their first win of the season as they visit the Toronto Raptors tonight.

Denver’s shaky supporting cast is quickly becoming a storyline after an 0-2 start, but my Nuggets vs. Raptors predictions suggest a backlash from the visitors here, with Nikola Jokic factoring heavily into my top NBA picks for this October 28 matchup.

My best bet Nuggets -7.5 (-120 at PointsBet Canada)

My analysis

The Denver Nuggets arrive at Scotiabank Arena with a clear talent edge over the rebuilding Toronto Raptors and, just as importantly, there’s real urgency for Denver to kickstart its season.

That’s a formula for the visitors to take off. I expect a ruthless, focused performance from the Nuggets, and I’m taking them to cover this spread against a Toronto team that’s clearly prioritizing player development.

The biggest question mark for Denver is bench production. The Russell Westbrook gamble is off to a rough start and Michael Malone has had no choice but to hand minutes to unproven reserves so far this year.

The good news for the Nuggets tonight is that Toronto is experimenting with a rookie-laden second unit, and the Raptors’ bench isn’t likely to exploit Denver like the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Clippers did last week.

With Nikola Jokic coming off a 41-point outburst against the Clippers, including a career-high seven 3-pointers, and Jamal Murray seeming more like himself with a 22-point effort, I see the visitors getting off to a fast start.

Denver should also be well-placed to cash in on a turnover-prone Toronto rotation (46 turnovers in the past two games) that’s missing Kelly Olynyk and Bruce Brown and is likely to be without Immanuel Quickley again tonight, too.

The Nuggets have won five of the past seven meetings between these teams, and I’m wagering on a comfortable road victory here.

Nuggets -7.5 Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 assists Scottie Barnes Under 20.5 points

I’m doubling down on an efficient night for the Denver offense by adding the Over on Jokic’s assists prop for my SGP.

It’s too much to ask Jakob Poeltl or Chris Boucher to guard Jokic straight up, so it’s inevitable that the Raptors will need to send double teams when Joker sets up on the block — and that should mean open looks for the team’s best shooters, Murray and Michael Porter Jr.

Jokic had 13 dimes in the season opener, and the stage is set for another double-digit assist night, even if the second unit’s streaky shooting continues. Plus, I don’t foresee a repeat of the 26 field goal attempts Joker hoisted on Saturday.

I’m also grabbing a Scottie Barnes prop. Barnes has been given the keys to the Toronto offense but he looked too passive at times in the first week when the Raptors needed him to fill the void left by the injuries to Quickley and R.J. Barrett.

Though he’s capable of muscling his way to the rim against most wing defenders, Barnes has been held to 20 points or fewer in two of his three outings so far, including a nine-point dud in the season opener.

That’s leading me to the Under on his points prop here. Barnes is walking into a tough matchup against Aaron Gordon, and Barrett’s possible return from a shoulder issue could also take a few touches away from him.

There’s also blowout potential with this clash, which could put a dent in Barnes’ minutes.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Despite the Raptors’ inconsistent offense, the Over has been a winning ticket in each of their last seven home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Nuggets.

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Tom Oldfield’s sports writing journey over the past 20 years has taken him from the Premier League and Champions League to the NFL, NBA, WNBA and MLB, with a wide range of articles and betting previews. Tom has worked closely with London’s Sportsbeat sports news agency as well as (thrillingly!) covering the Toronto Raptors’ 2019 NBA championship run, and he has appeared on BBC World Service and The Back Page podcast.

A graduate of the University of Nottingham in the UK, he is the author of biographies on Cristiano Ronaldo, Rafael Nadal, Gary Neville and Cesc Fabregas, and he co-authors a long-running series of children’s soccer books with his brother, Matt.

As a regular bettor across the top sports leagues, particularly with FanDuel and bet365, he is well versed on all the major markets and the next big game is rarely far from his thoughts. The best betting advice he has received is to monitor multiple sportsbooks to grab the best possible value.

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