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Ohio State's Playoff Hopes Hinge on Penn State Showdown: Can Buckeyes Crack Top 2 With a Win?

2 November, 2024 - 8:01PM
Ohio State's Playoff Hopes Hinge on Penn State Showdown: Can Buckeyes Crack Top 2 With a Win?
Credit: cleveland.com

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. -- Ohio State’s early College Football Playoff resume is set and now it’s time to go get revenge. The 20-13 win over Penn State was a 60-minute representation of what October was like for the Buckeyes. It wasn’t pretty, sometimes they got in their own way, and they suffered a few losses on their way to the finish line. But now it’s over. Now you head into Tuesday with arguably the nation’s second-best College Football Playoff resume, and the only team with a better one is who you lost to by one point in their stadium. You patched up the things you needed to fix while making the best of the places you couldn’t. Sometimes it’s OK to just walk away feeling like a win is a win even if you think maybe you could’ve done more. The only thing that matters is that when it mattered most, every question about this team got answered. Your defense got the fourth-quarter stop — on the goal line — that’s seemed to evade it for Jim Knowles’ entire tenure. You found an offensive line combination that was good enough to operate an offense with a play-caller willing to be as creative as possible. And when it was time to put the game away, the run game figured itself out as the Buckeyes marched their way down the field for the final 5:13 of the game. October is over now and OSU has put itself in a position to get the very thing this season was always about. Key players returned to write a better story. Key transfers came to aid in that journey and a few freshmen have joined the ride as well. They all wanted revenge for three years of underachieving, while watching the ones you hate the most take the things you desire the most. Now it’s time for the big payback. That starts with games against Purdue and Northwestern, where the goal is to walk away with convincing wins and continue to build depth. And not add more people to an injury report that already features two key players in Josh Simmons and Will Kacmarek. That includes hoping that Tyleik Williams’ injury isn’t anything long term. Then comes Indiana, a team that thinks it’s ready to sit at the Big Ten’s grown-up table, and it’s on OSU to show the Hoosiers why they’re not. After that is Michigan, the team that’s most responsible — outside of the Buckeyes’ own shortcomings — for the pain this program has suffered the last three years. Then maybe a second chance at Oregon awaits you in Indianapolis at the Big Ten Championship game. That’s the only thing that matters now. No matter how ugly things were getting here, Ohio State got here with plenty of scars to show for it. Every reason this roster came together just got put right back on the table. Along the way, a few extra motivations were added to a list already overflowing. There's a good chance that Ohio State's season will be on the line on Saturday, as Ryan Day leads his Buckeyes into Beaver Stadium for a top-five showdown against undefeated Penn State. After losing to Oregon and looking awfully shaky last weekend against Nebraska, anxiety around Columbus is high: Come up short in this one, and you can likely kiss your Big 10 title — and even College Football Playoff — hopes goodbye. Win, though, and suddenly things are right back on track. Knocking off the No. 4-ranked team in the country, in a hostile environment, would be one of the most impressive wins any team could claim on its resume so far this season — and could vault the Buckeyes even further up the college football rankings. While the head-to-head loss to Oregon means that the top spot is out of the question, what about No. 2? Let's break down the tale of the tape between Ohio State and Georgia, should OSU come out on top in Happy Valley on Saturday. First, let's take stock of where things stand ahead of Week 10. Both Ohio State and Georgia have one loss, both in competitive games on the road against teams regarded at the time as among the very best in the country. But while Oregon has seemingly only gotten better since its showdown with the Buckeyes, Alabama has gone into a bit of a tailspin, losing at Vanderbilt and nearly getting upset at home by South Carolina. Considering the trajectories of each team in the weeks since — and the fact that the Dawgs nearly got run out of Bryant-Denny Stadium before staging a frantic comeback in the second half — you'd have to give Ohio State the slight edge in this particular comparison. As for which team has the most impressive collection of wins, though, that's another story. Georgia has arguably the best win of any team this season: While Oregon squeaked by Ohio State at home thanks to some late-game shenanigans, the Dawgs ran roughshod over Texas on the road, maybe the most convincing a team has looked all year considering the opponent and the moment. Georgia also has a marquee nonconference win, blowing out a Clemson team that has since proven to be among the best in the ACC. Ohio State, on the other hand, played three Group of 5 teams, and not particularly good ones. The Buckeyes' best win at this point might be at home against Iowa, and all due respect to Kirk Ferentz and Co., that doesn't mean what it used to. Ohio State's other Power 5 wins are at Michigan State and at home against Nebraska in a game that it was losing in the fourth quarter. Georgia hasn't been immune from throwing up some clunkers itself — it arguably should've lost on the road to a bad Kentucky team and played with its food against Mississippi State — but the Dawgs' best wins probably give it a slight resume edge overall. But would that remain the case if Ohio State added Penn State to the list? The answer probably comes down to how that win takes place. If Ohio State largely controls the game and wins by multiple scores, then yes, they probably should take over No. 2 from the Dawgs. That would give the Buckeyes a win every bit as meaningful as Georgia's at Texas, if not more so, and Ohio State having a tougher loss would probably be enough to get them over the hump. Yes, the rest of the resume isn't quite as strong, but Georgia's win over Clemson shouldn't outweigh the fact that the Buckeyes' only blemish came by the thinnest possible margin at the best team in the country. Plus, Ohio State only has one nervous win (the Nebraska game), compared to two for Georgia (they were never at risk of losing to Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs are among the very worst teams in the Power 5 this year). If the game is close, however — if it feels like Ohio State escaped rather than proved it was the better team — voters are likely to still favor Georgia, provided that the Dawgs take care of business in reasonably convincing fashion against a mediocre Florida squad. Georgia has proven how high its ceiling is, and unless the Buckeyes can do the same, that would and should win out. Yes, Kirby Smart's crew has underachieved a couple times, but we've seen them pull that trick in the past only to flip a switch and turn on the afterburners. They've earned the benefit of the doubt, and their performance at Texas was awfully convincing.

Tags:
Ohio State Buckeyes football Penn State Nittany Lions football College Football Playoff
Nneka Okoro
Nneka Okoro

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