A dizzying number of form strands collide in the Sumbe Prix Morny at Deauville (2.50), with the winners of the Norfolk, Coventry, July and Duchess of Cambridge Stakes all pitching up to take on the Prix Robert Papin and the Prix de Cabourg principals.
There is not a huge amount of collateral form to place one above the rest, although the sheer work ethic of Whistlejacket makes him the potential key to unlocking the puzzle.
The No Nay Never colt was backed as the Coolmore banker of the week in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot but found both Shareholder and the five furlongs too sharp.
He looked a juvenile ready to fulfil his potential when running away with the July Stakes at Newmarket and attempts swift recompense after giving second best to Babouche in the Phoenix Stakes last Saturday, a performance which nonetheless earned him a 108 Racing Post Rating, which is 3lb clear of of his old rival Shareholder.
Wathnan Racing's Norfolk winner has the profile of a horse who could have more to give, since he was winning at Royal Ascot just 40 days after being bought at the Arqana Breeze-Up Sale, and 12 days on from his debut success at Beverley.
There is a lot to like about his swift progression, although it is unlikely even Karl Burke knows whether Shareholder has the beating of his streetwise stablemate Arabie, an imposing model who has done his best work in the final furlong on two visits to France and in whom Jim Crowley retains a lot of faith.
Moreover, after taking a couple of early knocks, the Coventry form is probably due some revision, with fifth-placed Al Quadra winning the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes and seventh home Cowardofthecounty landing the Group 3 Prix Francois Boutin here last Sunday.
Simon and Ed Crisford enjoyed a landmark day in last year's Morny with Vandeek and have supplemented Arabian Dusk, one of four fillies in the line-up, after her win in the Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket.
Estepona is unbeaten in two starts below stakes level and has the potential to outrun his likely chunky odds for the shrewd Mauricio Delcher Sanchez.
The Contenders
Shareholder
Karl Burke saddles likely favourite Shareholder and a solid candidate in Arabie, hoping to repeat his Morny one-two in 2017 with Unfortunately and Havana Grey.
Arabie has proved himself over six furlongs with success in the Prix du Bois and the Prix Robert Papin, while there was a spark of brilliance about Shareholder's display over five furlongs in the Norfolk Stakes.
"They're two very good colts," said Burke. "Arabie is tough and never wins by three lengths, but he's in top form, loves running in France and could be underestimated.
"We gave Shareholder two to three weeks off after winning at Royal Ascot and this looked right to have a go at. He'll need to settle, but we're full of confidence."
Whistlejacket
Aiden O'Brien, trainer of Whistlejacket "We’re very happy with him and the plan was always to go to both the Phoenix and this race. He came out of the Curragh very well and he’s a very fast horse."
Estepona
Mauricio Delcher Sanchez, trainer of Estepona "It's a proper Group 1 full of horses that have proved themselves at a high level. My colt is in great form and he is very mature for his age and takes his racing like an old hand, while he knows the track at Deauville very well. He is a precocious horse riding the wave of confidence after two wins. We can try something here because the horse allows it in his professional way of going about things."
Rashabar
Brian Meehan, trainer of Rashabar "He's done really well since the Coventry. He travelled over well and looks great this [Saturday] morning, so I'm really happy with him. The concern was fast ground but he handled that just fine at Ascot and, if there's still a little bit of ease after Friday's rain, he's out of a Camelot mare, so I don't think that would do him any harm."
Arabian Dusk
Ed Crisford, joint-trainer of Arabian Dusk "I think she's taken a step forward from what was a good performance at Newmarket. When we supplemented we knew the rain was coming and she seemed to enjoy getting her toe in a little bit the last day. We were toying between here and York but she's won a Group 2 and she would carry a penalty in the Lowther, so we just felt we'd give her a crack in Group 1 company."
Daylight
Pauline Chehboub of Gousserie Racing, co-owner of Daylight "We targeted the Morny for Daylight some while ago and she is in great form, having shown her capabilities already against the colts. She has a lot of talent and I hope he she can demonstrate that here."
Polyvega
Carlos Laffon-Parias, trainer of Polyvega "She was sick after her first run, which is why she missed the Papin, and so was making a bit of a comeback run the other day. It's a very high-quality field but I think she will have come forward from her last race, and if she can be placed in a Group 1 it would obviously be very important."
Epson Blue Cen
Maurizio Guarnieri, trainer of Epson Blue Cen "The other day she was beaten in a very slowly run race. On debut she won in a minute and nine seconds, whereas the other day they ran one minute 13 and change. She's come out of the race very well and the experience has done her a great deal of good. We know it's a very difficult race, but she is a very professional and calm filly, so I think she will be fine."
The Verdict
Seven millimetres of rain fell at Deauville on Friday, which knocked the going back to 'souple', which is near enough good to soft in GoingStick terms. With no further rain forecast and only moderate temperatures, the ground is likely to ride no faster than good.
The Prix Morny is a notoriously tough race to predict, with a number of potential winners in the field. Shareholder, Arabie and Whistlejacket all have strong claims, but Rashabar, Arabian Dusk and Daylight could also cause an upset. The race is sure to be a thrilling affair, and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top.
