Quebec's Tornado Drought: Is This the Quietest Season in a Decade?

The summer season is quickly nearing its end, with the threat for severe thunderstorms becoming more sporadic, as well. Although it's not impossible to still see the chance for severe conditions, including tornadoes, last into the fall season, it certainly does become more rare as the cooler weather isn't as ripe.

One thing is clear looking back on the season as a whole however, and that's the number of tornadoes, or lack thereof, that were recorded in Quebec this year.

As of mid-September, the last tornado reported in the province was back on July, 24, with a rare and abrupt lull in the stormy conditions throughout the entire month of August. The results are similar on a national scale with a much quieter season overall, aside from Ontario, which has reported a total of 28 tornadoes when the annual average is typically closer to 18.

If this trend continues in Quebec, and no other tornadoes occur in the province this year, this would be the first time since 2014 that no tornado has formed for the region in August or later. Quebec is looking at a possible 10-year record, with a major lull in the active weather season and lack of tornadoes reported since July.

A Look at the Numbers

The majority of the tornadoes in Quebec this year have happened over only a couple of days. The first tornado of the year was back on May 27, causing damage near the Ontario border. That was followed by two days of severe weather, which saw a total of 10 tornadoes in Quebec -- six on June 13, and four on July 24. Otherwise, only one other tornado hit the region this year, and that occurred on July 17.

The number of tornado events recorded this season certainly make for a relatively quiet year, though it still sits above the yearly average of 10 for the province. In recent years however, 2017, 2018 and 2022 all stand out as much more severe with 33, 31 and 26 tornadoes reported, respectively. These active years also coincide with the start of the Northern Tornadoes project (NTP), which launched at Western University in 2017, a program that has been using new tools to try and report every tornado that occurs.

Possible Reasons for the Lull

While the exact reason for the lull in tornado activity in Quebec remains a topic of ongoing research, several factors are being considered:

Climate Change: Climate change is causing changes in weather patterns globally, with some regions experiencing an increase in severe weather events while others see a decrease. It is possible that Quebec is experiencing a temporary lull in tornado activity as a result of these shifting patterns.
Natural Variability: Weather patterns can vary significantly from year to year, even in the absence of climate change. It's possible that the current lull is simply a result of natural fluctuations in the atmospheric conditions that favor tornado formation.
Improved Detection: The NTP has been instrumental in identifying and documenting tornadoes in Canada. It's possible that the increase in reported tornadoes in recent years is partly due to improved detection methods, rather than an actual increase in tornado occurrences.

What Does the Future Hold?

While it's impossible to predict the future with certainty, it's important to be aware of the potential risks associated with severe weather events. The current lull in tornado activity in Quebec should not be interpreted as a sign that the risk is gone. As the climate changes, the frequency and intensity of severe weather events could increase, and it's crucial to be prepared for all possibilities.

Staying Prepared

It's important to remember that even if Quebec is experiencing a lull in tornado activity, the threat remains. Residents of Quebec should still be prepared for severe weather events. Here are a few key things to keep in mind:

Develop an Emergency Plan: Have a plan in place for what to do in case of a tornado warning. Know where to go for shelter, and make sure everyone in your household knows the plan.
Stay Informed: Pay close attention to weather forecasts and warnings. Sign up for weather alerts from your local government or emergency management agency.
Have a Safety Kit: Keep a kit with essential supplies, such as food, water, a first-aid kit, a flashlight, and a battery-powered radio, readily available in case of an emergency.

The future of tornado activity in Quebec remains uncertain, but it's essential to remain vigilant and prepared for whatever Mother Nature may throw our way. Even in the midst of a quiet season, it's always better to be safe than sorry. With files from MétéoMédia.