Scottie Barnes' Triumphant Return and its Ripple Effect on the Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors' landscape shifted dramatically on Thursday, November 21st, 2024, with the electrifying return of their star forward, Scottie Barnes, from an 11-game absence due to a fractured orbital bone. His comeback against the Minnesota Timberwolves wasn't just a win for the Raptors; it sent ripples through fantasy basketball leagues and ignited speculation about the performance of his teammates. Barnes' impact on the Raptors' game plan is as significant as his performance on the court.

The Impact on RJ Barrett

The Upsides of Barnes' Absence for Barrett

During Barnes' absence, RJ Barrett experienced a career resurgence. He averaged an impressive 23.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game, boasting a career-high 31% usage rate. This offensive explosion propelled him into the top 25 players in many points leagues. The increase in assists and steals further enhanced his fantasy value, proving his potential as a lead offensive creator. This was largely because the team needed to distribute Barnes' workload between himself, Jakob Poeltl, and Gradey Dick. The unexpected boon of this unexpected situation was that Barrett thrived in this increased responsibility.

The Downsides of Barnes' Return for Barrett

However, the return of Barnes signals a shift back to a more balanced offensive approach. While Barrett and Barnes have shared the court only once before this season, data combining last year's statistics with the limited data points we have for this season suggests a slight dip in Barrett's overall usage rate (to approximately 24.6%), points (20.6), and assists (3.8) when playing alongside Barnes. Despite this apparent regression, an important caveat is that the pair's previous limited playing time together showcased improved efficiency for Barrett; his field goal percentage shot up to 54%, his three-point percentage to 40.1%, and his turnovers decreased significantly. While some fantasy managers might be worried, an efficient Barrett is still a highly valuable asset in nine-category leagues.

Final Verdict on Barrett's Fantasy Value

In essence, Barrett remains a valuable asset for fantasy managers. The improved efficiency playing with Barnes could make Barrett worth considering, even with the predicted reduced usage. Fantasy owners might even find this a buy-low opportunity, anticipating a short-term dip in his stats as the team readjusts to the return of their franchise star.

Jakob Poeltl: A Rock in the Storm

Poeltl's Unexpected Rise

Jakob Poeltl had a career-defining season before Barnes' return. He averaged a remarkable 39 fantasy points per game, fueled by Kelly Olynyk's absence due to a back injury, leading to 30-plus minutes per night (the most in his career). His consistent rebounding and defensive contributions transformed him from a 71st-ranked player in previous nine-category leagues to a potential top-50 player. His recent three games (30 PTS | 15 REB; 35 PTS | 12 REB; 25 PTS | 18 REB) perfectly illustrate his dominance. His impressive 71.9% field goal percentage in this stretch only adds to his stellar performance. His scoring contributions alone should increase his value to fantasy managers.

The Potential Impact of Barnes' Return on Poeltl

While Barnes' return will likely reduce Poeltl's scoring, his rebounding and defensive impact (stocks) should remain strong. The argument for selling high on Poeltl exists, especially given his recent performances. However, his exceptional contributions might generate significant trade interest from contending teams.

Final Verdict on Poeltl's Fantasy Outlook

All things considered, Barnes’ return shouldn’t affect Poeltl's fantasy value as much as it will Barrett’s. Poeltl's role as a key rebounder and defender is likely to remain consistent. His status as a valuable fantasy asset endures, making him a solid asset regardless of Barnes’ presence on the court.

Gradey Dick: Navigating the Sophomore Slump?

Dick's Offensive Prowess

Gradey Dick exceeded expectations in his second season. His scoring jumped from 8.5 points to 18.7 points per game. While his field goal efficiency improved only slightly (from .545 to .563 true shooting percentage), his increased volume, free throw attempts (4.3 per game), and high free throw percentage (91%) compensated for any efficiency loss. He’s averaging the highest points per touch among Raptors playing at least 20 minutes; demonstrating efficiency in his limited shot opportunities. Dick's mid-range shooting is a significant asset and Barnes' playmaking should allow more three-point opportunities.

Dick's Limitations and the Barnes Factor

However, Dick's scoring decreases when Barnes is on the court. In games with Barnes, he averaged only 12.6 points compared to 15.4 points in games without him. Moreover, he struggles to contribute significantly beyond scoring and three-pointers. While receiving considerable minutes (30+), he averaged just 1.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists over four games playing alongside Barnes, resulting in a low 98th ranking in nine-category leagues. This lack of diverse contributions has impacted his fantasy appeal.

Final Verdict: Dick's Diminishing Returns

Considering his performance and the limitations in his game, many fantasy managers are dropping him, reflected in a 5% decrease in rostership since Wednesday. While his scoring is commendable, the lack of multi-category contributions makes him dispensable in most points and nine-category leagues given Barnes’ return. His role and fantasy value are likely to be curtailed.

The Barnes Effect: A New Era Begins for the Raptors

Scottie Barnes' return wasn't just about individual statistics; it was about changing the team dynamic. The Raptors' 110-105 upset victory over the Timberwolves showcased his immediate impact. In his 27 minutes, he scored 17 points and tallied six assists, demonstrating his court vision and playmaking abilities. His presence elevated the team's energy, resulting in a significant 17-3 run that secured the win. Coach Darko Rajaković praised Barnes' unselfish play, leadership, and ability to improve his teammates' performance. With his return, the Raptors experimented with a line-up that excluded a traditional point guard, demonstrating Barnes and Barrett’s ability to handle the ball-handling responsibilities effectively. This adjustment emphasizes Barnes’ ability to impact the team in various aspects, beyond individual points or assists.

The game also highlighted an important point: While the return of Barnes signals a change in roles for other players, it doesn't diminish their value to the Raptors. The team's success depends on all players contributing in a unique manner. The future of the team, therefore, is a collaborative effort, with players like Barrett and Poeltl adapting to changes and contributing effectively in their positions. The Toronto Raptors (4-12) have begun their journey toward a new era of basketball where Barnes' leadership and ability will help mold this young team into a competitor.