Scottie Scheffler is one day away from a perfect ending to a historic season. After a bogey on the first hole for the second time in three days, Scheffler returned to his dominant form, carding six birdies over his final 17 holes for a 5-under 66 and a five-stroke lead over Collin Morikawa with one round remaining in the 2024 FedExCup season.
Scheffler’s performance is nothing short of expected. He is second in strokes gained: off the tee, second in strokes gained: tee to green, and second in driving distance. He also sits second in strokes gained: putting. His dominance is clearly evident.
Trailing by five strokes, or more, is challenging enough at golf's highest level, but to spot the game's undisputed best player that kind of lead can understandably feel insurmountable.
“I need to make a lot of birdies. He’s the best golfer on the planet. He’s really good with leads,” figured Sam Burns, who is a dozen shots behind Scheffler. “It’s not a great thing for us.”
Long-time Tour Championship observers will point out that Scheffler had a similarly commanding lead heading into the final turn at the 2022 finale only to squander that advantage with a closing 73 to finish tied for second place. But this is not that Scottie.
“It’s really up to him, to be honest. I have to play out of my ‘beep’ to sniff [the lead],” said Xander Schauffele, who began the week two shots behind Scheffler in the starting-strokes format and is now 10 shots back.
Scheffler’s dominance this season is undeniable, having won 7 of his 13 54-hole leads. He is also 4-for-5 this season with 54-hole advantages.
Scheffler’s focus remains on the present, refusing to dwell on past records or look back to the 2022 finale. He has mastered the art of staying in the moment, always leaning into the clichés that have served him so well.
“Keep doing what I’ve been doing, staying in the moment, staying patient out there,” Scheffler said when asked what he needed to do on Sunday to get over the Tour Championship hump. “I feel like I’ve done a lot of stuff well and played solid, so I’m looking forward to the challenge of trying to finish off the tournament tomorrow and continuing to do that.”
Morikawa, on the other hand, faces a formidable challenge. He is the only player who has a realistic chance to catch Scheffler. Social media was quick to point out that without Scheffler’s starting-strokes advantage, Morikawa would be leading by a stroke, but that won’t make Sunday any easier.
“I mean, it’s going to be very hard, but I believe in myself that I can do it. Five shots is a lot, but two-shot swings happen. I think I’ve seen a couple over the past few days,” Morikawa said. “I’ve just got to play my game. I’ve got to go low. I know that. Hopefully I’ve got that in me today. I’ve got 18 holes left to the season. I keep talking about that, but I’m going to put everything I have into these next 24 hours.”
Some players have opined over the last few weeks that Scheffler - with his six Tour victories that include a major (Masters), The Players Championship and, additionally, an Olympic gold medal - was already good enough to claim the circuit’s Player of the Year award, but in the career scorecard it might be Schauffele, with two majors, who had the better season.
Winning the FedExCup and the $25 million that comes with it, might not change that narrative, but it certainly would remove even a hint of ambiguity from the room that Scheffler is in a class by himself.
Closing in on a Historic Season
The Tour Championship is the final event of the PGA Tour season. The top 30 players on the FedEx Cup standings advance to East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, where they compete for the prestigious title and a hefty $25 million prize. This year, Scottie Scheffler comes into the final round with a commanding five-shot lead, putting him on the cusp of a perfect ending to a historic season.
Scottie Scheffler’s dominance at the Tour Championship
Scheffler’s performance in the third round of the Tour Championship solidified his status as the favorite to win. He shot a 5-under 66, extending his lead to five shots over Collin Morikawa. This makes him the clear favorite going into the final round. However, he has a history of squandering leads, particularly in the Tour Championship. In 2022, he had a six-shot lead heading into the final round, only to finish in a tie for second after closing with a 73. This time around, Scheffler is determined to avoid a repeat of that disappointment.
Collin Morikawa’s Challenge
Morikawa is the only player who has a realistic chance of catching Scheffler. He shot a 67 in the third round, finishing strong with birdies on three of his last four holes. However, he will need an exceptional performance in the final round to overcome the five-shot deficit. Even without the starting-strokes advantage, Morikawa acknowledges the difficulty of the task ahead.
The Race for the FedEx Cup and $25 million
The winner of the Tour Championship will be crowned the FedExCup champion and will receive a massive $25 million prize. With a five-shot lead, Scheffler is in a prime position to take home the coveted title and the lucrative prize. For Morikawa, the focus remains on playing his best golf and trying to close the gap. The final round promises to be a thrilling spectacle, with a historic season on the line for Scheffler, while Morikawa fights for a chance to snatch victory from the hands of the world’s No. 1 player.
