A South Coast Showdown with Big Implications
After spending three of the last four years playing at different levels, a South Coast Derby is renewed on Monday when Bournemouth hosts Southampton in the English Premier League. Southampton are currently 19th in the Premier League table after taking only one point from their first five matches, while Bournemouth are 13th with five points in five games. However, Southampton have won two of their last three matches against Bournemouth in the Premier League and three of the last four in all competitions.
There are two schools of thought when it comes to guiding newly promoted teams in the Premier League. Some folks believe it is best to stick with the style that earned you promotion, no matter what, and others would suggest playing things safe and focusing on being hard to beat in order to give yourself the best chance at staying up. The correct answer, as it always seems to be, is likely in the middle. You need to be able to adapt based on your opposition. It’s one thing to play Barcelona-style football against the likes of Plymouth Argyle or Oxford United, but coming up and trying to do it against Arsenal or Liverpool is a recipe for disaster.
It seems as if Southampton is committed to learning that lesson the hard way.
After getting relegated two seasons ago, Southampton turned over the keys to Russell Martin, who focused on getting Saints to play a more possession-oriented style and pass their way through pressure, no matter where they are on the field. That philosophy is fine when you’re one of the more talented teams in the second division, but against Premier League opposition — especially an excellent pressing side like Monday’s opponent, Bournemouth — it is almost self-defeating.
Bournemouth's Pressing Attack Poised to Explode
Bournemouth may not be considered one of the juggernauts in the Premier League, but Antoine Semenyo and the Cherries are on the upswing and have been one of the best sides outside of the top four since this time last season. This is a stylistic nightmare for Saints and could be a rout.
Southampton's Key Player: Tyler Dibling
Southampton have just one point from their first five games, despite having an average of 60% possession across those games. What is heartening for Saints fans is that there are just two teams in Premier League history that have gone down with more than 50% possession average: Wigan 2012-13 under Bobby Martínez and Birmingham 2005-06 under Steve Bruce. That suggests that it is not the system that is Southampton’s problem. But it is still early days yet. This is a huge game for them, and would certainly have been targeted by Russell as a rare away game which is very winnable.
It is not an exaggeration to say that Russell Martin’s Southampton squad tonight is astounding. No strikers but five of them on the bench, alongside just one defender. Will Ryan Fraser, the 5ft4in Scottish dynamo, lead the line? Or will it be Maxwel Cornet, on loan from West Ham, who hasn’t started a Premier League game since January but is in the XI tonight. Aaron Ramsdale, perhaps less astoundingly, starts against his former team.
Tyler Dibling is Southampton’s worst-kept secret. The 18-year-old winger looks a bit special, and not just because he wears his socks lower than Jack Grealish. Dibling took his goal really well in the 1-1 draw with Ipswich after a fine pass from Adam Lallana, and also won a penalty in the defeat to Manchester United. I’m really excited to watch him tonight.
Will Southampton's Possession Obsession Backfire?
We are still very much in the honeymoon phase of 2024-25: after a few dates, there has been a few butterflies, a couple of nervous but excited glances and all that we know at this stage is that we are excited to know more. And in the cases of Bournemouth and Southampton, there is plenty of learn: the home side are still readjusting replacing one expensive striker (Dominic Solanke) with another (Evanilson), as well as a new goalkeeper between the sticks (Kepa), while Southampton are becoming a social experiment into how brave/stupid one football team can be in continuing to play out from the back. The Saints may still be the bookies’ favourites to be relegated, but they came awfully close to their first win of the season last time out against Ipswich – have they turned a corner?
This may not be a traditional ripsnorter of a fixture/date, or particularly romantic, but there is plenty to keep us interested. Just don’t call Bournemouth v Southampton a derby.
The Verdict: Bournemouth to Win
Bournemouth have tinkered a few things since their defeat at Anfield but their XI is more or less as you would expect. Adam Smith comes into the side for Araujo and captains Bournemouth tonight. What a servant the Englishman has been for the club. Evanilson, meanwhile, is still looking for his first Cherries goal.
Our football betting expert offers his Bournemouth vs Southampton predictions and betting tips for their Premier League clash on Monday night. The Cherries and the Saints have combined to win just one of the 10 Premier League games they have contested so far this season but south coast pride means they'll both be doing all they can to land the spoils in this Vitality Stadium showdown.
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Bournemouth's come-from-behind 3-2 success at Everton in August is the only Premier League game either of these local rivals have managed to win this season. Southampton came agonisingly close last time, hitting the front through Tyler Dibling after five minutes only for Ipswich to find a leveller deep into stoppage time at St Mary's.
That Dibling effort was only the second Saints goal in five league games. Bournemouth have netted five times, all of those coming in their first three league games. Since then, they've faced tough encounters against Chelsea and Liverpool. They more than matched the Blues for long spells but conceded late, while at Anfield last week they seemed to have opened the scoring through Antoine Semenyo only for the most marginal of offside calls to deny them.
They have shown more than enough, however, to believe they can trouble a Saints defence without a clean sheet and, in doing so, collect three points that will end a run of six games at the Vitality Stadium without defeat for these visitors that dates back to 2016.
