The Climate Shift Index (CSI), Climate Central’s daily temperature attribution system, applies the latest peer-reviewed methodology to map the influence of climate change on temperatures across the globe, every day. Spain is bracing for another heatwave through the weekend (August 21-26), a heatwave made five times more likely by climate change. Nearly 26 million residents are expected to experience at least a day of temperatures that would be virtually impossible without the influence of carbon pollution.
This is an ongoing event. The entire Mediterranean region has contended with severe temperatures and wildfire outbreaks this summer. In June and July alone, over 60 million people in the Mediterranean experienced temperatures for 20 days or more made at least 5 times more likely by climate change.
Climate Change Amplifies Spain's Heat
From August 21-26, nearly 26 million people in Spain will experience at least one day with temperatures at least 5 times more likely because of climate change. Daily average temperatures are expected to reach Climate Shift Index (CSI) levels of 5 in cities including Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Malaga, Palma, Valladolid, Granada, Getafe, A Coruña, and Alicante.
A CSI level 5 indicates that human-caused climate change made this excessive heat at least 5 times more likely. This means that the heat is an exceptional climate change event.
Temperature anomalies up 5°C above normal are expected in these cities, with anomalies up to 8°C possible in other cities. This means that in some regions, temperatures are expected to be up to 8°C above the usual average for this time of the year.
Maximum temperatures between 32°C and 38°C are expected in many locations across Spain and eastern Portugal. Temperatures may approach 40°C in parts of interior Spain, including Córdoba, Badajoz, and Zaragoza. Climate change makes these forecast temperatures up to 5 times more likely.
Cities Affected by the Heatwave
Here's a breakdown of expected maximum temperatures, anomalies, and the number of days with CSI levels of 5:
| City | Maximum Forecast Temperature (°C) | Maximum Forecast Anomaly (°C) | Date of Maximum Anomaly | Forecast Number of CSI 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 37.6 | 5.3 | August 21, 2024 | 5 |
| Granada | 33.8 | 4.1 | August 25, 2024 | 6 |
| Alicante | 29.1 | 0.6 | August 23, 2024 | 6 |
| Madrid | 36.3 | 4.2 | August 22, 2024 | 3 |
| Palma | 31.8 | 3.5 | August 24, 2024 | 3 |
| Barcelona | 29.3 | 2.4 | August 24, 2024 | 3 |
| Valencia | 31.0 | 1.5 | August 24, 2024 | 3 |
| Malaga | 29.6 | 1.2 | August 22, 2024 | 3 |
| Valladolid | 34.4 | 5.7 | August 23, 2024 | 1 |
| A Coruña | 24.5 | 3.5 | August 23, 2024 | 1 |
Impact of the Heatwave
The forecast of extreme heat may enhance fire weather conditions across the Iberian Peninsula. The wildfire risk in Spain is high for most of the week, particularly in western regions. Since last week, over 800 hectares have burned in Zamora and Trabazos.
Less than a month ago, Spain contended with major wildfires during a late July heatwave. This week’s expected hot temperatures, coupled with extended drought conditions and fire risk in parts of Spain, could pose an even greater threat to freshwater supplies, particularly in areas like Majorca where residents have been advised to conserve water after last week’s severe weather.
Madrid has been experiencing an extended period of extreme heat this summer. Between August 5 and August 10, maximum daily temperature remained above 38°C. Madrid registered warm minimum temperatures on August 9 (25.0°C), August 10 (25.6°C), and August 11 (25.0°C). Barcelona also saw temperatures nearing 40°C, just a few days after setting a new heat record. In Zamora, Spain, an all-time hottest August temperature (41.1°C) was set on August 10.
Human Impact of Heat
Extreme heat has been especially deadly in Spain. In 2023, Spain saw 8,352 deaths attributable to heat, the second highest number in Europe.
Heat mortality data also reveals a markedly higher vulnerability to extreme heat among women and older adults. Specifically, the mortality rate due to heat is 55 percent greater for women compared to men, and 768 percent higher for individuals over 80 years old compared to those aged 65 to 79.
The Future of Heatwaves
Dr. Andrew Pershing, VP of Science at Climate Central, said: “Climate change is transforming summer in Spain into a season of intense, sometimes deadly, heat.”
“The extreme heat expected this week is part of a broader pattern,” said Andrew Pershing. “This summer, Spain has contended with periods of persistent extreme heat made much more likely by carbon pollution. The extreme heat will increase the risk of wildfires and exacerbate challenges from the ongoing drought.”
A Call for Action
The recent heatwave is a stark reminder of the urgent need to address climate change. While the current heatwave may be over, the impacts of climate change will continue to be felt for years to come. It is imperative that we act now to mitigate the effects of climate change and protect our planet for future generations.
Note: This event may continue beyond August 26, 2024. Use the Global Climate Shift Index map to stay updated on heat in your region. See our FAQs to learn about the CSI in both English and Spanish.
