The Springboks could face a significant drop in the World Rugby standings if the top-ranked team lose to the All Blacks in Johannesburg on Saturday.

A win of any kind in the Rugby Championship round three clash will see South Africa surrender top spot and New Zealand could surpass the Springboks on the rankings if they secure a famous win over Rassie Erasmus’ men.

Ahead of the weekend’s action, we run through the ranking permutations with Australia also able to leapfrog past Argentina.

Ranking Permutations

In the case that the All Blacks claim a victory of more than 15 points, New Zealand take one step closer to returning to the top of the rankings for the first time since November 2021.

A defeat to Ireland on 13 November 2021 saw the All Blacks surrender top spot, a position they have not returned to since. However, they will have to claim back-to-back wins in the Republic to secure top spot again as even a win of more than 15 points – which would be their biggest-ever at Ellis Park – will not be enough to replace South Africa.

In the event that Robertson’s mean better the record 23-35 win at Ellis Park from 2022, then Ireland will move into first place with the Springboks crashing down to third and New Zealand moving into second.

A win by 15 points or less will see South Africa surrender top spot to Ireland but they would only fall to second place with New Zealand remaining third.

Meanwhile, the clash at Ellis Park provides the opportunity for South Africa to increase their lead at the top of the standings. A win of 15 points or less would see their ratings points tally stand at 93.37 – creating a 1.25 rating point buffer over Ireland – while a victory of more than 15 points will see their lead extend to 1.38 rating points.

A Chance For Australia To Climb Up The Rankings

In the later kick-off in the Rugby Championship, the Wallabies have the opportunity to not only notch up their first win of the campaign but also the chance of moving up two places.

Australia head into round three of the competition ranked ninth overall and if they are able to topple their hosts by a margin of more than 15 points, they will leapfrog Los Pumas into seventh place with Argentina moving to eigth and Scotland moving up a ranking spot to sixth.

A smaller margin of victory for Joe Schmidt’s men still see them move up a place but by just one as they would switch places with Italy.

As for the Pumas, they cannot improve on their sixth-place ranking but they can close the gap on England in fifth. A victory of more than 15 points would move them to 1.7 rating points shy of England and a win by a smaller margin would see them trail by 1.83 ratings points.

The Pacific Nations Cup

Meanwhile, in the Pacific Nations Cup, Samoa are unable to improve on their current 13th-place ranking regardless of the margin of victory over Tonga.

As for the USA, a victory of more than 15 points over Canada will see them move ahead of Spain in the rankings.

A big away win – of 16 points or more – for Tonga would send them up to 14th place demoting Samoa by three places to 16th while a smaller margin would not be enough for ‘Ikale Tahi to improve their position, but it would still lead to Samoa being replaced in 13th by Japan.

If Canada end a more than a decade wait for a win over the Eagles in the USA, they will become North America’s highest-ranked side for the first time since June 2016. However, the win would have to be an emphatic one to do so with a win of 15 points or less being just enough to surpass Romania and rejoin the top 20 for the first time since 2020. Another defeat on American soil would lead to Canada dropping below Chile into 22nd.

The Battle For Top Spot

The first of two Tests between the traditional rivals in the Rugby Championship will be played at Ellis Park, and in Cape Town a week later.

Following their victory when the two teams met in the 2023 Rugby World Cup final, the Boks are looking to claim three wins in a row over the All Blacks for just the second time in the professional era, matching the record set in 2009.

A New Zealand win this week of any margin will see South Africa surrender their top spot on the global rankings. However, a loss by more than 15 points could cause the world champions to drop to third, with Ireland taking first place and the All Blacks moving up to second.

For the South Africans, victory on Saturday is crucial to maintaining their status. A win by 15 points or less would solidify their lead at the top, while a triumph by more than 15 points would extend their rankings points buffer over the Irish.

The Kiwis, seeking to reclaim the No 1 spot for the first time since November 2021, must secure back-to-back wins in the Republic to overtake the Boks. Even a large victory won’t be enough to dethrone Rassie Erasmus’ charges unless Ireland also drops points.

Looking Ahead To The Future

There could be further changes to the rankings elsewhere, especially if a big away win in Johannesburg is repeated in the other three Test matches taking place this weekend.

Australia, for instance, will move up two places to seventh if they also win by more than 15 points against Argentina in Saturday’s other Rugby Championship fixture in Buenos Aires. Any form of victory would be enough for them to leapfrog Italy into eighth. Argentina cannot improve on their present position of sixth.

Tonga have never won at Apia in the professional era but if they are able to do that, and win well in their opening match in the Asahi Super Dry Pacific Nations Cup, they will overtake Samoa in the rankings. Samoa could fall by as many as three places to 16th in defeat.

Meanwhile, Canada will become the highest-ranked North American team for the first time in nearly eight years if they go and do something that they haven’t done since 2013 – beat the USA on American soil, as long as it is by a margin of more than 15 points.

A smaller margin of victory in Carson, California would still be enough to lift Canada above Romania into the top 20, a position they have not occupied since February 2019. But yet another defeat would see them drop below Chile into 22nd.

Of the home teams, only USA can improve their position in victory. A win by more than 15 points would take the Men’s Eagles above Spain and into 18th place.

Both Pacific Nations Cup matches are being shown live and for free on RugbyPass TV.