Terence Crawford vs. Israil Madrimov: How to Watch, Odds, Prediction and More
After conquering every weight class he’s been in, Terence Crawford is moving up to a new division again. And like usual, he’s taking on the best fighter he can find. But is Israil Madrimov too much too soon for Crawford? Here’s everything you need to know about Terence Crawford vs. Israil Madrimov, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.
Crawford, my No. 1 pound for pound fighter in the world, won a world title at 135 pounds before he moved to 140 pounds and cleaned out the division to become the undisputed champion. Then, he moved to 147 pounds and did the same thing. At lightweight, junior welterweight and welterweight, Crawford has managed to showcase his supreme technical skills and his nasty power.
But now as a 154-pound junior middleweight who’s closer to 40 years old than 30 and who’s trying to take Madrimov’s title on Saturday night in a PPV showdown, will his skill and power continue to sustain him at this higher weight class?
"Whenever boxing’s consensus No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter takes the risk of moving up in weight, mainstream fans see drama. Even if the opponent lacks big-time identity, the extra pounds compute to mystery,” said famed boxing analyst Jim Lampley, who will be part of the PPV.com team that’s broadcasting the event. “Do Crawford’s lengthy unbeaten record and last year’s rampant knockout destruction of perceived elite opponent Errol Spence combine to assure us that a move from 147 to 154 pounds is safe for the unbeaten star? Or will he become just the latest in a long line of stars to follow the allure of money and status into the path of punches that affect him in ways beyond what he expects?
Crawford destroyed Spence a year ago—his most significant victory—and though he probably won’t get the same kind of recognition for beating Madrimov, a relative unknown, this could still be one of his toughest fights. Madrimov is talented, and he has good power. At 154 pounds, it’s unclear how many clean punches Crawford can take from a legit junior middleweight.
"He doesn’t have any weaknesses. I haven’t seen any of those, but I will try to discover some,” Madrimov said. “ . . . I’m not Errol Spence Jr. I am Israil Madrimov. This is my division. He's moving up in weight. I'm the world champion here.”
For Crawford’s part, he says he’s just having fun (and if he wins, he might get a chance at facing Canelo Alvarez).
“I’m ready to fight but all my people always try to remind me to enjoy the moment because one day it’s all going to be gone, so embrace it while you can,” he said.
Here’s more info on the Terence Crawford vs. Israil Madrimov showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on PPV.com (no subscription required) for $79.99 beginning at 6 p.m. ET on Saturday.
The Fight
Unsurprisingly, Crawford is a large betting favorite at -800 (bet $800 to win $100), while Madrimov is the +500 underdog (win $500 on a $100 wager). Last month, Crawford was more like -500 and Madrimov was +350, so I certainly see some value in taking Madrimov’s money line now (to make it worth it, you’d have to think Madrimov could beat Crawford 17 times if they fought 100 times). If you like Crawford, I like the idea of taking him to win by stoppage at -138 (and I like it even better if you take him to win by stoppage in rounds 7-12 at +150).
If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take Crawford to beat Madrimov by stoppage at -138, Jared Anderson to beat Martin Bakole at -190 and Andy Ruiz to beat Jarrell Miller at -320. If you hit all of those, you’d make a $249 profit on a $100 wager.
Crawford’s Career
Crawford (40-0, 31 KOs) doesn’t fight very much any more, but he never seems to show any ring rust. He fought once in 2023, once in 2022, once in 2021 and once in 2020. Boxing would be better off if he competed more often, but considering he’s coming off a one-sided destruction of Errol Spence, Crawford, even at the age of 36, still seems to be in his prime.
Madrimov’s Career
Yes, Madrimov (10-0-1, 7 KOs) only has 11 pro fights, but there’s a reason he’s not as big of an underdog as you might think. He certainly hasn’t been protected. The first fight of his career came against Vladimir Hernandez (who has wins vs. Julian Williams and Alfredo Angulo), and Madrimov also has victories against Michel Soro and the undefeated Magomed Kurbanov to win his junior middleweight title.
Prediction
Plenty of boxing observers have cautioned fans that this will be a much tougher fight than the two boxers’ records might indicate. I can agree with that. Crawford is moving up in weight and fighting perhaps the best in the division, after all. But Crawford is a special fighter. Perhaps the first half of the bout will be even, but Crawford will pull away in the later rounds and finish Madrimov in the 10th round.
