Texas State is a genuine threat to be the Group of 5’s College Football Playoff representative. Following a 49-10 blowout of UTSA, the Bobcats’ offense looks like a juggernaut.
However, Arizona State isn’t half bad.
Behind stud running back Cam Skattebo, the Sun Devils are 2-0 following a 40-point win over Wyoming and a touchdown victory over Mississippi State.
The two teams meet Thursday night in a nonconference game in San Marcos, Texas, with Arizona State entering as a short favorite.
Let’s break down the matchup and offer up a prediction and pick.
(7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Yes, the Sun Devils beat an SEC team last week, but they shouldn’t have won that game.
Mississippi State outgained Arizona State by more than 100 total yards (415 to 292), producing a much higher Success Rate (48% to 43%).
If the Sun Devils hadn’t recovered both of the Bulldogs’ fumbles, they would’ve likely entered Thursday’s matchup 1-1.
They also would have likely entered Thursday’s matchup as underdogs.
My power ratings make Texas State a one-point homefield favorite, representing a three-point differential from the current market price.
The Bobcats returned nine starters from a 2023 offense that averaged 37 points per game (11th nationally) and ranked 15th nationally in Success Rate (48%).
Coach GJ Kinne has done wonders with the offense.
Top back, Ismail Mahdi, returns following a 1,300-yard season, and three of his five starting offensive linemen have come back to create more holes.
The Bobs ranked in the top 20 nationally in Rush Success Rate and Explosiveness last season.
After two games, it looks like the offense might even be better than last year’s after replacing quarterback TJ Finley with Jordan McCloud, who completed 68% of his passes for 3,600 yards for James Madison in 2023.
Texas State is tied for fifth nationally in 30-plus yard passing plays (six) through the first two weeks.
McCloud has been near-perfect (68% completion, 547 yards, five touchdowns), while Mahdi and backup Lincoln Pare have combined for more than 300 rushing yards at nearly 6 yards per attempt.
The Bobcats are firing on all cylinders, and they should roll over an Arizona State defense that ranked 122nd nationally last season in Success Rate allowed, including 130th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Arizona State’s defense, on the other hand, doesn’t look to be improved.
It returned only four starters from last year’s squad and is relying heavily on transfers in the front seven.
Mississippi State has a pass-heavy offense, so understandably, the Bulldogs didn’t produce many rushing yards (24) against Arizona State in Week 1. However, MSU generated almost 9 yards per pass attempt (85th percentile) and 0.37 EPA per dropback (84th percentile) behind journeyman quarterback Blake Shapen.
Imagine what McCloud can do on Thursday night.
I’m worried about Texas State’s defense against Skattebo. The Bobcats were horrendous last season, and the Sun Devil star back has already amassed more than 300 rushing yards at over 7 yards per attempt through two games.
However, nine starters returned from last year’s Texas State defense, including five of the top eight defensive linemen. With more experience, the Bobcats should continue to improve as the season moves along.
The more experienced front seven has already shown improvements. UTSA managed only 66 rush yards on 30 attempts in a brutal 10-point effort last Saturday.
The Bobcats are likely more vulnerable to passing plays, especially chunk passing plays, given that they ranked 126th in Explosiveness allowed last season. However, it’s questionable if Arizona State can throw the football.
New QB1 Sam Leavitt has completed only 57% of his passes through two games.
Against Mississippi State, he went 10-for-20 for just 69 yards at 3.5 yards per attempt, leading to -0.53 EPA per dropback (5th percentile).
At minimum, I’m betting on the better quarterback (McCloud) at home on Thursday.
Arizona State is overvalued entering Thursday’s matchup, and I’m looking to fade them as road favorites against a more complete, well-rounded Texas State squad.
The Bobcats can run, pass and seem to be trending up in the front seven. I’m unsure if Arizona State can do anything but ground and pound behind Skattebo in a potentially poor matchup.
Pick: Texas State +1.5 (-112, DraftKings)
