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Texas vs. Oklahoma: Quinn Ewers Returns, But Can Sooners Pull Off an Upset?

12 October, 2024 - 8:00PM
Texas vs. Oklahoma: Quinn Ewers Returns, But Can Sooners Pull Off an Upset?
Credit: mikefarrellsports.com

One of the most unique atmospheres in college football is here, as Texas and Oklahoma head to Dallas to face off in the Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl. The No. 1 Longhorns (5-0, 1-0 SEC) face No. 16 Oklahoma (4-1, 1-1) on Saturday surrounded by the State Fair of Texas with the stadium split into halves right down the middle – one crimson and one burnt orange.

Texas is looking for revenge on the Sooners after allowing a game-winning touchdown pass from Dillon Gabriel to Nic Anderson with 15 seconds remaining to lose 34-30 in last year's edition. However, Oklahoma will be without Gabriel, who transferred to Oregon, and its top five receivers, who are all out due to injury.

Instead, Oklahoma turns to true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr., who made his first career start in a 27-21 road win over Auburn two weeks ago. Hawkins Jr., who's set to become the first true freshman to ever start the Red River Rivalry for the Sooners, replaced former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold late in the first half of Oklahoma's loss to Tennessee in Week 4.

The Longhorns also return star quarterback Quinn Ewers, who missed Texas' last three games due to injury. Ewers had an open receiver on third-and-14, but he overthrows the receiver, and the pass is intercepted by Billy Bowman. Great start for the Sooners defense.

Texas wants to set the tone early, electing to receive after winning the coin toss. Here we go.

The top-ranked Texas Longhorns (5-0) will try to overcome an obstacle that has given them plenty of trouble in recent seasons when they face the No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners (4-1) in the 2024 Red River Rivalry on Saturday afternoon. Oklahoma has won five of the last six meetings in this rivalry, but it finds itself as a double-digit underdog this year. The Sooners had the week off following their 27-21 win at Auburn to wrap up September, bouncing back from a 25-15 loss to then-No. 6 Tennessee. Texas has won all of its games by at least 19 points, including a 35-13 win against Mississippi State to conclude a three-game homestand in its most recent outing.

Kickoff at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas is at 3:30 p.m. ET. The latest Oklahoma vs. Texas odds via SportsLine consensus list the Longhorns as 16.5-point favorites, while the over/under is 49. Before entering any Oklahoma vs. Texas picks, you'll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks since inception, and is 8-4 on top-rated picks over the past two weeks of this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.

The model has set its sights on Texas vs. Oklahoma. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines for the spread, money line and over/under for OU vs. Texas

Texas has established itself as the top-ranked team in college football by showcasing its talent and depth in every game this season. The Longhorns have played their last two games without star quarterback Quinn Ewers (oblique), who is going to return for this game. Ewers jumped to the forefront of the Heisman Trophy conversation early in the season, completing 73.4% of his passes for 691 yards and eight touchdowns, leading an explosive offense.

Oklahoma does not have nearly as much firepower on offense, especially since it is playing without four of its top five wide receivers due to injury. The Sooners also have a freshman quarterback under center, and he is facing a Texas defense that is allowing the second-fewest points per game (7.0) in the country. While Oklahoma has been winning most of the recent games in this rivalry, Texas has covered the spread in eight of the last 12 editions. See which team to pick here. 

Oklahoma has one of the best defenses in college football, ranked 11th in EPA per play under head coach Brent Venables. The Sooners were able to limit Ewers last season in a game that Oklahoma won 34-30. Ewers is set to see his first action in more than a month, so this is not an easy spot for him to return.

The Sooners have new life offensively under freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr., who had 161 passing yards, 69 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in the win over Auburn. Oklahoma has won seven of the last nine meetings in this rivalry, including last year's upset as a 4-point underdog. This rivalry game is almost always close, and bettors are getting more than two touchdowns with Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon. See which team to pick here. 

The model has simulated Texas vs. Oklahoma 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Oklahoma vs. Texas, and which side of the spread is hitting well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas vs. Oklahoma spread to jump on, all from the advanced computer model that's up well over $2,000 on its top-rated college football spread picks since its inception, and find out.

Week 1 starting quarterback Quinn Ewers missed the past two games with an abdominal strain, but the No. 1 Longhorns didn’t miss a beat behind backup quarterback Arch Manning while soaring to the top spot in both the Associated Press poll and US LBM Coaches Poll.

The Longhorns are a two-touchdown favorite over No. 16 Oklahoma, but this long and spirited series that stretches back to 1900 has been marked by plenty of strange plays and surprises. Can a salty Sooner defense make up for a questionable offense and spring an upset against arguably the most complete Texas team since the Mack Brown era?

Follow along for the latest:

Texas defense holds on its first test. OU's Tyler Keltner misses on a 44-yard field-goal try. Oklahoma coach Brent Venables bypassed a chance to go for it on fourth-and-4, a decision that feels very much like a defensive-coordinator move.

The 120th edition of the Red River Rivalry gets underway this weekend as top-ranked Texas faces No. 18 Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl.

Texas leads the all-time series 63-51-5 but is just 3-7 in the last 10 meetings, including a 34-30 defeat in 2023 for its only regular-season loss. The victory was a sweet revenge for Oklahoma after getting shut out, 49-0, by Texas in 2022.

Oklahoma, which is transitioning at quarterback and could be without some key players Saturday, is an underdog of more than two touchdowns. 

Thus, the Sooners could be destined for a slow start Saturday while they try to adjust to the changes within their personnel.

Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers is making his return to the starting lineup this week after missing two-plus games with a strained oblique.

While backup quarterback Arch Manning admirably guided Texas to back-to-back victories, coach Steve Sarkisian is putting Ewers right back in the saddle.

If Ewers was a quarterback who lacked experience, I’d be concerned about him returning in such a big spot. However, he’s already played in two Red River Rivalry games since winning the starting job in 2022 as a redshirt freshman.

According to Game On Paper, Texas ranks second in Adjusted Expected Points Added (+0.54), while Oklahoma is 49th (+0.08). 

The Longhorns also rank fifth in Net Yards per Play (+3.15) compared to 93rd for Oklahoma (-0.30). As good as Oklahoma’s defense is purported to be, that’s a significant yardage deficit for a team to overcome.

While Texas’ injury report is fairly clean, the Sooners aren’t nearly as healthy.

Top wide receiver Deion Burks, who is suffering from a soft-tissue injury, won’t play Saturday. The junior and Purdue transfer leads the receiving corps in touchdowns (three), yardage (201) and receptions (26).

Burks joins a crowded list of Oklahoma wide receivers who will miss the game, including Jalil Farooq, Nic Anderson, Andrel Anthony and Jayden Gibson. Farooq had 130 receiving yards when the teams met last year and Anderson caught the winning touchdown.

Oklahoma’s wide receiving room is so depleted that it’s even converting some defensive backs to help fill the void.

In addition, the Sooners have a third different starting quarterback following Dillon Gabriel’s departure to Oregon and Brent Venables’ decision to replace Jackson Arnold with Michael Hawkins Jr.

Turnovers played a massive role in the quarterback change, but one has to wonder if Hawkins will be able to hold his nerve as the first true freshman to ever start in a Red River Rivalry game.

While Hawkins is in a difficult spot with so many vital weapons inactive, what he can’t do is turn the ball over. Without his best receivers on the field, it’ll take some time for him to establish a rhythm. 

Moreover, Oklahoma’s running game isn’t great, considering it ranks 94th in Expected Points Added per Attempt (-0.04) and 124th in Rushing Success Rate (32.9%).

The best way to take advantage of this information is to fade Hawkins and the Sooners in the first half.

According to Action Network, the Longhorns are 16-9 against the first-half spread under Sarkisian when laying 10 or fewer points.

This handicap is also further strengthened when coupled with the revenge angle from last season. 

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.

Texas vs. Oklahoma: Quinn Ewers Returns, But Can Sooners Pull Off an Upset?
Credit: foxnews.com
Texas vs. Oklahoma: Quinn Ewers Returns, But Can Sooners Pull Off an Upset?
Credit: usatoday.com
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Texas vs Oklahoma Red River Rivalry Texas Longhorns
Nneka Okoro
Nneka Okoro

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