The recent news that the UK is seeking to ban menthol cigarettes and rolling tobacco by May 2020 and that the US has banned most flavoured vaping cartridges represents a significant problem for smokers. As further regulations are imposed on both traditional tobacco and alternative smoking appliances, smokers are increasingly being guided by government regulations to quit cold turkey. Is there a future for the smoking industry?
The UK Government’s ban on menthol cigarettes and skinny cigarettes is yet another legislation that seeks to curb/reduce the consumption of tobacco, as part of a larger plan to ban flavoured cigarettes. This is the biggest legislation imposed since the 2017 ban on ten-pack cigarettes and is in line with the European Union’s directive that seeks a similar ban on menthol cigarettes.
Meanwhile, the US Government has sought to curb alternative smoking products, primarily vaping consumption. The current administration announced a ban on most flavoured vaping cartridges, with manufacturers such as Juul set to be hit the most as it accounts for the majority of sales. This was brought on by the vaping scandals that erupted out of the country in 2019, including the news that young teens were taking up vaping and the vaping-related illnesses that caused 54 deaths and 2,506 hospital admissions.
The Rise of Alternatives
Nevertheless, the future is not all doom and gloom for the smoking industry. Heat-not-burn technology has been gaining traction recently, becoming FDA approved in April 2019. By heating the tobacco instead of combustion, it produces less tar and therefore consumers receive fewer carcinogens than standard cigarettes. Moreover, the recent regulations feature many loopholes than can be exploited by tobacco and vape companies alike.
Loophole Exploitation and Innovation
The ban on menthol cigarettes and tobacco in the UK is already being curtailed by Imperial Tobacco’s Rizla brand, who has released menthol strips to put into the tobacco – it is marketed as an accessory and therefore falls within the law. Likewise, the ban in the US only covers prefilled pods. Refillable flavour pods are still allowed and in fact a cheaper alternative to pre-filled pods. In the end, whilst further governmental regulations across the globe seek to discourage the consumption of tobacco and vape related products, alternatives through innovation and the exploitation of loopholes by manufacturers will ensure that these industries can still operate, albeit in a more restricted way.
A New Generation of Smokers?
Earlier this year, the debate around smoking was reignited, with policymakers and civil society revisiting how to tackle cigarettes once and for all. The previous government’s Tobacco and Vapes Bill, which has support from the current administration, proposed a “generation ban.” This plan would gradually raise the minimum age for purchasing tobacco by one year, every year, starting in 2027, until no one in the UK could buy tobacco products.
But in fact, smoking among 18-24-year-olds has been declining1 rapidly, and if this trend continues, this age group could be “smoke-free” (less than 5% smokers) by 2028, just a year after the proposed generation ban begins.
The Need for a Balanced Approach
There are 6.4 million reasons to rethink our approach to tobacco legislation.
You might wonder why Philip Morris International (PMI) is involved in this conversation. My answer is very simple: real change requires the involvement of manufacturers like PMI. We’re the only global tobacco company committed to phasing out cigarettes.
Thanks to innovation from manufacturers and government support, viable smoke-free alternatives like vapes have made a significant dent in smoking rates. However, their impact appears to be plateauing — although 74% of smokers have tried vaping, only 32% of these are current vapers, according to ASH’s latest report3. We understand that no single smoke-free product will work for all smokers, which is why embracing the full range of better alternatives is crucial. Unfortunately, too many adult smokers remain unaware of the options outside of vapes. They can’t access them or are confused by false or misleading information — evidenced by ASH’s report showing that 50% of smokers believe vaping is just as harmful as smoking4.
A New Era of Regulation
That’s why, today more than ever, decisive action is needed. Leaders should base laws and regulations on facts and data, keeping pace with technological change and innovation.
We are not asking stakeholders to trust us. We are asking them to trust the science and look at the data behind these smoke-free products.
Cigarettes, as the most harmful form of nicotine consumption, should not be equated with less harmful smoke-free products. What’s needed is a clear, evidence-led strategy that levels the regulatory playing field between the various types of smoke-free products (e-cigarettes, heated tobacco, oral nicotine) and which clearly distinguishes them from traditional cigarettes.
The Future of Smoking
Transparency and inclusion are at the core of modern policymaking, and tobacco control should be no exception, especially given its profound impact on public health.
A smoke-free UK is the public health opportunity of the century, but for the good of the 6.4 million existing UK smokers, it’s time to remove the politics from the debate and work together to give them a chance. And to do that, we must give them a choice.
If you would like to discuss this topic further, please send an email to [email protected]
The Birthdate Phaseout: A Radical Solution
For decades, public health officials and anti-tobacco activists have talked about the “endgame” in tobacco control. It refers to laws and policies that would virtually end tobacco use.
Great strides have been made in reducing smoking in the past half-century. These measures include smoke-free laws, increasing cigarette taxes, anti-smoking media campaigns, state tobacco prevention and cessation programs, and the Master Settlement Agreement requiring the tobacco industry to pay states billions of dollars to compensate for state-incurred health care costs.
Congress restricted tobacco advertising, mandated tobacco warning labels on product packaging, banned flavored cigarettes (except menthol), increased the legal age for sales to 21, and gave the U.S. Federal Food and Drug Administration authority to comprehensively regulate tobacco products including product nicotine content (natural or synthetic).
These efforts have resulted in the reduction in the social acceptability of smoking, especially in public. It has also drastically reduced the percentage of adult smoking to an all-time low nationally of 11%(Indiana is 19%). Adolescent tobacco smoking has also greatly decreased in the past 25 years but unfortunately has been replaced by vaping.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, despite these advances, tobacco use still represents the leading cause of preventable disease and premature death in the U.S. with 521,000 tobacco-related deaths yearly. One in five deaths is caused by tobacco use; one-half of smokers will eventually die from their tobacco addiction.
It’s widely thought that the remaining percentage of people smoking is extremely difficult to reduce, hence the endgame-strategy discussion. One strategy gaining steam is referred to as a “birthdate phaseout” approach. Recent commentaries including an article in the May 30th issue of the New England Journal of Medicine call attention to this age-based strategy.
The idea is to institute a threshold birthdate after which it would be illegal to sell tobacco products to anyone with later birthdates. For example, using a birthdate of January 1, 2009, would prevent individuals currently too young to legally purchase tobacco from buying it their entire lives. Eventually, no one would be able to purchase tobacco, and depending on the law, other nicotine-containing products.
This strategy would not affect tobacco access to those born before the threshold birthdate and current addicted smokers. It would also not sanction those illegally buying tobacco but only the retailers selling it.
The concept of a birthdate phaseout has been circulating worldwide for decades. New Zealand passed such a law in 2022 but subsequently repealed it with change in governmental leadership. The approach is currently being considered in the U.K., the European Union, Norway, Australia, and some Asian countries. In the U.S., Brookline, Massachusetts, enacted a phaseout in 2020, and since being upheld by the state’s Supreme Court as constitutional, it’s being considered by other Massachusetts localities. A municipal law would have relatively little impact; eventually it would have to be followed by state or federal laws to be truly effective.
Legislative proposals differ in what products are prohibited. Some include only combustible tobacco products as in the U.K. Others like Brookline’s are broader and include vapes.
Endgame strategies including the birthdate phaseout could create a tobacco/nicotine-free generation and eventually a society free from tobacco product toxins and carcinogens. Millions of lives and billions in health-care costs would be saved. But there are substantial barriers to enactment such as loss of state tobacco-tax revenue and opposing business and political pressures.
