It might seem odd to talk about whom the Twins should prefer to face in the playoffs, when their own chances of making it are far from certain. But if we're considering the scenario where they do make it, the decision boils down to two opponents: the Baltimore Orioles or the Houston Astros. And the choice is clear.
For much of the season, fans have been eyeing the AL West champion as the better matchup in an eventual playoff showdown. At the time, the AL East runner-up would have likely meant heading to Yankee Stadium, or dealing with the surging Orioles. But now, with the regular season winding down, I'd argue that the Twins should hope for a matchup against Baltimore, as they appear to be the more vulnerable team right now.
At the start of the year, Baltimore looked like a potential juggernaut, jumping out to a 49-25 record. They were in the conversation for the best team in baseball. But since Jul. 1, things have fallen apart for them. They’ve gone 33-39 over that stretch—one of the seven worst records in baseball. Think about how frustrated we’ve been with the Twins' showing since July began (34-38), and yet, the Orioles have been even worse.
Since Sept. 1, things haven’t gotten any better for Baltimore. They're 8-11, and have completely taken themselves out of the running for the AL East title. It’s been a rough go for them, across the board. Since the start of July, they rank 21st in OPS (.710), 19th in starting pitching ERA (4.36), and their bullpen has fallen to 26th in the majors, with a 4.78 ERA. They’re not hitting well, their starting pitching is shaky, and their bullpen—which was once a strength—is now a glaring weakness. They're not getting it done in any phase of the game.
One of the bigger concerns for Baltimore is their lack of playoff experience. They’re loaded with young talent, but they don’t have many players who have performed under the bright lights of October. Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Colton Cowser are incredibly talented, but they’ve only been in the postseason once, and that was last year, when they got swept by the Texas Rangers. It’s hard to bank on unproven players in a playoff series when the pressure ramps up.
Compare that to the Houston Astros. This is a team that has been through everything—deep playoff runs, World Series wins, and the ups and downs that come with postseason baseball. Players like José Altuve and Alex Bregman have delivered in the biggest moments. There’s a certain comfort level Houston brings to the playoffs that Baltimore just doesn’t have. One side last saw the ALCS in 2014. The other has been there in each of the last seven years.
That’s not to say facing the Orioles wouldn’t be challenging. Their ace, Corbin Burnes, is lined up to start Game 1. Burnes is a top-five pitcher in baseball, and he can shut down any lineup on his day. The Twins would have their work cut out for them in that matchup. But if they can survive Game 1, the rest of the series could tilt in Minnesota’s favor. After Burnes, the Twins have a clear advantage in starting pitching. And if they can get into Baltimore’s bullpen, which has been shaky for months, they could take control of the series.
This weekend’s series against Baltimore will give the Twins an opportunity to size up the Orioles, but it’s worth noting that Baltimore might not be playing their top guys with their playoff spot already locked in. Still, it’s a good chance to see how they match up. It will also be a radically different setting than what the two teams would shift to for the playoff series, if it came to that, so the visitors wouldn't be able to extrapolate overmuch from whatever the Twins show. Target Field and Camden Yards play very, very differently.
All in all, if the Twins make the playoffs, their best chance at advancing is probably through Baltimore. The Orioles’ recent struggles, combined with their lack of postseason experience, make them a beatable team. If the Twins can handle Burnes and get to Baltimore’s vulnerable bullpen, they could find themselves moving on in October.
