UFC 306 is just around the corner, and there's plenty of reason to be excited. Not only will the card mark the UFC's debut in the state-of-the-art Las Vegas Sphere, but it will feature some excellent fights.
The top spot will go to a bantamweight title fight, as popular champion Sean O'Malley looks to defend his belt against hard-charging Georgian Merab Dvalishvili. It's an excellent style clash on paper, as O'Malley is a slick knockout artist, his challenger is one of the most relentless wrestlers in MMA and it could go either way.
There will also be a title up for grabs in the UFC 306 co-main event, as flyweight champ Alexa Grasso attempts to defend her belt against former champ Valentina Shevchenko. It will be the third time the pair has fought, after a submission win for Grasso in their first meeting and a controversial draw in their rematch.
Before that, we'll get a fan-friendly featherweight fight between two-time former title challenger Brian Ortega and surging contender Diego Lopes. That will be preceded by a lightweight fight between Daniel Zellhuber and Esteban Ribovics, and a flyweight fight between Ronaldo Rodriguez and Ode Osbourne.
Here's how the B/R combat sports squad sees it all going down.
Haris Kruskic: Nothing's more celebratory of Mexican Independence Day than a U.S. event presented by Saudi Arabia headlined by an American and Georgian. Let's dive in!
I feel like such a hater whenever it's time to pick a Sean O'Malley fight because I almost always lean the other way. It's just hard to see him winning this matchup outside of a knockout. The problem with that is Merab Dvalishvili has never been knocked out in 21 pro fights. He is relentless with his wrestling, dictating where every bout has gone during a commendable 10-fight win streak.
This will have to be another "I'll believe it when I see it" performance from the Suga Show.
Prediction: Dvalishvili by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: I couldn't have said it better than Haris.
At this point, I definitely believe the O'Malley hype—the guy is good—but this looks like a nightmare matchup for him. His takedown defense is probably the biggest gap in skill set, and while Dvalishvili actually has a pretty poor takedown success rate, at 36 percent, he is utterly relentless and has actually attempted more takedowns than he has minutes in the Octagon, which is wild.
Unless he gets sparked—which is possible against a sniper like O'Malley—Dvalishvili is going to get this fight to the mat, over and over. He's never been much of a finisher, so don't expect a sub or TKO, but it'll be enough to get a decision.
Prediction: Dvalishvili by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: I get the hesitation to ride with the champion in this one. And I agree that this challenger presents a particular problem for O'Malley because he's got a bottomless gas tank and is particularly difficult to dissuade.
But the kid is special for a reason. There was little reason to believe he could handle a guy as complete as Aljamain Sterling. There was little reason to believe he'd find a way to overcome his boogeyman in Marlon Vera. Until he did.
It'll happen again here. Merab will approach. Suga will see an opening. The fight will be over.
Prediction: O'Malley by KO, Rd. 3
Haris Kruskic: Alexa Grasso shocked the world last year when she submitted the dominant Valentina Shevchenko. Six months later, Grasso fought to a controversial draw in the rematch and held on to her flyweight championship. A year after that, we finally get the trilogy fight.
It's wild to think Shevchenko hasn't won a fight in more than two years. It's almost long enough to make you forget how incredible her title run was. Almost.
Although the momentum isn't on her side, I'm going with Shevchenko to become the first two-time women's flyweight champ. This is essentially a toss-up, but something tells me Valentina won't go quietly into the night.
Prediction: Shevchenko by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: It's a shame we had to wait so long for this trilogy, especially because it was all so Grasso and Shevchenko could serve as coaches on The Ultimate Fighter, which is totally played out and probably should have been canceled eight or nine seasons ago at least.
Thankfully, it's finally happening, which will allow these two great flyweights to settle their rivalry, and other deserving contenders like Manon Fiorot to get their shot at the belt.
It's hard to pick against a fighter like Shevchenko, who is as well-rounded as they get, but I'm still going with Grasso. The current champ seems to have hit a new level, as evidenced by the outcomes of her first two fights with Shevchenko. I'm expecting a close, back-and-forth fight, but we'll hear "and still" at the end.
Prediction: Grasso by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: This is the UFC. Superstars whose hunger has faded sometimes find themselves on the short ends against unheralded challengers. These things do happen. So that explains what occurred the first time Shevchenko faced Grasso.
The second time, though, the former champion got ripped off. And if you don't think she's hungry to set the historic record straight against a fighter who won't be remembered as an equal, think again.
It'll look like a lot of the "Bullet's" pre-Grasso defenses. Which means it won't be particularly close.
Prediction: Shevchenko by unanimous decision
Haris Kruskic: Credit to Brian Ortega for taking this fight. He doesn't have much to gain by beating Diego Lopes, who's nine spots below him in the rankings. Still, it would be impressive to defeat a rising contender and cement himself as one of the featherweight division's best.
Although this is a huge step up for Lopes, momentum is a real factor in fights. There are few people on the entire UFC roster with more momentum than Lopes right now. Look for him to surge up the line of contenders waiting on a shot at Ilia Topuria.
Prediction: Lopes by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: I know we're all super high on Diego Lopes right now—and deservedly so—but I think we're forgetting how good Brian Ortega is. He can do everything Lopes can do, both on the mat and on the feet, and he's been doing it against amply superior opposition.
I agree with Haris' comment about momentum. It matters in the fight game. But so does experience, and even though Ortega actually has fewer fights than Lopes, he has far more experience at the top level.
Veteran craftiness carries Ortega to a win that will shock many fans—and maybe a bonus.
Prediction: Brian Ortega by submission, Rd. 2
Lyle Fitzsimmons: I agree with both of my colleagues here. Haris is correct that momentum is huge, and that Lopes certainly has it. Meanwhile, Tom is correct in that people may be forgetting just how good Ortega is.
Remember, he seemed just seconds away from a UFC title when he seized Alexander Volkanovski's neck in their bout before "The Great" survived, escaped and turned the tables. It's not been that good for him since, but not because he's lost his mojo.
Feels like everyone will get a reminder come Saturday.
Prediction: Ortega by unanimous decision
Haris Kruskic: This will be a treat. Daniel Zellhuber and Esteban Ribovics are two explosive strikers with a lot to prove as unranked prospects. Although their placement on the main card may feel strange, the UFC is banking on violence to excite the fans.
I'll give the slightest of edges to Zellhuber for being a more technical striker, but this could easily be a bloodbath.
Prediction: Zellhuber by split decision
Tom Taylor: I think we were all hoping to see bigger names on the main card of the UFC's debut in the Sphere, but Haris is right: This is a great matchup on paper.
Both prospects are great strikers with killer instinct, and they've shown they can end things on the mat too, so a finish is definitely possible. However, I think they're both good enough that the fight will go the distance, and if it does, it's going to be close.
Prediction: Prediction: Zellhuber by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: It's no stretch to suggest only the top three fights on the main card actually belong there. But the ones that seem out of place often wind up as the best of the bunch.
That could be the case here with two guys on the rise and eager to work their way to the marquee. Haris says Zellhuber is the more skilled technical striker, and I tend to agree. And I think it'll allow him to find a decisive sequence that'll lead to a finish.
Prediction: Zellhuber by TKO, Rd. 2
Haris Kruskic: Unlike Zellhuber-Ribovics, I can't get behind this fight being on the main card over Raul Rosas Jr. Yes, Ronaldo Rodriguez is an intriguing Mexican prospect, but Rosas is a significantly bigger name. UFC opening the prelims with Rosas does give a fan reason to tune in early, but that's tricky when the main card opener features two fighters most fans aren't very familiar with.
Anyways, Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode Osbourne feels like very intentional booking on the UFC's part. Osbourne is a striker with poor submission defense. Meanwhile, Rodriguez is a very good grappler who's always looking for a submission. He's being called on to kick Mexican Independence Day off with a bang at Noche UFC.
Prediction: Rodriguez by submission, Rd. 2
Tom Taylor: I like watching Ode Osbourne fight, but I don't have a lot of faith in him. He's got really poor submission defense, and he's also been finished with strikes a handful of times. Against a guy like Rodriguez, who has seven wins by submission and five by knockout or TKO, that's probably going to be a factor.
I see Rodriguez punching in and punching out in a matter of minutes.
Prediction: Rodriguez by submission, Rd. 1
Lyle Fitzsimmons: This one, more so than any of the others, seems like the one that doesn't belong. It doesn't have the biggest names or the most interesting prospects and seems far more likely to go according to chalk. Rodriguez has a knack for finding finishes and Osbourne has a less desirable knack for finding himself on the wrong ends of those results.
Prediction: Rodriguez by submission, Rd. 1
